By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
More on the election shortly; I felt I needed to catch up with this rest of the world. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Blue-and-white Mockingbird, Montaña de Izopo–Sector Las Moras, Francisco Morazán, Honduras. “Longer cut of quiet song of clipped low phrases with sudden louder bursts interspersed, including mechanical-sounding vocalizations. Also heard are Painted Redstart, Dusky-capped Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, Orange-billed Nightingale-Thrush, and Hairy Woodpecker.”
In Case You Might Miss…
- CIA Democrats.
- Kamala and Biden teams at odds.
- Boeing to borrow billions, delays 777X, plans drastic white-collar cuts.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than thirty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error and go with the narrative, another good week for Trump, especially in MI and PA, tbough not, oddly, in the two hurricane swing states, GA and NC. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Kamala (D): “Tensions rise between Harris and Biden teams as election nears” [Axios]. “Biden gave an impromptu press conference in the White House briefing room Friday just as Harris was about to do an event in Michigan, ensuring that her event would get less TV coverage than it otherwise would have. Earlier in the week, Harris criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for not taking her call about the recent hurricanes, only for Biden to praise DeSantis soon after for being ‘gracious’ and ‘cooperative.’ (A person familiar with the situation told Axios that Biden hadn’t been briefed on Harris’ comments.) Biden has been eager to boast about a robust jobs report, helping to end the strike by the longshoremen’s union and other perceived victories recently. Harris has been trying to focus on voters’ pocketbook concerns, including inflation. One person involved with Harris’ campaign told Axios: ‘The White House is lacking someone in the room thinking first and foremost about how things would affect the campaign.’” • I’m starting to think “room” needs to be one of those words. Once you notice it, it’s everywhere. Started witb “adults in the room,” I think. Remember then?
Spook Country
“FBI’s role in Hunter Biden laptop scandal is worse than you know” [Andrew McCarthy, FOX]. “Still, the enduring relevance of the laptop is not as a Biden story, but as a story of the political corruption of the government’s law-enforcement and intelligence apparatus – pillars of our rule of law and our national security. Think about this: The FBI took possession of the laptop in December 2019, and quickly authenticated it – not hard to do because there was a mountain of publicly available information for purposes of corroborating the data, which was incontestably Hunter Biden’s. What’s the significance of that? Well, Election Day wasn’t until November 3, 2020. Hence, while early voting was already underway in the weeks before the election, the FBI had already known for nearly a year that the laptop was the real deal. Despite that, the bureau induced major social media titans, such as Twitter (now X) and Facebook, to suppress derogatory reporting about the Bidens – specifically, the New York Post’s mid-October 2020 reporting on the laptop. How? By deceptively intimating that the Post’s reporting was likely the result of an influence operation carried out by Russian intelligence. In reality, this was an influence operation carried out by current and former U.S. intelligence officials. The FBI was not alone. The government’s ‘Intelligence Community’ routinely shares information. The IC, too, is prone to hype Russian ‘interference’ in U.S. elections. Yet, such ‘influence operations’ are longstanding: Moscow interfered in American politics throughout the Cold War; it has continued to do so since the Soviet Union’s fall up to the present day. Influence ops are also reciprocal: U.S. spy agencies routinely sought to influence Soviet politics and, now, seek to undermine Putin. If they didn’t, what good would they be? For all the heavy-breathing by the media-Democrat complex, modern Russia is a basket-case country run by a mafia-style regime whose election-influence ops are often laughably amateurish. They are, moreover, a negligible ripple in the multi-billion-dollar ocean of American campaign messaging.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
“The CIA Democrats in the 2024 elections” [WSWS] From September. “There are 34 Democrats drawn from the ranks of the military-intelligence apparatus who are running for Congress this year, a continuation of the influx that began in force in 2018. For the fourth consecutive election, the CIA Democrats will grow in influence and numbers, further cementing the ties between this big business party and the most lethal agencies of the capitalist state…. Besides the numerical increase, the influx of CIA Democrats is escalating qualitatively. Two of the original class of CIA Democrats who won seats in the House of Representatives in 2018 are now seeking to move up to the Senate. Former CIA agent and Pentagon official Elissa Slotkin is giving up her Michigan House seat to run for the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of three-term Senator Debbie Stabenow. Former National Security Council official turned congressman Andy Kim is running in New Jersey to replace incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who