Yves here. The fact that Biden only now has announced a headline-garnering proposal, certain not to be passed this term, targeting the young and lower-income workers, is yet another proof of his Administration’s cynicism and desperation. Yours truly is far...
From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday: In his China slide deck, Slok presents a number of graphs depicting the headwinds being exerted by the collapse in the real estate market. One interesting graph — supportive of...
Yves here. When McKinsey is as wrong as it is in predicting labor scarcity as a new normal (as the post shows, it isn’t even a current condition), one has to wonder why. On the one hand, there actually could...
London’s newfound ambitions in the South Atlantic Sea are unlikely to meet any resistance from the Milei government. The Malvinas, or Falkland Islands, dispute is back in the headlines in Argentina, albeit not on the front pages. The cause this...
Chaos continues with Ohio teachers’ pension fund as second advisor quits Cleveland.com (JH). Timing ‘Trump Trades’ With an Eye on GOP Platform John Authers, Bloomberg Phases In The Life-cycle Of An Equity Order codonomics Climate Climate crisis is making days...
Yves here. Since even news outlets overseas have been overweight on Biden and now Trump coverage, it seems more important than ever not to neglect other major stories. But I have to confess to finding this one on Gaza, Starmer,...
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through June 2024, and assuming no recession has arrived as of July 2024. Figure 1: Probit estimated recession probabilities...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Common Nightingale, Taliouline, Morocco. 28 minutes of nightingale, so grab a cup of coffee. * * * * * * Politics “So many of the social reactions that strike us...
China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg). Here’re q/q (not annualized) rates: Source: NBS via TradingEconomics.com. From Bloomberg: Gross domestic product expanded 4.7% in the second quarter from the same period...
Those who pay a wee bit of attention to Israel’s conduct over many years may have noticed its tendency to use major news events in the US as cover for Doing Things that might otherwise generate well-warranted press criticism or...
