Dow Jones futures open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, in the wake of an assassination attempt vs. former President Donald Trump.
Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML (ASML) and Goldman Sachs (GS) headline key earnings reports this coming week.
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Massive Character Change Means Traders Should Do This; AppFolio, Generac, Booking Holdings In Focus
Trump Rally Shooting
A gunman fired multiple shots at the stage as former President Trump was holding a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania on Saturday evening. Trump was slightly wounded on his right ear. Secret Service surrounded him and quickly got him off stage, after Trump, face streaked with blood, shook his fist in defiance.
Trump, on his Truth Social site, later said he was “shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear.”
Two people reportedly were killed, including the suspected shooter.
Authorities identified Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, from Pennsylvania as the shooter. They are trying to determine a motive.
The incident is being investigated as an assassination attempt.
Top Republicans and Democrats, including President Joe Biden, quickly denounced the attack as well as political violence generally. They praised the quick Secret Service response, wished for Trump’s recovery and urged calm. Biden spoke with Trump after the incident, the White House said Sunday night.
The Republican National Convention is this week, with Trump expected to name his running mate in the next few days.
Trump’s odds of retaking the White House have jumped to 66% on PredictIt from about 60% before Saturday’s rally shooting. It was about 53% before the first presidential debate.
The Wall Street Journal offers in-depth coverage of the Trump rally shooting and beyond.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
How will Dow futures and other markets respond to the Trump assassination attempt? How will various sectors such as solar fare.
Bitcoin rose modestly, back to $60,000 on Sunday. Trump has been pro-crypto in his election effort.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a big shake-up Thursday. But, ultimately, the major indexes hit record highs during the week, while the small-cap Russell 2000 skyrocketed to a multiyear high, fueled by Fed rate-cut hopes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average leapt 1.6% in last week’s stock market trading, moving above 40,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 index climbed 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.25%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 spiked 6% to its best level since January 2022.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 8.5 basis points to 4.19%, hitting a four-month low Thursday. U.S. crude oil futures declined 1.1% to $82.21 a barrel.
Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and most of megacaps and chip stocks that fell back Thursday ended with weekly gains or at least healthy charts. Meanwhile, key sectors such as housing saw big gains after lagging for some time.
Weatherford International (WFRD), TopBuild (BLD), AppFolio (APPF) and Tencent (TCEHY) are in buy areas.
Key Earnings
Netflix stock, Goldman Sachs and ASML also are in buy range as they head into earnings. Taiwan Semiconductor stock is still flirting with a $1 trillion valuation. Goldman reports early Monday amid the ongoing flurry of bank earnings. ASML (early Wednesday) and Taiwan Semi (early Thursday) will be huge for the chip sector and artificial intelligence broadly. Netflix is due Thursday night.
The video embedded in the article discusses the big week of upcoming earnings, with Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, Netflix and Goldman stock all analyzed.
Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live
Nasdaq Still Extended
On Wednesday, the Nasdaq closed 9% above its 50-day line, the most stretched since June 2023, raising the risk of a pullback. After Thursday’s tumble and Friday’s modest bounce, the Nasdaq is 6.9% above its 50-day, still extended.
With optimism high and the Nasdaq stretched, the risks of a pullback are elevated as tech earnings kick in. That could be a toxic mix.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) climbed 0.5% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 1.9%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) advanced 1.7%. Nvidia and Taiwan Semi stock are the two largest holdings in SMH, with ASML a notable member.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rallied 1.8% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) soared 9%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 position across Ark Invest’s ETFs.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) bounced 3.8% last week. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) leapt 4.5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) spiked 10.8%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) edged up 0.5% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gained 2.6%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) popped 2.4%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 2%, with Goldman Sachs stock a big component. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) surged 8.6%.
Time The Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock tumbled 8.4% on Thursday, reversing from a nine-month high and snapping a big 11-day win streak. But TSLA stock only fell 1.3% to 248.23 for the week. The EV giant reportedly will delay the Tesla robotaxi event from Aug. 8 to sometime in October.
CEO Elon Musk endorsed Donald Trump for president following the assassination attempt.
Nvidia Stock
Nvidia stock rose 2.7% to 129.28 for the week despite tumbling 5.6% on Thursday. Stepping back, NVDA stock has been consolidating for a few weeks, generally finding support around or above the 21-day line. A few more weeks could see a new base, with the 50-day line catching up.
Stocks In Buy Zones
Weatherford stock jumped 4.9% to 127.72, rebounding from the 50-day line and breaking out from a cup-with-handle base with a 127.20 buy point. Shares hit a record 130.61 intraday Friday before pulling back.
TopBuild stock spiked 14.6% last week to 431.91. The insulation installer vaulted above the 50-day line on Thursday, clearing a downward-sloping trendline. The official buy point is 452.87, according to MarketSurge.
AppFolio stock jumped 5% on Friday to 264.35, clearing a 256.73 buy point from a flat base. APPF advanced 4.7% for the week, the sixth straight weekly gain.
Tencent stock popped 3.8% to 50.47. The Chinese messaging and gaming giant topped a 50.89 buy point intraday on Friday after clearing an early entry Thursday. TCEHY stock has a cup-with-handle base.
AI Is Fueling A ‘Nuclear Renaissance.’ Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos Are In The Mix.
Market Rally Analysis
The Nasdaq is extended while earnings season is a big X factor over the next few weeks. Taiwan Semi and ASML in particular could swing techs in the coming week. But for now it’s a broad advance with a number of stocks flashing buy signals.
Keep in mind that not all stocks will take part. Restaurant stocks have suffered serious damage in the past week. Social media plays had a tough few days. Be willing to cut losers and laggards as new buying opportunities arise.
The possible assassination attempt vs. Trump further underlines that the 2024 election season is a major wildcard.
One downside to a broad market rally? Your watchlists need to be a lot bigger. So do your homework.
Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor stock are on IBD Leaderboard. KB Home stock is on SwingTrader. Nvidia and Goldman stock are on the IBD 50. Nvidia stock is on IBD Big Cap 20. AppFolio was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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