When I was briefly in Venezuala, my client’s joint venture partner described a politician as someone who would get in front of a mob and call it a parade. I first thought to use it to describe how the US, at least per recent major media stories, is attempting to depict Iran’s failure to (yet) strike back at Israel over its assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran as the result of US diplomacy.
While we’ll discuss the patent ridiculousness of this claim in more detail, it would be foolhardy for Iran to move in haste, which is what acting by now would amount to. Among other things, Iran has coalition partners, in the form of other members of the Axis of Resistance. In the past, they have only coordinately loosely and have not even always informed each other in advance of big moves, notably Hamas not alerting Iran to its October 7 attack. We can see from the US dealings with NATO members over Ukraine that this process is like herding cats. And NATO has an existing organization and one hopes, decision structure (although Aurelien described long form in a recent post, really not for the sort of activities NATO fancies to take on).
So delay here could solely be due to a Middle Eastern version of nenawashi,1 of reaching consensus. The idea that the US, which not only can’t curb Israel, but regularly has its welfare state Ukraine misbehave, can influence Iran is absurd. So the only was the Venezuela quip work is to elaborate on it: the US is trying to get in front of a mob and call it a parade but is so clueless that it does not see that it is at the tail end and the mob is moving the other way.
So let’s use a well-known American image instead:
The Oz schtick includes intimidating settings, threat displays, and comprehensive information.
Today the looming threat of the Iranian (and Hezbollah and Hamas) retaliation is barely a news item in the Anglosphere media. Admittedly American have the attention span of goldfish, and it could be some time before Iran acts, between needing to get its allies on the same page and agree on tactics and targeting, organizing the related logistics, and shoring up defenses likely to on the “to do” list. In keeping, the Western media has largely ignored Iran getting its allies on the same page, via calling an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which took place Wednesday in Jeddah. Importantly, Saudi Arabia issued a second condemnation of the Haniyeh killing in addition to joining the official statement, which included deeming “Israel, the illegal occupying power, fully responsible for this heinous attack.”
But the US is trying to persuade anyone paying attention that it is having a significant effect on Iranian decisions. This comes after repeated and embarrassing examples of not even being able to get Israel to pretend it respects US entreaties. The assassination of Hamiyeh, a, perhaps the, Hamas chief negotiator was a slap in the face to Biden and Blinken, who have been doggedly depicting the fantasy of a ceasefire as something that might get done. In a bizarre display of desperation, one recent peace plan iteration, which was no different than the old ones, was depicted by spokescritters as an Israel plan. Aside from that being obviously false, Israel’s pointed silence was confirmation. The Administration soon admitted it was a Biden scheme.
Iran and even more so Hezbollah are well aware of the potential economic and social costs of precipitating a wider war. That is why there responses have been, to use the cliche, measured, meaning they have either amounted to tit for tat or modest escalation. So for the US to act as if they somehow have educated Iran and its fellow Axis of Resistance members on this matter is remarkable, yet sadly typical, arrogance.
The Washington Post took the lead in telegraphing this new US party line on Tuesday, in Biden scrambles to defuse the ticking Iran-Israel time bomb. This article was depicted as “opinion” because it cam in spook whisperer David Igantius’ column. Representative sections:
President Biden… has conducted an intense round of diplomacy and military preparation to stave off a catastrophic war in the Middle East.
The White House effort has included back-channel talks with Iran to urge restraint, blunt warnings to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to obstruct a cease-fire in Gaza, and the dispatch of a U.S. naval and air armada to protect Israel and other U.S. allies if deterrence fails….
The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response…
Tehran may also be dissuaded by the U.S. show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations. “Iran understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official messaged me.
The spin is mighty thick. The claim that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb first came implausibly fast via the New York Times, followed by an even more implausible version in the Telegraph (the latter being highly suspect by the number of sources it claimed to have from the Iran government).
By contrast, Arab news accounts cite eyewitnesses saying a projectile hit the guest house. And Alastair Crooke describes how a colleague was in the same building when Haniyeh was killed. At 13:10, Crooke recounts how the impact took out one section of the side of the building and part fo the roof and was clearly an external impact, not a bomb.
The fact that US sources can posture with straight faces that Iran is confused over what happened in its own guest house, when it is perfectly capable of doing forensics, is an insult to Iran as well as reader intelligence.
