Yves here. This post describes yet another way the US squandered its unipolar moment. Rather than try to build a more stable world order, the US instead tried to secure its dominance and continued to undermine the rise of regional...
The day after the Wall Street Journal ran Why This Frothy Market Has Me Scared, it published More Men Are Addicted to the ‘Crack Cocaine’ of the Stock Market. We encourage you to read both in full if possible (the...
Twenty years ago, the largest US embassy in the world was in occupied Iraq. Today, it is in Mexico. And the first person to take charge of the new facilities will be a former CIA agent and Green Beret. The...
Yves here. Angry Bear called our attention to this Trump tax cuts post, and also helpfully added some charts from its linked sources, which we are also including. Even though the press has repeatedly pointed out that the Trump tax...
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18 (light blue square), Survey of Professional Forecasters November median (brown), FT-Booth median forecast of December (light...
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today: Source: Kalshi, accessed 7pm CT 19 December 2024. Source link...
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Bird Song of the Day Northern Mockingbird, Quitman Farm, Brooks, Georgia, United States. * * * In Case You Might Miss… Continuing resolution founders, DOGE extra-constiutional, Trump opposes debt ceiling Mangione extradited to New York,...
Oddly, even Russia-sympathetic commentators seem loath to take Putin and other top Russia officials at their word with respect to Ukraine. Russia’s demand for no NATO, no way, no how, ever in Ukraine means a very fast impasse for any...
