By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Sedge Warbler, Uitkerkse polder, Vlaamse Gewest, Belgium. “Elevation (m): 4. Habitat: reed in meadows . Confidence in ID: 100%. ID determined by: seen.” * * * In Case You Might...
Doing a great imitation of Neville Chamberlain. Source: Aaronson (2024). Don’t have a transcript, but here are excerpts from Senator Theoden’s website. * Théoden Reference is to reign during period of Grima’s tenure as security adviser. For more on Senator Theoden,...
Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”. I laughed and laughed and laughed. Maybe he was determined, but he had, like Peter Navarro,...
Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate? Source: CME accessed 6/12, 6/13/2024, 1:30pm CT. The trajectory of Fed funds implied by...
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity...
Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m). Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green). Source:...
Conventional and Instantaneous The unweighted average of unemployment rate and inflation rate is ad hoc. Here’s the conventional using y/y CPI: Figure 1: Unemployment rate (blue bar) and y/y CPI inflation (tan bar), in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates...
1. Are border crossings really at an all-time high? Maybe not. 2. Some detail on who pays whom in OpenAi and Apple (Bloomberg). Not everything in the article is clear to me, but it seems at first no one is...
The Financial Times had a bizarrely long article earlier this week about the departure of Mustafa Nayyem, recently the Chairman of Ukraine’s Restoration and Infrastructure Development, which elicited commentary from Alexander Mercouris (I had also noticed when I had encountered...
Argentina President Javier Milei’s economic reform package won a key victory when the Senate approved his omnibus bill Thursday but additional income tax legislation was rejected following debate marred by violent protests that broke out earlier in front of congress. After...
