Marko Jukic, in a Twitter threat flagged by reader dk, advances a theory that is neat, plausible, and wrong. He correctly points out how the installation of CEOs coming out of finance at storied companies like Boeing, Intel, and Sony,...
Yves here. For those of you who follow KFF Health News, their “Bill of the Month” often features a howler of an abuse where the provider, typically a hospital, has not backed down on its dodgy charges. The KFF Health...
What Jay Powell should say at Jackson Hole FT TD Bank Sets Aside $2.6 Billion for Possible U.S. Anti-Money Laundering Penalties WSJ Revisiting How Many People Have Filed Bankruptcy Credit Slips Climate How to Force Capitalism to Stop Climate Change...
Yves here. This article gives a sobering picture of how disconnected Democratic party insiders are from the dangerous conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and their poor grasp of the America’s deteriorating stature and military reach. There is one...
Yves here. While this article on the acquisition of human language, I am not sure about the proposition that only humans have syntax, as in can assemble communication units in a way that conveys more complex meanings. Consider the crow,...
The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series. In contrast, the preliminary benchmark indicates 819 thousand less in March 2024 than the current official series....
Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector. Figure 1: Manufacturing production (blue, left scale), implied employment from preliminary benchmark (tan, left scale), aggregate hours (green, left scale),...
By Lambert Strether of Corrente Bird Song of the Day California Thrasher, Mori Pt., San Mateo, California, United States. Short and sweet! * * * In Case You Might Miss… Democrat National Convention vignettes . Boeing 777X and 787 debacles....
818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP. Figure 1: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark (red), from Philadelphia early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate of preliminary revision (light blue). Early benchmark calculated using...
I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one. What do predictive models say? Miller (2019) showed the maximum AUROC probit model for predicting recessions...
