Part of a Chinese rocket is due to fall from its uncontrolled orbit over the next few days, and it’s not the first time this has happened. The 23-ton Long March 5B rocket that launched on Monday, bringing up part of the Chinese space station.Of that, it’s expected that at least 5 tons of the tumbling rocket section will make its way to the earth’s surface.But it needs to be said, there are so many variables. Predicting the exact time and location of reentry is a moving target.”It’s kind of like a hurricane. When we get closer to the actual event, we will know a lot more about its path. We have an error right now of about 16 hours,” Lael Woods of the Aerospace Corporation said. “Most of the track that it’s covering is either uninhabited land or water.”That’s a lot to work with as the uncontrolled orbit of this rocket part circles the globe once every 90 minutes.China’s risk margin for space debris reentering earth is 10 times that of NASA and other space agencies.Most, like SpaceX’s Falcon9 rocket, go into a controlled burn so that the rocket part disintegrates when it’s falling from orbit.In the past, NASA has said that China has failed to meet responsible standards. They could have fired engines for a controlled burn but did not this time.”It would have cost them some money, it would have cost them some payload on the module. And so they just don’t care enough about the public risk to do that,” Smithsonian astronomer Jonathan McDowell said. He went on to say that these types of rockets will probably be phased out over the next few years, so space debris falling to Earth won’t be around for the long term.
Part of a Chinese rocket is due to fall from its uncontrolled orbit over the next few days, and it’s not the first time this has happened.
The 23-ton Long March 5B rocket that launched on Monday, bringing up part of the Chinese space station.
Of that, it’s expected that at least 5 tons of the tumbling rocket section will make its way to the earth’s surface.
But it needs to be said, there are so many variables. Predicting the exact time and location of reentry is a moving target.
“It’s kind of like a hurricane. When we get closer to the actual event, we will know a lot more about its path. We have an error right now of about 16 hours,” Lael Woods of the Aerospace Corporation said. “Most of the track that it’s covering is either uninhabited land or water.”
That’s a lot to work with as the uncontrolled orbit of this rocket part circles the globe once every 90 minutes.
China’s risk margin for space debris reentering earth is 10 times that of NASA and other space agencies.
Most, like SpaceX’s Falcon9 rocket, go into a controlled burn so that the rocket part disintegrates when it’s falling from orbit.
In the past, NASA has said that China has failed to meet responsible standards.
They could have fired engines for a controlled burn but did not this time.
“It would have cost them some money, it would have cost them some payload on the module. And so they just don’t care enough about the public risk to do that,” Smithsonian astronomer Jonathan McDowell said.
He went on to say that these types of rockets will probably be phased out over the next few years, so space debris falling to Earth won’t be around for the long term.
