By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
I looked for another species of songbird that mimics, and came up with the Thrasher.
Brown Thrasher, Langford Creek Road, Tompkins, New York, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than one hundred days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
More Blue on the map. Trump still leads nationally, but some swing states moving toward Kamala. In particular, I’m no insider, but if I were on Team Trump, Georgia’s drop from +3.6 to this week’s +0.6 might cause me to chew my hands. Georgia? Really? Atlanta burbs no longer sitting it out? Can any readers from Georgia clarify?
“The Fight To Redefine the 2024 Race for President” [Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report]. “A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 48% to 47% in those states in the head-to-head. Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.” Handy chart:
I’m sure directionally Cook Political Report is correct. But that 4-8% swing in Pennsylvania? I’m dubious (because I’ve seen no anecdotes to support it, though readers may supply some).
* * * “Harris campaign’s Google ads rewrite news headlines” [Axios]. “The Harris campaign has been editing news headlines and descriptions within Google search ads that make it appear as if the Guardian, Reuters, CBS News and other major publishers are on her side, Axios has found. It’s a common practice in the commercial advertising world that doesn’t violate Google’s policies, but the ads mimic real news results from Search closely enough that they have news outlets caught off guard…. The mainstream media industry is already fighting assertions of bias. These ads, even though they comply with Google’s rules, could leave media outlets further vulnerable to charges of partisanship.” • It’s unclear to me whether Axios broke the story, but here are some examples:
We researched and found many examples of the Harris campaign using this misleading tactic of rewriting headlines in Google search results to falsely imply support for her campaign.
We found no evidence of the Trump or Kennedy teams using similar tactics. pic.twitter.com/8VSqKd7aMG
— AllSides (@AllSidesNow) August 14, 2024
Back to Axios:
I was shocked yesterday when I saw Axios publish an investigation reflecting negatively on Kamala’s campaign.
But soon as the reporter, @sarafischer, was attacked for doing it, she immediately denigrated her own scoop, saying it was no big deal and Kamala did nothing wrong. pic.twitter.com/DQS03k2rpJ
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 14, 2024
Colletive self-censorship by the PMC, exactly as with Biden’s cognitive decline.
Derek Guy is one of my guilty pleasures:
Kennedy (I): “New York State Trial Court Removes Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., From the Ballot” [Balllot Access News]. The decision. “On August 12, a New York state trial court judge in Albany removed Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., from the ballot, on the grounds that his address on his declaration of candidacy was not accurate. Cartwright v Kennedy, 906349-24, Albany Co. Supreme Court…. The judge had refused to let Kennedy make arguments about the constitutionality of the law. He will appeal. The decision does not mention Trump v Anderson, the U.S. Supreme Court decision that said Article Two implicitly bars letting states reject presidential candidates from the ballot, thus creating a “patchwork.” Nor does the decision deal with the point that the true candidates in a presidential election in November are the candidates for presidential elector. This is only the second time in U.S. history that a presidential candidate has been removed from a general election ballot on the basis that a residence address on an election document is not accurate.” By contrast, OR and WV just approved Kennedy’s signatures. “ Democracy”!
Kennedy (I): “WA Democratic Party pushing to keep Robert Kennedy Jr. off the ballot” [Washington State Standard]. “The state Democratic Party wants presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. kept off ballots in Washington this November. It contends the 4,181 signatures submitted by We the People in support of Kennedy’s nomination were not collected at a party convention as required by state law, making him ineligible to be one of voters’ choices. Kennedy’s campaign website listed various events and locations, like the Olympia Farmers Market, where registered voters could sign nomination petitions but that doesn’t comport with the law’s requirement, Democratic Party lawyers argued in an Aug. 9 letter to Secretary of State Steve Hobbs…. ‘Simply gathering signatures does not constitute a convention,’ they wrote.” • Ballot Access News comments: “The procedure that Kennedy used has been normal in Washington state for over 30 years. Although the state law talks about attendees at a nominating convention, that has long been interpreted to mean an outdoor meeting, with passersby signing, is permitted.”
