ECONOMY

Year in Review, 2024: Mendacity and Economic Incompetence, Equal Parts


I thought I was getting a little jaded, but the likes of Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, the WisGOP, and Steve Kopits reaffirmed my faith in how much work remains.

January:

WIsconsin GOP argues Wisconsin was in recession, using a 2 quarter rule (which is no longer applicable with revised data):

WisGOP Can’t Count

For the gazilionth time, there’s a reason we don’t declare recessions on the basis of GDP.

Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP, latest vintage (blue), and as of January 2024 (tan), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Search: BEA.

 

February:

Zerohedge uses a very specific definition of ex ante real interest rates.

ZeroHedge Goes Adaptive Expectations

March:

Think before reporting startling numbers!

Math Is Hard!

April:

The truth in black and white:

Best Proposed Amendment *Ever*

May:

I can’t understand how some people can look at a graph, and “can’t see” the obvious.

“You have to look pretty hard to find the “trade war” effect in the data”

Bonus: Best graphic

Maury Obstfeld: “Trump’s plans for the Fed and the dollar are a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s.”

 

June:

Grocery price assessments from somebody who’s probably never gone grocery shopping.

“Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”

July:

What the heck is “QCES”? And, pay attention to the footnotes – is the series seasonally adjusted or not.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/maciver-institute-the-real-wisconsin-economy

 

August:

Nativism goes to economics as practiced by Heritage:

The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage

September:

My first encounter with Oren Cass’s writing on trade…

“It’s almost as if you have no economics training at all…”

October:

Ready for the Journal of Irreproducible Results.

Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting

Sequel:

Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022

November:

I’m convinced!

Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”

 

December:

Another installment in X-FIles – stats edition:

DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”

 

Looking forward to 2025, and Heritage, ZeroHedge, and more examples of bad analysis to use as case studies in my stats class.

 

 

 

 

 



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