Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters). Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (sky blue squares),...
Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44). Some of the numbers I was thinking about: NBER indicators normalized to 2024M03: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red),...
Like test kits flying off the shelves, ambulance sirens are another proxy for positivity:I wonder if there’s an equivalent of ShotSpotter, but for ambulances. I’d love to see a map of the results…. Celebrity Watch “Olympics silver medalist Malaika Mihambo...
Lamebert here: Whaddaya know. By Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Professor of Economics (on leave) at Queen Mary University Of London, Rosario Crinò, Professor of Economics at University Of Bergamo, Gino Gancia, Fellow, International Trade and Regional Economics, and Ioannis Papadakis, Research Fellow...
Yves here. We’ve posted from time to time on alarmed media stories about how birthrates are declining around the world and at a faster rate than expected, particularly in advanced economies. The subtext is we need growth in population to...
The Financial Times has done some useful reporting in its new lead story, Forty per cent of Biden’s major IRA manufacturing projects delayed or paused. However, it’s hard to know what the “so what” of this analysis is without having...
Horses can plan and strategise, new study shows BBC Taylor Swift Cancellations Deal Blow to Insurers: Sources Insurance Journal Climate The uninsurable world: rethinking how to cover for climate damage FT How the most powerful environmental groups help greenwash Big...
The Department of Justice just scored a landmark victory against Google over its monopoly behavior. It’s a feather in the cap of the DOJ antitrust division and Lina Khan’s Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which have had an pretty incredible four-year...
For those of you, like me, who have grievous little understanding of Myanmar, this presentation provides a history, particularly of British misrule and the major ethnic groups, discusses the interests and actions of the major powers, and reviews the recent...
Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper: To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm...
