The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025. From Torsten Slok:
Source: Slok (2025).
While I’ve commented on the atavistic attributes of Republican sentiment as measured by the Michigan survey, I’ve not noted this inflation dimension.
Who would you count as more reliable? I don’t have the raw inflation expectations numbers by party affiliation, but I can do an ad hoc overlay of actual inflation on expected (recalling the last expected inflation observation then pertains to February 2026).
Where bold black line is actual inflation. The dates refer to the month the expectations data were collected (December 2023 for December 2024 y/y inflation). By April 2023, y/y inflation realizations were closer to Democrats’ inflation expectations than Republicans, and have continued to be so thereafter.
Binder (2023) discusses the partisan nature of inflation expectations with respect to switches of party in Presidential power.
