ECONOMY

Suppose it’s the end of August, and one want to get the best estimate of Wisconsin real GDP for Q2. As of August, only Q1 Wisconsin GDP is available. What’s the best guess of of Q2 GDP, keeping in mind...

Having not used its considerable leverage to bring Israel’s gleeful slaughter of Arabs to heel,1 the Biden Administration late in the game is trying to Do Something as Israel escalates and Hezbollah ratchets up its responses by what it deems...

Cave Fish Adolescence Means Sprouting Taste Buds in Weird Places Scientific American Climate …HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST… …PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION…...

Yves here. It seems puzzling that the CBO has found that at proposed GOP plan to reduce Social Security benefits by increasing the “full retirement age” from 67 to 69 would succeed in lowering payments, particularly to those who wanted/needed...

Yves here. The challenge of preserving good data existed before AI but AI looks set to make the problem worse. There are several layers to this conundrum. One is the pre versus post Internet divide, in that pre-Internet print sources...

Yves here. The remarks by the highly respected Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar should put paid to the idea that a BRICS currency is coming soon, if ever. Jaishankar raises a series of particular issues consistent with a point we...

CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity. Figure 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3 month changes (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Chicago Fed via...

In the past few years, a persistently low level of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, Conference Board, or Gallup surveys, relative to conventional economic measures has puzzled analysts, including this one . This puzzle is illustrated...

Bird Song of the Day Sage Thrasher, Sierra Valley–Marble Hot Springs Rd., Plumas, California, United States. “Song including mimicry. Bird singing from a fencepost at roadside.” Eight minutes so grab a cup of coffee * * * In Case You...

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the...