<– Spook Country
–>
Realignment and Legitimacy
“‘Neoliberal capitalism’ has contributed to the rise of fascism, says Nobel laureate” [ABC Australia]. About Joseph Stiglitz’s new book, “The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society.” More: “He spends a lot of time talking about the economic freedoms that are required for the majority of people to flourish. He talks about the importance of someone’s ‘‘ — the set of options available to someone during their life, given the resources at their disposal — and how it determines their freedom to act, and what can be gained by good economic and social systems that provide someone with the freedom to live up to their potential. ‘People who are barely surviving have extremely limited freedom,’ he writes. ‘All their time and energy go into earning enough money to pay for groceries, shelter, and transportation to jobs … a good society would do something about the deprivations, or reductions in freedom, for people with low incomes. It is not surprising that people who live in the poorest countries emphasise economic rights, the right to medical care, housing, education, and freedom from hunger. They are concerned about the loss of freedom not just from an oppressive government but also from economic, social, and political systems that have left large portions of the population destitute.” “‘When you understand economic freedom as freedom to act, it immediately reframes many of the central issues surrounding economic policy and freedom,’ he says.”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: Covid
“COVID transmission on the rise as students head back to class” [ABC30]. “‘Right now, we are seeing high levels of COVID circulating in our community, so we want parents to take precautions for their children as they start the school year,’ said Dr. Trinidad Solis, Fresno County’s Deputy Public Health Officer. Dr. Solis says those precautions include getting the flu and COVID vaccines when they come out this fall and also practicing good hygiene. ‘It’s important to teach our kids to wash their hands regularly and practice good respiratory hygiene, that if they’re coughing or sneezing, they can do so in their sleeve instead of their hands,’ said Dr. Solis.” • [pounds head on desk]. After four years. What a catastrophic failure of public health (if failure it be). Could be a bumpy ride, given that levels are already high…
“As students head back to class, are schools ready to handle COVID-19?” [ABC7]. “[Kim Baumann, the lead nurse in Gwinnett County] said one of the ways officials are preparing for the new school year is to send reminders through schools’ newsletters, websites and other media about best practices to stay safe, including ‘Good hand washing, (and) using respiratory hygiene, as far as covering your coughs and sneezes.’ Baumann also said there is a team of custodians who make sure schools, particularly in high-touch areas, are cleaned and sanitized throughout the day, especially during peak season of respiratory viruses.” • [sigh]. Not a word on ventilation:
One would think the “school closures were the end of Western Civilization”-crowd would be pushing for ventilation and masking with equal vehemence, but n-o-o-o-o-o….
“Mid-South elementary school shuts down due to COVID cases” [FOX13] “HUMBOLDT, Tenn. – Just days into the new school year, one Mid-South elementary school has already had to shut down due to an uptick in COVID cases. Students at Stigall Primary School in Humboldt, Tenn., about 90 miles northeast of Memphis, started school on August 1. Parents told FOX13 that they got a letter on Monday night from the district telling them that students needed to stay home Tuesday as the district works to sanitize the building. ‘ Jessica Williamson, a parent of a first grader at Stigall Primary, said. ‘I just feel like it didn’t really go anywhere.’” You feel that way because it is that way. More: “It’s the second full week of school for Stigall Primary School students, but instead of math class and recess, Williamson’s daughter and her classmates are at home. ‘Those are little kids. They’re the most prone to put things in their mouths, to touch each other, to just share germs,’ Willamson said.” Fomite transmission is not a thing. More: “Yesterday, after all the students left the school, there was a deep clean done, disinfecting every surface,’ Ginger Carver, the communications director for the school district, said. ‘This way, the school is dormant today with no one in it.’” • Fomites are not a thing, so deep cleaning is useless. Four years in, and we don’t understand transmission. We haven’t even made the effort to understand transmission, even to protect our children…. What a mess.
