From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean growth iterated on Q2 advance (teal), and GDPNow for Q3 growth iterated on Q2 advance (light blue square), all in bn Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Atlanta Fed (8/6), and author’s calculations.
Recall, roughly a third of the components of the advance release GDP are estimated, hence the adjective “advance” (or in other countries, “flash”).
For comparison, yesterday’s Goldman Sachs tracking estimate is at 2.6%.