was convicted on corruption charges and resigned. Both are favored to win…. In Virginia, former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger is not seeking reelection to her House seat, announcing plans instead to run for governor of Virginia next year, when Republican Glenn Youngkin leaves after the single term he is allowed under the state constitution. Spanberger is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Spanberger’s replacement in the House is likely to be the most prominent new military-intelligence Democrat: Eugene Vindman, a career military officer born in Ukraine.” Oh man. Vindman? More: “Besides Eugene Vindman, another high-profile military-intelligence operative is seeking a House seat as a Democrat: Maggie Goodlander, the wife of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.” The bottom line: “These numbers demonstrate that the influx of State Department, National Security Council, Pentagon and CIA operatives into Congress, by means of the Democratic Party, is not an accidental phenomenon, or the product of one election cycle. It is the outcome of a definite policy, which has two components. First, and creating opportunities for them to run in Democratic-leaning congressional districts where they are likely to be elected. Second, .” • We might as well be in Tsarist Russia, except the Okhrana got itself elected to the Duma.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Ulp (1):
Ulp (2):
“milking: ~12 hours a day in close contact w/ cows.
udders ~ high viral loads
need PPE to stop H5N1 bird flu and protect farmworkers, but hard to wear for hours in heat.
need full head helmet w/ powered, purified airflow.”https://t.co/qwMz0MelAD@RanuDhillon https://t.co/kTxu72t2v1
— Devabhaktuni “Sri” Srikrishna (@sri_srikrishna) October 15, 2024
If we were planning for a second pandemic — on top of Covid already weakened immunue systems at a population level — it’s to see how we could be doing a better job. And wastewater:
Vaccines
“New Nasal Vaccines Offer Better Protection from COVID and Flu—No Needle Needed” [Scientific American]. “Vaccines delivered through the nose are now being tested for several diseases. In the U.S., early clinical trials are showing success. Two of these vaccines have generated multiple immune system responses against the COVID-causing virus in people who received them through a puff up the nose; earlier this year their makers received nearly $20 million from Project NextGen, the Biden-Harris administration’s COVID medical initiative. Researchers are optimistic that a nasal spray delivering a COVID vaccine could be ready for the U.S. as soon as 2027. Although recent efforts have focused on inoculations against SARS-CoV-2, nasal vaccines could also protect us against the flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and more.” • 2027 [bangs head on desk].
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC October 5 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 5 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, data October 10: | National [6] CDC September 21: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens October 7: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 16: | Variants[10] CDC September 16: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Still some hot spots, but I can’t draw circles around entire regions this week. Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted to -11.9 in October 2024, down from 11.5 in September and surprising analysts who expected it at 3.8. This marks the worst reading since May, pointing to a renewed contraction in the New York State and at a solid pace.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s crisis is getting worse. Now it’s borrowing tens of billions of dollars” [CNN]. “In a regulatory filing early Tuesday, the company announced plans to borrow $10 billion from a consortium of banks. It also separately announced plans to raise $25 billion by selling stock and debt. The $10 billion borrowing plans would be included in the $25 billion that Boeing filed to raise…. Boeing’s credit rating has plunged to the lowest investment-grade level – just above “junk bond” status – and major credit rating agencies have warned Boeing is in danger of being downgraded to junk. That would raise its cost of borrowing.”
Manufacturing: “Official: Boeing 777X delivery delayed until at least 2026” [Mile Lion]. “Up till recently, Boeing was still making optimistic noises about a late 2025 debut for the aircraft, with Emirates CEO Tim Clark stating at the 2023 Dubai Airshow that he hoped to get his first B777-9 by October 2025. But that was always going to be a tall order, and now we have official confirmation of what’s perhaps the worst-kept secret in aviation: the Boeing 777X is officially delayed till at least 2026. Keep in mind, it’s not just the work stoppage that’s the problem. The B777X has had a torrid time with its certification, with the FAA chiding the airline at one point that its proposed certification schedule was ‘outdated and no longer reflect the programme activities.’ While the all-important Type Inspection Authorisation (TIA) was granted in July 2024, enabling the company to begin the certification process, it’s not all been smooth sailing. Just a couple of months ago, the test fleet was grounded after a routine post-flight inspection revealed the failure of a thrust link that mounts the engine to the aircraft.” • Yikes.