Sequelae: Covid
“Long COVID is a $1 trillion problem with no cure. Experts plead for governments to wake up” [Fortune]. “‘I think they (government agencies) are itching to pretend that COVID is over and that long COVID does not exist,’ says Ziyad Al-Aly, director of the Clinical Epidemiology Center at Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System and lead author of the review. ‘It is much more pleasant to pretend as if emergency department visits and hospitalizations haven’t been rising sharply this summer.’… In a Nature Medicine review this week, Al-Aly and several other top researchers lay out a difficult truth: Long COVID has already affected an estimated 400 million people worldwide, a number the authors say is likely conservative, at an economic cost of about $1 trillion annually—equivalent to 1% of the global economy. Moreover, the risk of a person being hit with long COVID rises with repeated infections of the virus itself, and recent COVID activity has experts watching closely. As review co-author Eric Topol noted in a recent blog post, the current COVID incursion is ramping up quickly, with one modeler estimating 900,000 new infections per day in the U.S. alone.” • A million per day? That’s a lot. And “incursion” is a new word. I rather like it. At least it implies an enemy to be fought; one doesn’t “live with” incursions.
Elite Maleficence
CDC’s bogus wastewater map:
CDC Wastewater Map pic.twitter.com/kGk46t5GjA
— PACO (@PacoOnPause) August 13, 2024
Give whoever made this decision a big bonus, because it’s a fine example of stochastic eugencism (the colors are going to lead X number of people to conclude Covid is no problem — “It’s blue!” — and X percent of those people will take no precautions, infect themselves or others, and X percent of them will sicken or die, adding another tranche to America’s quasi-geological layering of mortality. I hope the yoga on the lawn makes up for it all:
Morning yoga on the lawn at CDC’s Atlanta campus! 🧘💪 pic.twitter.com/LvwWQMB2Ze
— Mandy K. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) June 5, 2024
Upcoming HICPAC meeting:
CDC’s committee meets on Aug 22 to discuss foundational guidelines on airborne infection control in nursing homes, hospitals & other health facilities. Will it update w/new science?
Many fear it won’t, allowing employers to put profits before protection. https://t.co/Gz6GNE7qIG
— Amy Maxmen, PhD (@amymaxmen) August 13, 2024
WHO still pushing “Baggy Blues.” After four years:
Going home from work?
Take care and #WearAMask when in crowded transportation. Help keep yourself and everyone safe from COVID-19, flu and other respiratory illnesses. #StaySafe pic.twitter.com/SCCeKvVI37
— World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific (@WHOWPRO) August 14, 2024
Couldn’t they at least signal one respirator by using white?
Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.
[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.
[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) It’s rumored that there’s a new variant in China, XDV.1, but it’s not showing up here.
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Inflation: “United States Consumer Price Index (CPII)” [Trading Economics]. “Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 314.54 points in July from 314.18 points in June of 2024.”
Inflation: “United States Core Inflation Rate” [Trading Economics]. “Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 314.54 points in July from 314.18 points in June of 2024.”
Retail: “Apartments, hockey rinks and Amazon warehouses: Macy’s closures will set off a wave of change at shopping malls” [CNBC]. “Macy’s decision to close nearly a third of its stores will spark change in malls and communities across the U.S. Some of those transformations may catch shoppers by surprise. The retailer said in late February that it plans to close about 150 of its namesake locations by early 2027. Macy’s has not yet revealed which stores it will shutter…. Yet the closures will be the latest catalyst that pressures malls to evolve to changing consumer tastes. Macy’s is shuttering stores as the growth of online shopping and demographic shifts mean some small towns or regions can no longer support a bustling shopping center. Macy’s closures will ultimately be a good thing for many malls and customers, said Chris Wimmer, senior director at Fitch Ratings who tracks real estate investment trusts. The department store’s exit will accelerate the inevitable demise of ‘low quality malls that really don’t need to exist anymore,’ Wimmer said. The closures will give the owners of healthier malls a chance to breathe new life and relevance into a shopping center.”
