Bird Song of the Day
Sage Thrasher, Elko, Nevada, United States. “Songs from a bird perched on the tops of short juniper trees.”
In Case You Might Miss…
- The state of the electoral college.
- Trump turning populist in the home stretch?
- Boeing “Best And Final Offer” roundly rejected by machinists.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
2024
Less than fifty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If there was a debate bounce, it was very small. If I were the Trump campaign, I’d be very worried about Pennsylvania. Maybe a reader from Pennsylvania can clarify. Are we looking at something like a North Philly Democrat/Bucks County Never Trumper Alliance? Once again, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — no doubt there will be another liberalgasm after Oprah — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.
* * * If the election were held today:
I made this map at 270toWin through the simple expedient of moving all “leaning” states to Red or Blue, then looking at RCP’s swing state chart and giving each state to the currently leading candidate. This is in no sense a prediction; I’m just demonstrating how close the race is. Also, playing around with the Swing States on the map…. It’s a hard problem. I would imagine both campaigns are both under incredible pressure and not clear what can be done (if anything). If the election is to be decided at a margin composed of tiny increments, how are those increments to be targeted and persuaded? Is it even possible?
“2024 has been an ‘unprecedented’ election, but the polls are telling us another story” [The Hill]. “The campaign sprint to Election Day has begun, and as always, an inordinate amount of attention is on public polling. Those polls are telling us the real story of the campaign so far — but are we willing to listen? Looking across the campaign over the last six months, beyond the wilder twists — including not just two vice presidential selections but also President Biden’s unprecedented withdrawal and two attempts on Donald Trump’s life — a clearer story emerges. The only significant changes in head-to-head presidential polling happened in quick succession: after Biden’s debate, and then after Harris replaced him as the nominee. That’s it — all the rest is noise…. In both 2012 and 2016, the election was very tight at this stage. In 2016, Hillary Clinton held just a 2-point lead two months out; Barack Obama held a 4-point lead at this point in 2012….. What about the states? That’s the right question, because the winning candidate has to win 270 electoral votes by winning states, not the national vote. But when it comes to polling, the math is very complicated. Because of their dominance among rural voters, the GOP is better positioned to win without winning the national popular vote, as Democrats rack up “extra” votes in the urban areas of states like California and New York. So what do the polls say about which states we should we look at? Here’s where the calculations are hardest. Polls vary in quality and frequency at the state level, making it difficult to truly assess the relative ‘winnability’ of different states. Moreover, (and parts of states in Nebraska and Maine) . One cycle’s pivotal states are often different from the previous one. In 2020, the pivotal states were Georgia and Arizona. In 2016, it was the ‘blue wall’ of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And in 2012, Obama took former Republican strongholds Florida, Ohio and Virginia. What’s it going to be in 2024? Could it be the Blue Wall again? Or perhaps a combination of Georgia and Pennsylvania? The polls will point to any number of states, but just like in 2012 and 2016, the states that determine the election might be different from what we expected. ” • Like Hollywood: “Nobody knows anything.”
* * * Kamala (D): Prying “fighting for” only from their cold, dead hands:
Donald Trump fights for billionaires and large corporations.
I am fighting for working and middle-class Americans. pic.twitter.com/UGmgjAkySd
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) September 24, 2024
Twice!
* * * Trump (R): “Trump listens during a farming event in rural Pennsylvania, then threatens John Deere with tariffs” [Associated Press]. “Trump listens.” What a headline. Susan Wiles must be ecstatic. ” Donald Trump sat in a large barn in rural Pennsylvania on Monday, asking questions of farmers and offering jokes but, in a rarity for his campaign events, mostly listening. The bombastic former president was unusually restrained at an event about China’s influence on the U.S. economy, a roundtable during which farmers and manufacturers expressed concerns about losing their way of life. Behind Trump were large green tractors and a sign declaring ‘Protect our food from China.’ The event in Smithton, Pennsylvania, gave Trump a chance to drive his economic message against Vice President Kamala Harris, arguing that imposing tariffs and boosting energy production will lower costs. He highlighted Harris’ reversal of a previous vow to ban fracking, a method of producing natural gas key to Pennsylvania’s economy. And he noted the tractors behind him were manufactured by John Deere, which announced in June it was moving skid steer and track loader manufacturing to Mexico and working to acquire land there for a new factory. Trump threatened the firm with a 200% tariff should he win back the presidency and it opted to export manufacturing to Mexico. ‘If they want to build in the United States, there’s no tariff,’ he added.” • Worked in 2016. Why not do what worked?
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission
The market responds:
I was actually quite pleased to discover the HEPA filters are in the “Wellness” section of the electrical store with huge labels on them saying they reduce flu and COVID in the air.
