Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). The News Index observation for September is through 9/8/2024. Michigan sentiment for September is preliminary. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (sky blue squares), Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. Michigan inflation expectations for September is preliminary.Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
