We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow (blue square), NY Fed (red triangle), St. Louis Fed...
There are now several statistical models and prediction markets generating forecasts for the upcoming presidential election, and they point to a very close race. Harris has the edge in the FiveThirtyEight forecast and on PredictIt, but is behind in the Silver Bulletin forecast and on Polymarket....
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Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially government), was only up +12K. Here’s the picture I get looking at current vintage/latest release: Figure...
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading: Once you factor in the millions of people missing from the labor market (don’t have jobs but are excluded from official unemployment calculation),...
Despite its modest size, NC has twice stood up to the bullying tactics of the Censorship Industrial Complex (2016, the Washington Post; 2024, Google). Please help us to continue our track record of success by giving generously at the Tip...
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Bloomberg: Moraal is among the growing number of Dutch people struggling to find a rental property after a new law designed to make homes more affordable ended up aggravating a housing shortage. Aiming to protect low-income tenants, the government in...
This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 261 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via...