That’s been a long time in the pipeline.— Dr Noor Bari (@NjbBari3) September 21, 2024
This account, however, is from Australia. Any local sightings?
Vaccines: Covid
“Is the Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine Better?” [Time]. “Novavax uses a protein-based vaccine strategy, which means people getting the vaccine receive a protein made by the virus that their body’s immune systems then see as foreign and mount responses against. mRNA vaccines, by contrast, include snippets of mRNA genetic material from the COVID-19 virus’ spike protein…. The protein is coupled with what vaccine makers call an adjuvant, or additional compound that further activates the immune system to enhance the body’s response to the virus. ‘One major advantage of the adjuvant is that it works not only on the antibody side in terms of the immune response, but it also activates the T cells,’ says [Bob Walker, chief medical officer at Novavax]. ‘And T cells have many functions in the body—one is to fight viruses, and the other is to help antibody-producing cells to make more antibodies.’”
Sequelae: Covid
Not a news story, not a political issue:
Someone posted this question on Reddit yesterday:
“After all these years, did any of you get any type of permanent damage from getting Covid? If so, what is it?”
There are over 1,200 comments so far.
These are the real stories of real people.https://t.co/8GRvO17SQ4 pic.twitter.com/V3Qi8bDYdi
— Cat in the Hat 🐈⬛ 🎩 🇬🇧 (@_CatintheHat) September 23, 2024
“What Repeat COVID Infections Do to Your Body, According to Science” [Self]. “These days, it’s tempting to compare COVID-19 with the common cold or flu. It can similarly leave you with a nasty cough, fever, sore throat—the full works of respiratory symptoms. And it’s also become a part of the societal fabric, perhaps something you’ve resigned yourself to catching at least a few times in your life (even if you haven’t already)…. It turns out, SARS-CoV-2 is more nefarious than these other contagious bugs, and our immune response to it, often larger and longer-lasting. COVID has a better ability to camouflage itself in the body, “and it has the keys to the kingdom in the sense that it can unlock any cell and get in,” says Esther Melamed, PhD, an assistant professor in the department of neurology at Dell Medical School, University of Texas Austin, and the research director of the Post-COVID-19 program at UT Health Austin. That’s because SARS-CoV-2 binds to ACE2 receptors, which exist in cells all over your body, from your heart to your gut to your brain. (By contrast, cold and flu viruses replicate mostly in your respiratory tract.)” And: ‘A 2022 study led by Dr. Al-Aly found that COVID reinfections also increase your risk of complications across the board, regardless of whether you recovered just fine in the past or got vaccinated. In particular, it showed that reinfection raises the likelihood that you’ll need hospitalization; have heart or lung problems; or experience, among other possible issues, GI, neurological, mental health, or musculoskeletal symptoms. ‘We use the term ‘cumulative effects,” Dr. Al-Aly says, ‘so, multiple hits accrue and then leave the body more vulnerable to all the potential long-term health effects of COVID.’” • Perhaps a real expert can review this article, but I’m impressed, partly by Al-Aly getting quoted, and also by a link to a study in Nature (!). It’s a little stunning to see a dense, well-researched article on Covid in a popular magazine like Self (putting mainstream sources like the Atlantic or Vox to shame, not to mention our moribund public health establishment). Well worth a read.
Sequelae: H5N1
“Avian flu outbreak devastates Michigan dairy” [Farm Progress]. “With a closed herd and all his heifers artificially inseminated — no outside bulls needed — Nathan Brearley was confident his 500-cow dairy farm in Portland, Mich., would be spared from the avian flu strain that’s affecting dairies. He was wrong. Nearly six months later after an infection on his farm, milk production still hasn’t recovered. ‘I was quite surprised. I never saw any other disease this widespread affect the cattle like it did,’ Brearley said during a recent webinar on dairy avian flu, put on by the Pennsylvania Center for Dairy Excellence. With 29 confirmed cases — the latest being Sept. 9 — Michigan’s dairy industry has been one of the hardest hit by avian flu, H5N1, which was first confirmed in a Texas dairy in March…. Testing eventually revealed that his cows did indeed contract H5N1. But how they contracted it, he said, is still a mystery…. Five percent of the herd had to be culled… Brearley said an egg-laying facility a mile and a half away tested positive for H5N1 and had to depopulate millions of birds. The birds were composted in windrows outside the facility, ‘and I could smell that process.’ Whether the disease moved from that farm to his has not been confirmed, but multiple farms in his neighborhood also tested positive for the disease, Brearley said.” • Well, that would imply (a) transmission by egg facility workers, or (b) airborne (which, given the smell, seems a good candidate).
