Yves here. We are sure to see more articles along these lines, with more refined analyses, as the details of Trump energy sanctions emerge. This piece is still helpful as an early quick take. Some minor issues: we recently published...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. I’ve been design-adjacent for a good part of my working life. So I when I spotted CAPS LOCK in the bookstore (subtitled “HOW CAPITALISM TOOK HOLD OF GRAPHIC DESIGN, AND HOW TO ESCAPE FROM IT”),...
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark for NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI...
By Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, a PhD student in Economics at the University of Copenhagen, Niels Johannesen, Professor of Economics and Business, Professor of Economics at University Of Copenhagen, Claus Kreiner, Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Economic Behavior...
The Bear Necessities of Larceny: Californians Arrested for Fraudulently Staging Bear Rampage Jonathan Turley Immaculately Preserved Saber-Tooth Cat Cub Found in Siberian Permafrost Gizmodo Three days with the true believers who won’t let Bigfoot die FT Climate Oil sector lobbyists...
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in regressions augmented with short rate, from 1946-2023Q3 (GDP growth 1947-2024Q3). Figure 1: Regression coefficient of GDP growth lead 4 quarters...
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to be predictable on the basis of term spreads; but recessions are a binary variable insofar as...
Hear a Chopin Waltz Unearthed After Nearly 200 Years New York Times (IM Doc). To hear it, you must go here. Historians Got It Wrong: New DNA Evidence From Pompeii Challenges Long-Held Beliefs About Ancient Rome SciTech Daily (Chuck L)...
Yves here. Given Trump’s advanced age, and the eventual confirmation of suspected Biden decrepitude, the media and Trump opponents have jumped on what they depict as signs of Trump cognitive decline. One area they have harped on are his very...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Northern Mockingbird, Edith G. Read Wildlife Sanctuary, Westchester, New York, United States. “Amazing repertoire of other species’ songs woven into this song.” * * * In Case You Might Miss…...
