2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.
Figure 1: GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters November median (brown), FT-Booth median forecast of December (light green triangle). FT-Booth levels calculated cumulating q4/q4 growth off of GDPNow for Q4. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, FT-Booth survey, and author’s calculations.
The modal response is for continued, albeit slowing, growth.
Apparently, I’m one of the few forecasters that believe that Trump will go through with tariffs as stated, and mass deportation (at least some). Working from the McKibben-Hogan-Noland estimates for tariffs as stated, I shave 0.5 ppts off of 2025 growth of 2% (November 2024 SPF median), to get 1.5%. Alternatively, one could use the Goldman-Sachs Republican sweep scenario, to shave off 0.55 ppts.
Figure 2 GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18 (light blue square), FT-Booth median forecast of December (light green triangle). FT-Booth levels calculated cumulating q4/q4 growth off of GDPNow for Q4, 10% trimmed high/low (light green +), Chinn’s forecast (inverted red triangle). Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, FT-Booth survey, and author’s calculations.
My interpretation is that most of the respondents don’t believe that Mr. Trump will go through with the tariffs he proposed before the election (let alone the elevated tariffs on Canada and Mexico).
Some interesting views on what the respondents think the tariffs will do. On the pass through to CPI:
My response was the modal response.
Source: FT-Booth US Macroeconomists survey (December).
On the impact on growth:
Source: FT-Booth US Macroeconomists survey (December).
On this question, my response of large negative impact was an outlier (although a majority of respondents — 61% — thought the impact would be negative, compared to 20% that thought it would be positive).
Note that the McKibbin-Hogan-Noland estimates place the bulk of the negative impact of tariffs on GDP growth in 2026.
