GDP, GDO, GDP+:
Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ scaled to equal GDP at 2019Q4. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.
Note that none of these series evidences two consecutive quarters of negative growth (GDP evidences one quarter).
What about forward looking indicators? Nowcasts indicating continued growth are depicted here. Consumption, which accounts for about 68% of GDP, nowcasted by the Atlanta Fed to grow 3% in Q4.
Figure 2: Consumption (bold black), and nowcasted consumption (light blue), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed (11/27), and author’s calculations.
As I observed on Marketplace yesterday, the consumer seems very resilient, in the aggregate.
So, the recession has not appeared as of October’s data, and output seems to be growing into Q4. Consumption, which is a forward looking indicator in the permanent income hypothesis, also signals continued growth.
