Monday, December 23, 2024
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ECONOMY

On the Second Trump Assassination Attempt: What We Know So Far

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

I believe I’ve mentioned that 2024 will be volatile? Here’s perhaps the best headline for the story dominating today’s news: “Trump was on the links taking a breather from the campaign. Then the Secret Service saw a rifle“:

For the second time in just over two months, someone apparently tried to shoot Trump and came dangerously close to the former president in that effort — within 500 yards Sunday, law enforcement officials said. This time, the gunfire came from the Secret Service, before the suspect could get any shots off at his target… Secret Service agents immediately used their bodies to shield Trump and moved him to the golf course’s clubhouse, where he remained until he went back to Mar-a-Lago about 15 minutes away… “It was certainly an interesting day! ” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday night. He effusively thanked law enforcement for keeping him “SAFE.”

The alleged shooter has been identified as “Ryan Wesley Routh” (hereafter, “Routh,” with “alleged” always implied, since he has not been formally named or charged, as of this writing).

Rumors swirl. Memes go viral. Yarn diagrams are woven. Accounts are closed. Officials issue denials. In this post, I will summarize the attempt, give a potted biography of Routh, and present links to Routh’s volumunous writings on social media (and his one book). I will then summarize Routh’s political affiliations (all over the map), ask some obvious questions about the assassination attempt, consider whether “stochastic terrorism” provides an adequate account and tug on some loose ends, and conclude. Caveat: A lot of what follows, and especially the section on Routh’s writing, is digital evidence from social media. I’ve done my best to vet it, but — putting on my tinfoil hat, here — that would be hard to do with a truly professional product. One oddity is that the previous would-be Trump assassin, Thomas Crooks, had virtually no social media presence and encrypted his communications. Routh, by constrast, is garrulous to the point of logorrhea. Introvert vs. extrovert, perhaps.

Routh’s Attempt

CNN provides an excellent timeline of the shooting:

  • Gunshots during golf: Trump was moving between holes five and six at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with donor Steve Witkoff when gunshots went off. The golf game was a last-minute addition to Trump’s schedule, sources said.
  • Secret Service spots a rifle: A Secret Service agent spotted a rifle barrel sticking out of a fence and agents fired at a man in the bushes along the perimeter, according to Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw. Bradshaw said his office was alerted at 1:30 p.m. ET that the Secret Service had fired gunshots. The person was 300 to 500 yards away from Trump, an official said. The suspect then fled in a car.
  • Witness spots a man in the bushes: A witness saw the suspect run from the bushes and took a picture of his car that led to the suspect’s apprehension.
  • Highway chase: Police flooded Interstate 95 before stopping the suspect’s car and detaining him. The suspect was not armed when law enforcement officials took him out of the car, and he has not made any statements. The person in custody is Routh, according to three law enforcement sources.
  • Evidence found in bushes: Law enforcement officials found an AK-47-style rifle with a scope; two backpacks that had ceramic tiles in them to augment a bulletproof vest; and a GoPro where the suspect was positioned. “This whole set-up indicates a very high level of pre-planning,” former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe told CNN.
  • Mental health assessment: Investigators expect a federal court in South Florida will require “a mental health assessment” of Routh before any possible criminal proceedings, a law enforcement source told CNN.

CNN’s account tallies with the rest of my reading.

Routh’s Biography

We know more about Routh’s criminal record (below) and exploits in Ukraine (further below) than we know about the (at the point very disputed) rest of his life. From AP:

Records show Routh, 58, lived in North Carolina for most of his life before moving in 2018 to Kaaawa, Hawaii, where he and his son operated a company building sheds, according to an archived version of the webpage for the business.

(From memory, Routh’s business was on land owned by his girlfriend; from Hawaii he also ran at least one under-5K GoFundMe for Ukraine.) In Routh’s younger days:

That was a sharp departure from a younger Routh, profiled in the same newspaper in 1991 for his assistance in helping defend a woman against an alleged rapist. Routh, then 25, was wearing a coat and tie in a large photo accompanying the story. He was dubbed a “super citizen” and awarded a Law Enforcement Oscar by the Greensboro chapter of the International Union of Police Associations. The headline on the story: “Crimefighting pays.”

