…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures. Figure 1: EPU (green, right scale), 7 day centered moving average Economic Policy Uncertainty (brown, right scale), Trade Policy Uncertainty (green, left scale), 7 day centered moving average...
Change in NFP below consensus, but previous months upwardly revised. Big benchmark revision (-610 thousand), but even larger — 2 million upward — revision to December 2024 civilian employment. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold...
By Lambert Strether. Readers, my head cold seems to be on the downslope, oh joy. Anyohw, I started on-time today, then thought I ould have my feeds one last look… –lambert Bird Song of the Day Brown Thrasher, Bindloss Campground,...
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2024 employment figures (but 2023 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears. Figure 1: Civilian employment, December 2024 release...
The Financial Times, in a new story, tells us that Trump is reviving a tax reform element he pursued unsuccessfully in 2017, that of closing the so-called carried interest loophole. It enables private equity kingpins to convert what ought to...
It’s amusing to see a US influence operator, RFL/RL, trying to preserve an image of accuracy while carrying official water. Here, the case in point is Trump’s promotion of the idea that the US could continue to arm Ukraine if...
Big things are happening in US-Venezuela relations. But can they last? At the beginning of this week, when most people’s attention was, quite understandably, fixated on Trump’s tariff tantrums, Trump announced that Venezuela’s Maduro government had agreed to receive Venezuelans...
About Lambert Strether Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the...
From CRFB, $5-$11.2 trn over 10 years: Baseline debt-to-GDP by 2035 is 113%; low estimate 132%, high estimate 149%. Source link...
Yves here. Many of you are Jamie Galbraith fans, and INET has just published a wide-ranging interview with him. Aside from discussing Galbraith’s latest book, which focuses on how flawed mainstream models ignore real resources and lead to distortions and...
