From CBO report released yesterday.
The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge:
Figure 1: Baseline Federal budget balance to GDP ratio (blue) and counterfactual without immigration surge (tan), both by fiscal year. 2023 observation is actual. Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook update (June), and CBO (July 2024), and author’s calculations.
Nominal GDP would’ve been smaller as well.
Source: CBO (2024).
In 2023, the boost represented about 1.5% of counterfactual nominal GDP.
