Big, sudden changes in election probabilities are unusual in American politics, though it seems we just had one. Here are some results, as reported in the FT:
US closed higher in the first session of the second half of the year, even as Treasury yields hit multi-week highs.
Strong gains in the technology sector helped the benchmark S&P 500 add 0.3 per cent despite almost three quarters of the index’s constituents declining on the day. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8 per cent, with every Magnificent Seven tech group finishing higher.
Treasuries sold off as traders weighed higher odds of Donald Trump being elected as US president later this year. The yield on the 10-year bond jumped 0.14 percentage points to 4.48 per cent, its highest level in a month.
“There are several investment implications of Trump back in the White House,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. “[Most notable would be] a higher-for-longer Fed, as monetary policymakers increase the likelihood that the corporate tax cuts will be extended next year.”
The immediate S&P 500 reaction was modestly positive too, about half a percentage point up.
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