We highlighted early that in the same Judge Napolitano show (see at 17:15), that Muslim states and much of the Global South have concludes that “The West wants war.” To Iran, that means further appeasement in the form of negotiated and limited retaliation is no longer on, since the Western media has consistently depicted Iran being measured as an admission of weakness. That was confirmed in the very same Washington Post the following day with this story:
As we and others have recounted long form, the Iran attack was very successful and should have put Israel back on its heels. Under textbook conditions, with Iran attacking only pre-agreed military targets, Iran struck every one with pinpoint precision, defeating Israeli defenses at its best-protected sites. Yet the media hypes the fact that Iran sent a wave of 300 very slow moving and cheap drones, that were meant to draw fire and reveal more about the US, Israel, UK and French and were all destroyed, is perversely presented as a victory to divert attention from the damage done by more powerful missiles, as intended. If any of the drones had gotten through, that would have been a sign of serious Western weakness as opposed to Iranian strength.
Now this piece could merely signify that the US officials are so deluded that they think counterparties in the Middle East will heed what they say, which given Blinken, is entirely possible. Or that they are going into overdrive to try to calm nerves after the market indigestion early in the week.
But there’s an additional sign of US over-obvious eagerness to delay Axis of Resistance action. From a new story in the Wall Street Journal, Biden, Leaders of Egypt and Qatar Urge More Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Next Week. The subhead ought to elicit derision: The countries say they are prepared to offer a proposal to bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas.
After Israel assassinated Haniyeh and now finance minister Ben Smotrich further poisoning the well by depicting Israel as justified in starving all Gazans but hindered by international pressure, the US has the gall to act as if a ceasefire is anything other than a fantasy? Israel’s government wants genocide. The only point for them for a ceasefire would be to give the IDF a breather so they could regroup and then better do more of the same.
A careful reader will discern that this trio is selling vaporware:
In a joint statement issued Thursday, the leaders urged Israel and Hamas to meet for negotiation on Aug. 15, an invitation the U.S. says Israel has welcomed…
Officials didn’t provide details of the proposal that the three leaders said in their statement could resolve “remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.”
It seems that the US is pumping for yet more useless negotiations as a delaying tactic. I can’t imagine Hamas will fall for that, and could take the Russian posture that talks and military action run on independent tracks. After all, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Israel only very briefly halted the prosecution of the war at a few points for humanitarian relief.
These stories all fail to give much (or any) weight to the real deterrent, that Israel uses an Iran/Axis of Resistance attack as the pretext for firing a tactical nuke. Israel used the deaths of Druze schoolchildren, a population that Israel has never much cared about, in what was almost certainly collateral damage from Israel air defenses against a Hezbollah attack, as the pretext for assassinating Hezbollah official Fuad Skukr. So Israel has already established it will use just about any justification for escalation. The implication is that if Iran does anything other than engage in yet another puppet show response, Israel could go whole hog.
The US flogging yet more pointless talks might also be to buy Israel and the US more time to prepare, particularly since US military assets all over the Middle East are exposed. A projectile strike on the Iranian government guest house would seem to require US targeting assistance, making the US a co-belligerent.
Given the givens, it would behoove Iran to act quickly….if it can get all its moving parts lined up, which is not a trivial task. But Lawrence Wilkerson argued that there are some Axis of Resistance plays that would not be hard to tee up, yet could be very effective. He suggested firing 150 missiles a day, every day. That level of steady barrage would drain Israel and the US of air defenses in theater in a very few months, while Iran and its friends could keep up that pace for easily a year.
Even so, Israel would work out soon enough that it would be rendered defenseless. Does it then fire its nuclear missiles? It seems with armageddon as the Israel trump card, the only possible successful countermeasure would be widespread fire/targeting suppression and perhaps a devastating first strike. The Russians have already sent Iran a very powerful electronic warfare device.
Have Russia or Iran tested any electromagnetic pulse bombs so that they too could be deployed?
In other words, Iran is the antithesis of reckless. The stakes are high and potentially existential But Iran also knows following the Western tame retaliation ploy is a sucker’s game. How they square this circle is over my pay grade. The balance of factors suggests they will move as soon as they possibly can. But that still may wind up being a bit of a way away.
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1 My Japanese colleagues translated it as “patting the roots” as in making sure a newly-planted tree was in properly-prepared dirt. Contrary to Western images of the Japanese, this process was not at all nice. But grievances and concerns were aired and fixes and horse trades made.
