Yves here. It seems puzzling that the CBO has found that at proposed GOP plan to reduce Social Security benefits by increasing the “full retirement age” from 67 to 69 would succeed in lowering payments, particularly to those who wanted/needed to retire at an earlier age and receive reduced benefits, without actually improving fund solvency. The nomenclature is confusing, since the later you begin taking Social Security, the higher the benefits are, with 70 the latest start date now. I have not had the time to kick the tires and hope to be able to look at analyses. Perhaps the reason for the lack of a solvency improvement is a gradual phase in.
Having said that, it seems that this plan is an existing Republican scheme (I took a brief look at the CBO study and it links to a 2022 description as a source) that has also in some form (not sure if that embodiment or a more general handwave) been picked up by Project 2025. Even though the Democrats have been trying to make Project 2025 a Trump agenda, it is an extreme conservative wish list (with internal contradictions!) that hard core Republicans would try hard to get Trump to adopt. So even though one should indeed worry that Trump is on board, no one has produced the receipts.
On top of that, let us also not forget that both Clinton and Obama fully intended to “reform” as in cut, Social Security, but for different reasons never got there. So those who want to protect and strengthen Social Security must not assume Team Dem is their friend. Both parties need to get the message that they must increase payroll taxes by ending the income cap or otherwise taxing higher income earners more, rather than lowering benefits.
Separately, even though the Social Security Administration is the most important actuarial position in the US, I wonder to what degree its models have been updated to reflect the shortening in US lifespans (which for the moment has stalled out) and the prospects for more of the same given long-term Covid health effects and ever-less-affordable US health care. You would think that the resulting thinning of the aged would somewhat improve Social Security solvency, but I have seen no reports of the kind.
Note that Trump is presenting himself as increasing incomes of Social Security beneficiaries in his ads. I have seen YouTube promos with a clip from one of his rallies in which Trump says he will stop taxing tips and Social Security benefits. Natch, the roughly 40% who pay income taxes have higher earnings.
By Jessica Corbett, staff writer at Common Dreams. Originally published at Common Dreams
Social Security defenders have long argued that former Republican U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office could spell disaster for seniors, and a nonpartisan government analysis released Wednesday bolsters their warnings.
U.S. House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) asked the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to analyze the impact of raising the full retirement age (FRA) for Social Security from 67 to 69, as various Republican groups have proposed.
“This report shows that raising the retirement age to 69 would slash benefits by an average of $3,500 a year,” Social Security Works executive director Alex Lawson told Common Dreams. “For seniors and people with disabilities, that means not being able to buy groceries, pay a heating bill, or buy birthday presents for their grandkids.”
“This cruel benefit cut would hit those who claim benefits early—largely people who work on their feet, not those who work in offices—the hardest,” Lawson noted. “Even worse, it is only one of the benefit cuts that Republicans are backing. Their goal is to destroy our Social Security system.”
As CBO Director Phillip L. Swagel wrote to Boyle:
All people affected by such an increase in the FRA would receive a smaller amount of Social Security benefits over their lifetime. Workers who chose to delay claiming their retirement benefits by the same number of months as the increase in the FRA would receive the same monthly benefit for a shorter period. Those workers who claimed retirement benefits at the same age as they would have claimed them under current law would receive a smaller benefit for the same number of years.
In a statement responding to the report, Boyle’s office highlighted that “for workers currently in their 30s and 40s who are subject to the full retirement age increase, the average annual benefit cut would be 13%, or around $3,500 a year.”
As the congressman’s office pointed out, the CBO also found that “though increasing the retirement age would reduce spending, it would not create enough savings to change the expected exhaustion date of the Social Security Trust Fund, which is projected to be unable to pay full benefits by the end of fiscal year 2034.”
Boyle and Senate Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) have introduced the Medicare and Social Security Fair Share Act, which would extend the solvency of both programs by requiring Americans with higher incomes to pay more than they do now.
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BREAKING: The Republican Social Security scams (looking at you Project 2025👀) are a BAD deal for the American people ⏬ https://t.co/A9zYuqlwoJ
— Ways and Means Democrats (@WaysMeansCmte) September 25, 2024
“Social Security is a sacred promise that after a lifetime of hard work, Americans have earned the right to retire with dignity,” Boyle said Wednesday. “This independent, nonpartisan report shows just how devastating Republican plans to rip away hard-earned Social Security benefits would be for American workers.”
“Instead of saving Social Security by making the ultrarich pay their fair share, the GOP is hellbent on gutting benefits for the middle class,” he warned, specifically calling out the congressional Republican Study Committee and the Heritage Foundation, which is behind Project 2025. “Democrats will never stop fighting to keep the promise of Social Security and defend Americans’ retirement security from Republican attacks.”
The CBO report comes less than six weeks away from the U.S. general election. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is facing Trump in the race for the White House.
Donald Trump plans to slash Social Security and Medicare while giving massive tax handouts to billionaires. https://t.co/lAPsSoEVMQ
— Social Security Works (@SSWorks) September 25, 2024
Before President Joe Biden left the contest and passed the torch to Harris, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare, National United Committee to Protect Pensions, and Social Security Works Political Action Committee were backing him over Trump. All three groups have endorsed Harris.
“As president, Biden has been an unwavering protector of Social Security and Medicare,” Social Security Works president Nancy Altman wrote in a July opinion piece for Common Dreams. “Harris will be as fierce a defender, and she will do more. She will expand Social Security and Medicare and ensure that all benefits will continue to be paid in full and on time for the foreseeable future by requiring billionaires to pay their fair share.”
“In stark contrast, Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress are a serious threat to our earned benefits and to our families,” she stressed, also warning of the GOP’s positions on medication prices and tax breaks for the rich. “A vote for Democrats is a vote to expand benefits, lower prescription drug prices, and require those billionaires to start paying their fair share.”
