DWD released employment numbers for September today. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI (light blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green),...
Video today. 55% of Americans believe they are in a recession. Why? Because they have been in one. Most indicators suggest otherwise. Here are some of Hovde’s predictions from December 2023: Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a...
This is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can yield that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% below 2019Q1 levels. Based on their discussion...
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and St. Onge (2024). As noted in this post, I cannot — despite my best efforts — replicate their...
Bird Song of the Day Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Laguna del Bosque, Guatemala. “Full singing bout, 12 minutes long! First phrase not too clear, good quality after that. Bird was perched at midlevel in brush under tall cypress trees, close to footpath.”...
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here’s the resulting two pictures, first one for those...
Ancient Hawk-Sized Birds With Raptor-Like Feet Discovered in Montana SciTech Daily The Forgotten War that Made America The American Conservative Explosive pollen wars: Plants fight for pollen-space on pollinators Phys.org Climate/Environment Tax on Europe’s frequent flyers could raise €64bn a...
Yesterday we looked at the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan, Iran’s interests in the South Caucasus, and how the standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan is being used to apply more pressure on Iran and has all the signs of a...
Yves here. Satyajit Das reviews three books that claim to offer new insights into the Russia now by looking at Russia past. But all of the works, as Das points out, are colored by Anglo-American predispositions. By Satyajit Das, a...
By Paul Holden, an investigative journalist who is currently the Director of investigations at Shadow World Investigations. The Fraud, his book on Sir Keir Starmer is due for publication by Or Books in early 2025. Originally published at openDemocracy. The...
