Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s assessment of the threshold for national recession based on this indicator.
How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Here’s the m/m change, by state.
Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):
Source: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by author.
For reference, y/y national NFP growth was 1.5%. Hence, five of seven battleground states were above the national average, with Michigan lagging.
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