Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function. Figure 1: TIPS constant maturity 5 year yield (blue), five year breakeven (Treasury minus TIPS) (red), both in %. Red dashed line at election. Source: Treasury via...
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor rule reaction function, when the currency is safe have asset? From Bloomberg: “We see a good chance of substantial dollar...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Northern Mockingbird, Granville Schools Land Lab, Licking, Ohio, United States. “Song.” * * * In Case You Might Miss… Deploy the Blame Cannons! Boeing avoids liability for Ethiopian MCAS crash...
Yves here. This article intriguingly suggests that Ukraine might be well served to be far more selective about rebuilding than its government and backers see as desirable. Mind you, this piece skips over another big reason why this necessity (failure...
Yves here. Anyone cozying up to Iran is an admission against interest for a US messaging outlet like RFE/RL and so should be taken seriously. The uptick in visible moves to improve Saudi-Iran ties looks to be yet another Trump-proofing...
“You have to take into account that you may not be able to pay by debit card for a longer period of time,” notes the Dutch National Bank. “Then you have to have cash under the mattress, or be able...
Convulsing cat in Thai TV show sparks abuse concerns BBC :-( Masters of Horror and Magic American Scholar (Anthony L) Punctuation is dead because the iPhone keyboard killed it Android Authority Order Title: Amending Over-the-Counter Monograph M012: Cold, Cough, Allergy,...
Yves here. This is a useful overview of the Trump tariffs and tax scheme. Note that this post forecasts, as just about any economically literate look does, that new tariffs will lower growth in comparison to current conditions. This article...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. “War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.” —Letter of William T. Sherman to James M. Calhoun, E.E. Rawson, and S.C. Wells, September 12, 1864 On Veterans Day, I usually run an etching from Goya’s...
Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER, and author’s calculations. Not only did net exports...
