By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published...
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), nowcast based on error correction model using ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series (blue), +/- 1 standard error lines (gray), Bloomberg consensus as of...
Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang you,@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been greatly underestimated – read the article by...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Common Nightingale, Les Demoiselles Coiffées de Bédoin, Vaucluse, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, France. Duet! * * * In Case You Might Miss… Trump garbage truck stunt. Section Three has risen from the...
With PCE deflators released today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (dark red), PCE deflator (bold black), PCE market based deflator (scarlet), and HICP (green), per Eeckhout (2023). tan salmon horizontal line at 2% target...
A quick recap before moving to the current situation in Georgia. There were five main parties competing in the October 26 parliamentary elections. Georgia Dream, a neoliberal party bankrolled by one of the country’s richest individuals and one that isn’t...
About Lambert Strether Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the...
The Bolshevik revolution of 1917 shook the elites of Europe. They likely hadn’t been that uneasy since the guillotines were getting worn out in France in 1794. In the 2021 book “The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins...
Conor here: A quote comes to mind. “How many more of these stinking, double-downer sideshows will we have to go through before we can get ourselves straight enough to put together some kind of national election that will give me...
By Richard Heinberg, a senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute and the author of Power: Limits and Prospects for Human Survival. This article was produced by the Earth Food Life Project and the Post Carbon Institute. The transition from...