Subsequently, Routh accumulated quite a criminal record. From NBC:

Court records show more than 100 criminal counts have been filed against Ryan Routh in North Carolina, most in Guilford County, which underlies Greensboro. The exact outcome of each case was not immediately clear.

Records also show convictions for carrying a concealed weapon, possession of stolen property and hit-and-run. In those cases, which included misdemeanor convictions for violations such as resisting an officer and driving on a suspended license, the defendant received a suspended sentence and parole or probation. In 2002, court records show, he was convicted of possessing a weapon of mass destruction — a machine gun.

When I hear “WMD,” I think atomic or bio-weapons, not mere machine guns (more on that arrest here). So that comes as a bit of a relief.

Routh’s Writings

Once again, much of what follows is from social media, and hence of dubious provenance (and the new technique of providing a scrolling video of a social media account doesn’t do much for me either, unless it’s the quickest way to record the data before the platform pulls the account being recorded).

For the record! And your perusal….

Twitter:

Note that Routh’s impression numbers seem pretty large.

Facebook:

LinkedIn:

Google (Routh’s business):

Routh’s phone message:

Routh’s book, Unwinnable War (of which more later):

Routh’s Political Affiliations

All tribes, whether Blue, Red, or Ukro-Nazi are trying to say “He’s not one of us!”

Routh was a Democrat donor. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh] is a registered Democrat and donated 19 times between September 2019 and March 2020 to the Democratic political action committee ActBlue, Federal Election Commission filings revealed.

The donations totaled more than $140 and were earmarked for individual 2020 Democratic presidential primary candidates including Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

(The mail calls the number of times Routh donated “extraordinary.” 19 over three candidates? I don’t think so.)

AP writes:

Routh’s politics, meanwhile, don’t appear consistently aligned to one party or the other.

In June 2020, he offered a posted on X directed at then-President Trump to say he would win reelection if he issued an executive order for the Justice Department to prosecute police misconduct. That year, he also posted in support of the Democratic presidential campaign of then-U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who has since left the party and endorsed Trump.

But:

Ryan Routh’s political support evolved from Trump in 2016 to Gabbard in 2020, then Ramaswamy and Haley in 2024.

The key feature of Routh’s political life, recently, seems to have been support for Ukraine. Aggregator Ukrainska Pravda summarizes CNN:

[Routh] had expressed support for Ukraine on social media following Russia’s invasion. Quote from CNN: “Ryan Wesley Routh, who authorities suspect was planning to attack former President Donald Trump as he played a round of golf, expressed strong support for Ukraine in dozens of posts on X in 2022, saying he was willing to die in the fight and that ‘we need to burn the Kremlin to the ground’.” Details: Routh had encouraged foreigners, through Facebook, to join the war [on Ukraine’s side – ed.]. CNN added that Routh referred to himself as an “off-the-books liaison” of the Ukrainian government and encouraged soldiers from Afghanistan to fight for Ukraine.

Having summarized the state of play, let’s start pulling at the loose ends!

Questions and Loose Ends

(1) How did Routh get the gun?

I am nothing like an expert in America’s admittedly porous gun laws. It does seem to me, however, that a person like Routh, with multiple criminal counts and several convictions, one for possessing a machine gun (!) was a less than ideal canidate for membership in a well-regulated militia (though to be fair, that seems to be what he wanted to do in Ukraine, whether he did so or not). So how did Routh get the gun? Amazon? A gun-show? DId he find it under a toadstool?

(2) How did Routh know Trump would be on the course?

From AP:

Trump’s plans to golf Sunday were not part of any public schedule, on days he is not campaigning, he can often be found golfing at one of his courses. Trump International Golf Club, West Palm Beach, about a 10-minute drive from his Mar-a-Lago residence, is a favorite.

So how did Routh know to find Trump at that place and time? It makes no sense that he set himself up with the weaponry, the ceramics, and a GoPro, on the off-chance that Trump might appear in his sights.

(3) How did Routh plan the assassination from out of state?