Retail: “Big Lots is closing hundreds of stores after warning it could go out of business” [CNN]. “Big Lots is closing more than 300 locations across the United States, or roughly a quarter of its stores, following an earlier warning that its future was in ‘substantial doubt’ amid ongoing financial troubles. The discount retailer previously said it planned to close as many as 40 stores during its most recent earnings report in June, when it recorded a 10% decrease in sales and a $205 million loss for the quarter because customers are cutting back on spending. In a recent regulatory filing, Big Lots said it would increase the number of closures to 315 stores, part of an updated loan agreement to secure its finances.”
Tech: “Hackers may have stolen the Social Security numbers of every American. Here’s how to protect yourself” [Los Angeles Times]. “According to a class-action lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., the hacking group USDoD claimed in April to have stolen personal records of 2.9 billion people from National Public Data, which offers personal information to employers, private investigators, staffing agencies and others doing background checks. The group offered in a forum for hackers to sell the data, which included records from the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, for $3.5 million, a cybersecurity expert said in a post on X…. The information consists of about 2.7 billion records, each of which includes a person’s full name, address, date of birth, Social Security number and phone number, along with alternate names and birth dates, Felice claimed.” And this: “Oddly enough, [new] accounts are especially vulnerable to identity thieves if you haven’t signed up for online access to them, Murray said — that’s because it’s easier for thieves to create a login and password while pretending to be you than it is for them to crack your existing login and password.” • Onward to digital currency!
Tech: “Entangled Photons Maintained under New York Streets” [Physics]. “Large-scale networks that distribute information among quantum processors or that use quantum encryption for the security of a large number of systems will require many pairs of quantum mechanically entangled photons per second. Sending these photons reliably through existing commercial fiber-optic communication lines is a challenge, given the fragility of entanglement. Now researchers have sent 20,000 such photons per second down a 34-km-long section of a New York fiber-optic network with a fidelity of 99% [1]. They sent these photons continuously for two weeks without the frequent recalibrations needed in previous systems with lower photon rates. The researchers say that their results are an important step toward the commercialization of quantum networks…. A team led by Mehdi Namazi, cofounder of New York-based start-up Qunnect, set out to produce a high-throughput, high-fidelity system using polarization entanglement. Qunnect’s GothamQ test bed is a 34-km loop of leased commercial fiber buried beneath the streets of New York City. Like any commercial fiber-optic network, GothamQ had sources of stress on the fibers that were impossible to identify, let alone isolate and mitigate. So the researchers had to devise a way to compensate for them.” • New York because New York is a financial center? “Photon arbitrage”?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 24 Exreme Fear (previous close: 23 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 23 (Extreme Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 13 at 1:21:45 PM ET.
“The Curse of Knowledge” [Ness Labs]. “It’s a cognitive bias that occurs when someone incorrectly assumes that others have enough background to understand…. One of the most famous illustrations of the curse of knowledge is a 1990 experiment which was conducted at Stanford by a graduate student named Elizabeth Newton. In this study, she asked a group of participants to ‘tap out’ famous songs with their fingers, while another group tried to name the melodies. When the ‘tappers’ were asked to predict how many of the songs would be recognised by the listeners, they would always overestimate. The ‘tappers’ were so familiar with what they were tapping, they assumed listeners would easily recognize the melody. These findings have interesting implications. For example, research suggests that sales people who are better informed about their product may be at a disadvantage compared to less-informed sales people. This is because the better-informed sales people fail to adjust their pitch to the level of knowledge of their prospects. Since the knowledge gap is smaller, lesser-informed sales people also find it easier to align on a pricing that both parties deem acceptable.” • Hmm.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Alpha Blob:
Alpha Blob writes: “Pitcher plant from Maine.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:
Here is the screen that will appear, which I have helpfully annotated:
If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!
