Yves here. Satyajit Das continues his series on Israel and the Middle East by focusing on October 7 and its aftermath. By Satyajit Das, a former banker and author of numerous works on derivatives and several general titles: Traders, Guns...
Yves here. Project 2025 is a dog’s breakfast. Per Lambert, it reads as if it was put together by a committee, with different factions getting pet ideas in and then no one bothering to knock heads to make sure it...
From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey: “There is no question that the mix of higher costs and higher interest rates are making employers rethink investment and hiring plans,” added Bauer. “While we may not enter into a typically...
From a February 1st post: I use a regression of DSR growth rate on changes in AAA and 3 month Treasury yields, and 2 lags of DSR growth to forecast 2023Q3 DSR. I then obtain the following estimate of recession...
From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean growth iterated on Q2 advance (teal), and GDPNow for Q3 growth iterated on Q2 advance (light blue square), all in bn Ch.2017$. Source:...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day Readers have been so happy with the mockingbirds I’m going to keep doing them. Now entering Day Two of Week Three! Long-tailed Mockingbird, Quebrada El Limón (Valqui E4.2), Piura, Peru....
NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption...
Yves here. While we are all waiting for the next shoe to drop in the Middle East escalation drama, it seemed useful to look at some important real economy issues. A biggie is the prospects for AI, and specifically, OpenAI....
Yves here. Given that it was Japanese officials reacting perhaps ineptly to the prospect of a Fed rate cut in September that kicked off the short-lived market swoon, it’s not clear that Fed easing will deliver the happy outcomes that...
Argentina’s cash-strapped central bank has around two million troy ounces of gold in its vaults, valued at around $4.5 billion. Or at least it did. Where is Argentina’s gold? This is a question that began doing the rounds, particularly in...