Trump grew up in North Carolina, lived in Hawaii, and then (to guess at his itinerary, which we don’t know either) flew to Miami to assassinate Trump. Not cheap, and not something to do on a whim. From the Daily Mail:

[Politico’s Neil] Caputo says that what’s bedeviled both observers and authorities is how Routh – who moved from North Carolina to Hawaii in the 2010s – was able to plot this from out of state.

‘The question no one’s able to answer yet and hopefully will be answered: the alleged assassin appeared to have been from out of state. How did he drive down there? How did he case the joint? How did he know when the former president would be there and come within his potential line of sight?’

(3) How Ukro-Nazi adjacent was Routh?

Certainly Routh was Ukraine, but whether he was effective at anything other than getting our creduous Western press to quote him is unknown. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh] posted video of himself in Ukraine in 2022 as he worked to recruit foreign fighters.

Routh, who had no military experience, outlined his plan to recruit fighters by moving Afghan soldiers, in some cases illegally from Pakistan and Iran to Ukraine. At the time he said dozens had expressed interest.

Routh was so dedicated to Ukraine he cut grass at Independence Square in Kyiv using scissors.

‘The question as far as why I’m here — to me, a lot of the other conflicts are grey, but this conflict is definitely black and white,’ Routh explained.

‘This is about good versus evil. This is a storybook, you know, any movie we’ve ever watched, this is definitely evil against good.

‘My original goal was to come and fight. All of us, from the entire planet, should be motivated to support the Ukrainian army, but I’m 56 years old and have no military experience, so I’m not an ideal candidate to actually fight.

‘So plan B was to come to Kiev and promote the idea of ​​many others coming to join the International Legion. We need thousands of people here to fight alongside the Ukrainians.’

It is unclear how successful Routh’s recruitment drive might have been, but at least one former Afghan soldier told the Times he had been contacted by him and expressed an interested in fighting if it meant getting out of Iran.

(Routh was also quoted in Newsweek Romania and Semafor, besides the Times.) Routh may not have been effective because Ukraine volunteer efforts were an omnishambles (and too much of a snakepit for me to sort. Please correct any errors in what follows.) From the New York Times;

Now, after a year of combat, many of these homespun groups of volunteers are fighting with themselves and undermining the war effort. Some have wasted money or stolen valor. Others have cloaked themselves in charity while also trying to profit off the war, records show.

Routh did manage to get himself into an Azov video. See at 1:50:

(This video has been promoted by some as from Blackstone.)

And then there’s the International Legion. From the Grayzone:

Back in 2022, Routh reportedly traveled to Ukraine to recruit for the International Legion. According to Newsweek Romania, which interviewed Routh in 2022, the American resident of Hawaii hoped to fight as a volunteer alongside the Ukrainian army, but was too old at age 56.

“So plan B,” Routh said, “was to come to Kiev and promote the idea of many others coming to join the International Legion. We need thousands of people here to fight alongside Ukrainians.

The International Legion appears to have had an Azov component in the Maidan Era (2014), but the volunteers from 2022 onwards appear to be less vehement in their ideological convictions. FWIW, at least one International Legiion spokesperson, King Jack Strong (love the moniker), disowned Routh as of June 21 of this year:

Warning about Ryan Routh: he is not, and never has been, associated with the International Legion or the Ukrainian Armed Forces at all. He is not, & never has been, a legion recruiter. He is misrepresenting himself and lying to many people.

(Of course, Strong would disavow Routh, but in June? Then again, here is Routh being interviewed by the Times in 2023:

In the interview, Mr. Routh said he was in Washington to meet with the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, known as the Helsinki Commission “for two hours” to help push for more support for Ukraine. The commission is led by members of Congress and staffed by congressional aides. It is influential on matters of democracy and security and has been vocal in supporting Ukraine.

The Helsinki Commission had Paul Massaro as its staff director. Here is Massaro with an Azov flag:

(4) How spook adjacent was Routh?

Ed Snowden comments:

Routh should already have been on somebody’s list for the machine gun conviction. It’s very hard for me to believe that Routh could have run around Ukraine raising money, talking to the Times, Semafor, and Newsweek Romania, attempting to recruit foreign fighters, and ingratiating himself with various “volunteer” organizations, without getting on some sort of spook’s list (since Ukraine is, after all, crawling with spooks). So Snowden’s careful placing of the burden of proof — “zero contact” — is appropriate, and I don’t think our on our organs of state security will be able to meet it.