Manufacturing: “Emirates’ Clark raises ‘looming’ specter of Boeing bankruptcy protection” [The Air Current]. “In an email to The Air Current following the announced Oct. 11 delay to the certification of Boeing’s 777-9 flagship jetliner, [Emirates president Sir Tim Clark, Boeing’s largest twin-aisle jet customer,] said, ‘Unless the company is able to raise funds through a Rights Issue, I see an imminent investment downgrade with Chapter 11 looming on the horizon.’” • Or nationalization.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Is Flexing the Financial Muscle It Has Left” [Bloomberg]. The deck: “Investors are betting that a backlog of almost 5,500 aircraft will eventually unlock a mountain of cash.” More: “Well, the company has about 5,500 aircraft that it has already sold and only needs to assemble and deliver. Investors see a mountain of cash locked up in that backlog. All the company has to do is settle a nasty strike of 33,000 machinists, revamp its work culture to put quality above all, stabilize its supply chain, finish work on the new 777X aircraft and crank out planes. In fewer words, Boeing needs to execute. This is a daunting task, and most investors believe the company has finally chosen the right person to pull off this historic turnaround after Kelly Ortberg was hired as chief executive officer in August. The thermometer for investor sentiment around Boeing’s ability to right the ship will be reflected in the price of the new shares, which could raise $10 billion or more to help shore up its finances.” • So I guess that’s why Ortberg is busting the machinist’s chops? For “investor sentiment”?
Manufacturing: “Boeing layoff plan suggests deep white-collar job cuts” [Seattle Times]. “The exclusion for now of 33,000 Machinists from the planned cuts means that Boeing can reach the 10% target stated in the slides for the Commercial Airplanes unit only through deep cuts among the white-collar staff, including engineers and nonunion salaried employees…. Perhaps the thinking is that laying off Machinists now might inflame passions and make the strike more difficult to settle. If that’s so, blue-collar layoffs could come later. Still, the need for the layoffs has little to do with the Machinists’ strike. It’s a restructuring by new CEO Kelly Ortberg designed to address the broader and deeper problems Boeing faces….The only way forward for Boeing is to start building planes again and to ramp up production back to the rates planned before the January blowout. To achieve those rates, it had been hiring machinists at a rapid clip. Whenever the strike ends, it will need most of those machinists ready to swing into action.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 74 Greed (previous close: 76 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 70 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 15 at 1:03:44 PM ET.
TheCurrent Cinema
The production process for silent films:
On this day in 1893, silent superstar Lillian Gish was born in Springfield, Ohio. In 1988, I wrote to her asking if silent films had actual dialogue written out in the scripts or if there was just a general description of what was being said. This was her remarkable reply. pic.twitter.com/Tzv8EgnZhz
— Steve Stoliar (@StoliarSteve) October 14, 2024
Worth the clickthrough to avoid Twitter’s stupid cropping.
Photo Book
Via alert reader Wukschumi:
“Time is what you make of it.” I wish!
Slaves (implicit):
yeah the clear goal of this technology is to be able to outsource in-person service jobs to hyper-exploited workers in the global south, not liberate human labor from service work. https://t.co/AvXwuqtVlH
— Cassie Pritchard (@hecubian_devil) October 13, 2024
Of course, the goal is never to “liberate human labor.” Who would be silly enough to imagine that?
Slaves (explicit). ANC = African National Congress:
Imagine having a housekeeper that doesn’t vote ANC, doesn’t have 55 uncle’s funerals to attend every year, won’t steal your food, and you only have to pay for it once?
Sign me up pic.twitter.com/IW8XrREn5Q
— Keanu (@Keanubtc) October 11, 2024
“You only have to pay for it once.” Indeed. Now if we can just get them to reproduce…
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