RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Source: RCP, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT.
PredictIt, the only platform able to operate in the US, is excluded from the RCP average now (it wasn’t a couple weeks ago), and has Harris-Trump at 58-45, up by 13 cents.
Source: PredictIt, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT.
Clearly, not all markets are asking the same question, and each platform has different constraints (betting limits, where operable, etc.). Still, this seems like a large gap (6 cents vs. 13 cents).
By the way, despite differences in the early days of the Harris campaign, seemingly near-equivalent bets are registering similar odds now: 58-45 Harris over Trump, 59-44 for Democrats over Republicans for White House, 58-42 Harris is 47th President.