(I have seen two sighting shots for Routh’s handler, if any: One is for Soo Kim, late of the CIA, now of RAND, but the screenshot purporting to link them does not show Routh’s account); the second is for Malcolm Nance, which would make me happy, but the nexus seems to be that they were both quoted in the same New York Times story.)

(5) Why the continually loose and sloppy protection for one Presidential candidate?

From AP:

Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw noted at a briefing that because Trump is no longer in office, security protocols around the course had loosened.

“He’s not the sitting president. If he was, we would have had this entire golf course surrounded. But because he’s not, his security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible,” he told reporters.

Trump almost got whacked once, and we can’t offer the guy decent protection because of some bureaucratic imperative? Maybe the Biden Administration’s Secret Service should hustle their lame ducks along on this, before Trump gets shot at again (or RFK, heaven forfend). Congress wants answers, and so they should.

Is this Trump Assasination a Case of Stochastic Terrorism?

Here is the definition of stochastic terrorism. From Wikipedia (sorry):

In 2002, the term was first used by Gordon Woo to describe a process to quantify risk of a terrorist attack.

Credit for defining the term has also been given to the blogger, G2geek, on the Daily Kos platform in 2011, when defining it as “ to carry out violent or terrorist acts that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable”, with plausible deniability for those creating media messaging.

As of 2016, “stochastic terrorism” was an “obscure” academic term according to professor David S. Cohen. During an August 9, 2016 campaign rally, then-candidate Donald Trump remarked “If [Hillary Clinton] gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is. I don’t know.” These comments were widely condemned as instigating violence, and described by Cohen as “stochastic terrorism”, further popularizing the term. Trump has continued to be criticized as inspiring violence.

If that is the game Trump played, then two can play, apparently, and some more successfully than others:

“I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me. They talk about democracy. I’m a threat to democracy. They’re the threat to democracy,” Trump said, “with the fake Russia-Russia-Russia investigation that went nowhere.”

If hate can be said to instigate stochastic terrorism, then Routh has it for Trump. In his book, he writes:

In a section of the book focused on Iran, the author said he “must take part of the blame” for electing a “brainless” president, in an apparent reference to Trump. “ and the dismantling of the deal,” the book declares.

Routh’s son agrees with the hate, but not the stochastics. From the Daily Mail:

[Routh’s son, Oran Routh] said his father hates Trump as ‘every reasonable person does.

‘I don’t like Trump either,’ the son added [neither do I!]

But he said his dad is not a violent person and couldn’t believe his father would target the president.

But when “democracy is on the ballot,” perhaps extreme measures are justified:

And some may suggest the location where such measures are taken:

(Although it’s hard for me to believe that one could meet put Azovs on the side of democracy and also J6ers on the side of fascism, stranger things have happened.)

Conclusion

The questions I’ve raised — and others — need to be answered. From Unherd:

Without any serious attempt to answer these questions, there is a risk that public sentiment, already stirred in a cauldron of cynicism and mistrust online, will drift towards conspiracy theory. But even more dangerous are the implications of brushing aside assassination attempts on a former president. A precedent is being set where political violence against a candidate who is not merely disfavoured but who has been positioned by the media as an imminent threat to American democracy itself is met with a collective shrug. That might be the most alarming aspect of all.

Then again, it’s not clear that whoever’s running “our democracy” is in the mood to answer this question just now. From an anonymous source well known to us, immediately after this assassination attempt:

The superdelegate was out in his yard. I went right over and engaged him on the news. Long discussion – and he was being a bit cagey [but paraphrasing]. There are those who believe that Trump must never be allowed near the White House. They are very suspicious that he actually has some very telling and career-ending intel on multiple figures – and that may be what the Mar-a-Lago thing was all about. The unsaid but very heavily implied feeling was they will continue to resort to eliminating him in any way possible. The guy today was some kind of “Ukraine spook.”

Well, “some kind” covers a lot of ground (see above). But as we have often said: Given what the Democrats believe about Trump, they cannot possibly allow him to take office. So expect continued volatility.

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