Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q3 3rd release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12/2/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
It’s difficult to see the recession that some observers argued started in July 2024, or even April 2024 — but the data are preliminary, so revisions could alter our views.
The PCE deflator and core PCE deflator were both 0.1 ppts m/m below Bloomberg consensus.
With third release GDP figures released yesterday, we have the following picture of alternative measures of output.
Figure 2: GDP 3rd release (bold black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), and GDPNow of 12/20 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ level is growth rates cumulated on 2019Q4 GDP. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
