Continued growth:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (bold red), July WSJ (teal), GDPNow of 8/8 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The NY Fed nowcast for Q3 is slightly lower (2.24% vs. 2.9%).
The survey indicates 16% and 21% mean probabilities of a negative quarter in 2024Q3 and 2024Q4 respectively. For the 1967-2024 to date period, the proportion quarters experiencing negative growth is about 14%.
As noted here, only two people in the WSJ July survey indicated two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
