Hugh has four Friday selections online for day four of Royal Ascot – live on Sky Sports Racing – including two each-way plays in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes
Shadow Dance finished his three-year-old career firmly on the upgrade, and although it might be a stiff task to win a Royal Ascot handicap on his seasonal debut, he appeals as the type to possibly develop into something better than a handicapper at some stage and might still be well treated in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (4.25) off his revised mark of 94.
He looks something of a slow burner, unraced as a two-year-old and then achieving fair form in three starts in maidens during the first half of 2023.
He won by a wide margin on his handicap debut following a three-month break, still giving the impression he was learning and taking a while to hit his stride before forging clear.
He travelled much more sweetly on his final start in the valuable and competitive Old Borough Cup at Newmarket, finishing second to another progressive handicapper in Alkasib. There was a four-length gap to Irish raider Satin, who had won a valuable Leopardstown handicap in clear-cut style on her previous start, and the next four home, who were all beaten at least 11 lengths, all finished first or second on their next start.
The ground was on the soft side of good that day, but his Haydock win came on quick ground and I think there’s a chance he’s just a progressive performer regardless of ground.
It’s a concern that he makes his seasonal debut here given his trainer had stated earlier in the season that he wanted to get a run into him prior to Royal Ascot, but the stable’s Perotto ran right up to his best in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday despite lacking a recent run, and Shadow Dance might be able to take another step forward.
Rochelle was selected in this column prior to her latest run in France, and although things didn’t work out for her then, I think the different set-up of the Sandringham Stakes (5.05) could see her bounce back and she makes each-way appeal at big prices.
Contesting a Listed event at Longchamp earlier this month, she was ridden prominently in a steadily-run race and was a bit too keen in the early stages, and had little left in the closing stages, finishing fourth.
That was in contrast to her two wins over 7f on the all-weather, where on each occasion she was notably strong at the finish having raced behind the leaders.
She recorded a fast time when landing the second of those wins at Kempton on her first start for her current stable, and on the assumption that she’ll be ridden more conservatively this time, she might outrun her odds by a fair way.
I’ve had Billy Webster in mind for the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (6.15) since his win at Southwell in January, and even though he doesn’t have the typical profile of a Royal Ascot three-year-old handicap winner, he looks well worth backing each-way in the belief this test will suit him well.
His form took off when cheekpieces were fitted last winter, creating a big impression when winning at Wolverhampton and then following up easily in a fair time figure at Southwell.
He has had excuses on all three subsequent starts on account of track, trip or both. In particular, reverting to a straight 5f in the three-year-old Dash at Epsom last time (when the cheekpieces were replaced by blinkers), he shaped much better than the bare result under his 5lb claimer, bumped at the start and then forced ever wider in a race dominated by horses racing close to the stands rail; it’s worth watching his run compared with the other half dozen or so horses that raced towards the centre of the track, as he beat them by a considerable margin by 5f standards.
This is the strongest race he has encountered to date, but a truly-run race on the straight 5f here might bring out the best in him and I think he has a better chance of making an impact than his odds imply.
The other one I like in this race is Vantheman, who is clearly much-improved this year since dropping to 5f and seemed to run a huge race when runner-up at the York May meeting.
It appeared to be an advantage to race more towards the far side in the straight at York that day, with the first four in the Marygate Stakes (the only other race on the straight track) all ending up close to the far rail.
The first, third and fourth in Vantheman’s race were the three horses that raced closest to the far rail throughout, whereas Vantheman had to lead the pursuit of the higher-drawn horses towards the stands side of the group.
He travelled just about best and pulled almost five lengths clear of all the other horses that were drawn in double figures. I thought he might have beaten the winner Jubilee Walk had they raced on the same part of the track, and on 5lb better terms I’m surprised at the disparity in their prices at the time of writing, so Vantheman looks worth backing each-way.
Write up for ante-post selection Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes (written on Tuesday May 21):
I’m quite keen on the chance of Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot next month following her win in the Group 3 fillies’ event at Naas on Sunday.
She was sent off at cramped odds at Naas to reverse course-and-distance form with Sparkling Sea, having been palpably green and also shaped as if she needed the run for fitness on that racecourse debut.
She had to overcome adversity to do so, travelling well but short of room two furlongs out, and whilst Ryan Moore was switching her and then straightening her up, Sparkling Sea’s rider had kicked for home and already used the whip four times.
In the circumstances Fairy Godmother did well to make up the ground and win a shade cosily, leaving the impression she was value for a lot more than the winning margin suggests. It’s perhaps not surprising that she showed so much improvement from her debut, as O’Brien now has a 3-3 record with second-time-out two-year-olds this year, compared with just 1-10 on debut.
Hugh Taylor fancies Fairy Godmother
The visual impression was backed up by the clock. Fairy Godmother’s winning time was 0.69 seconds slower than that of her 108-rated stable mate Bucano Fuerte, who made all in the three-year-old Group 3 event later on the card, but she was 0.62 seconds faster over the final 3f despite the trouble in running she encountered.
The previous day Godolphin’s Mountain Breeze had been installed as favourite for the Albany Stakes having recorded a wide-margin win under a penalty in a novice event at Newmarket, but to my mind the Naas form has much more substance to it and I think the market has the two fillies the wrong way round in terms of price at the time of writing.
Moreover, that Naas race is becoming an increasingly key trial for Royal Ascot since reverting to Group 3 status five years ago. The speedy runner-up in 2021, Quick Suzy, won the Queen Mary Stakes on her next start, and the last two years’ winners, Meditate and Porta Fortuna, both won the Albany Stakes next time.
It’s not surprising that the race is working out well as it’s the only Group race run before Royal Ascot and the winner is able to run at the Royal meeting without having to carry a penalty.
Fairy Godmother looks to have plenty of size and scope and looks very much the type to progress towards Group 1 events later in the year. It’s worth pointing out that with a month to the race there is plenty of time for further strong candidates to emerge, including perhaps some that haven’t yet run, but Fairy Godmother looked to establish strong credentials on Sunday and at this stage she looks the one to beat, with her trainer having confirmed the Albany Stakes as her likely target.
Watch every race from Royal Ascot live on Sky Sports Racing this week.
