Remember Shadowstats? Well, there’s always a John Williams. Here’s Tucker in EpochTimes (reprinted in ZeroHedge):
…U.S. inflation has been accelerating since September 2021. It is now running 3 percent in real time, or 50 percent above the target. This continued pain follows four years of the worst inflation in at least 40 years and probably much longer. By some measures, what we’ve been through equals or exceeds the pain of the 1970s. The only difference this time is that the bean counters in government have gotten better at hiding it.
Hard to figure out where to start. First, here’s a picture of inflation using CPI and PCE deflator.
Figure 1: Year-on-year CPI inflation (blue), PCE deflator inflation (red). Dashed vertical line at September 2021.Figures are November y/y inflation rates. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, and author’s calculations.
First, as of November’s numbers, inflation using either price index is 3%. Second, inflation did accelerate from September 2021 until mid 2022 — but it’s decelerated since then, substantially.
Third, the target is not 2% for CPI inflation — the target for CPI inflation consistent with 2% for PCE deflator inflation. By my reckoning, 2.4% is not 50% higher than target, but 20%.
Fourth, while the recent bout of inflation — which is past — might be the worst in 40 years, but I cannot determine by what “measures” it was worse.
Figure 2: Year-on-year CPI inflation (blue), PCE deflator inflation (red). Dashed vertical line at September 2021.Figures are November y/y inflation rates. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Fourth, the assertion that the government statisticians are “better at hiding it” is the phrase most redolent of the Shadowstats mindset. What does Mr. Tucker have in mind. Well, remember he’s the coauthor with Heritage’s EJ Antoni of the paper that asserted that properly measured, GDP has been declining since 2022 — without ever showing how he constructed his preferred deflator.
So, when next you read some commentator saying that the Biden administration handed a terrible economy to Trump, read carefully.