Origins Debate
“Genetic tracing of market wildlife and viruses at the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” [Cell]. “Zoonotic spillovers of viruses have occurred through the animal trade worldwide. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was traced epidemiologically to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Here, we analyze environmental qPCR and sequencing data collected in the Huanan market in early 2020. We demonstrate that market-linked severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic diversity is consistent with market emergence and find increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity near and within a wildlife stall. We identify wildlife DNA in all SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from this stall, including species such as civets, bamboo rats, and raccoon dogs, previously identified as possible intermediate hosts. We also detect animal viruses that infect raccoon dogs, civets, and bamboo rats.” • Graphical abstract:
Elite Maleficence
Fixation on handwashing (and not airborne) considered as a psychological disorder:
Did some of them actually get into the field because they have an actual condition that focuses on obsessive hygiene?
And that they’re driven in ways that aren’t logical.
— tern (@1goodtern) September 23, 2024
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Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 14 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 14 |
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| ★ New York[5] New York State, data September 23: |
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| National[7] Walgreens September 23: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7: |
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| Positivity[9] CDC September 2: | Variants[10] CDC September 2: |
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| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 14: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 14: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down. NOTE Statewide, there is an uptick. Not in New York City, Long Island, or Mid-Hudson.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District edged down to -21 in September of 2024, from -19 in August, worse than forecasts of -17, indicating the steepest decline in factory activity since May 2020.”
Supply Chain: “ILA contract negotiations: US supply chains brace for disruption” [Freight Waves]. “The ILA agreement affects ports along the entire East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States. These ports span from Maine all the way down to Texas, including major hubs such as Boston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charleston, Savannah, Miami, New Orleans, Houston and several more. The repercussions of such a strike would be significant. The ILA represents 65,000 dockworkers at ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, responsible for handling approximately 43% of U.S. imports. A disruption in operations at these ports would ripple through the entire supply chain, affecting businesses across various sectors. Retailers, manufacturers and consumers could all feel the impact of delayed shipments, increased costs and potential shortages of essential goods. Several key issues remain unresolved in the negotiations. The ILA is seeking wage increases, improved benefits and job security protections. However, the primary point of contention centers on automation and its potential impact on dockworker jobs. The union is staunchly opposed to any further automation of port operations, fearing it could lead to significant job losses. On the other hand, the USMX argues that automation is necessary to increase efficiency and competitiveness in the face of growing global trade. I would further argue that automation is needed to keep pace with ports around the world, including innovations in ports such as the Netherlands, Germany, Singapore and Australia. The potential strike has raised alarms among supply chain experts, who warn of a ‘catastrophic effect’ on U.S. commerce.”
“Boeing’s latest offer to striking workers sparks union fury” [Financial Times]. “The company said it was making a ‘best and final’ offer, which also includes better retirement benefits than a deal that 33,000 union members rejected earlier this month. The manufacturer has said the offer is only good if union members vote in favour by Friday. But the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 forcefully dismissed the offer, saying Boeing had no authority to require a vote and that four days was too little time to prepare for one. ‘This offer was not negotiated,’ the union said. ‘It was thrown at us without any discussion . . . The company has refused to meet for further discussion; therefore, we will not be voting on [Friday].’” • So, no problems for Boeing raising cash?
Manufacturing: “Ortberg’s honeymoon with Boeing’s labor unions is over” [Leeham News and Analysis]. “The desire of Kelly Ortberg, the new CEO of The Boeing Co., to reset labor relations with its largest union came to a crashing halt yesterday…. Ninety-six percent of the members concurrently voted to strike at midnight. They were walking the picket lines when Boeing issued its Best and Final Offer (BAFO) on Sept. 23. The offer sweetened the pot in some key areas…. But how the offer came about and was delivered incensed union members… In preparing and presenting the BAFO, Boeing ignored the IAM’s negotiating team. Two days of talks under federal mediation failed. The IAM complained that Boeing refused to return to the negotiating table. (On Sept. 13, the day after the original contract was rejected and the strike began, company CFO Brian West said Boeing was anxious to resume negotiations.) Boeing released details of the BAFO to the media before presenting it to 751 President Jon Holden…. Ortberg came under criticism from the union for the first offer, but as he had been on the job only a few weeks, there was some room to give him some leeway. How Boeing handled the BAFO, however, wrecked any benefits of the doubt that may have existed.” • Presumably, then, this is why Ortberg was actually hired?
Manufacturing: “Analyst adjusts Boeing stock price target on strike impact” [The Street]. This caught my eye: “‘As a newcomer not responsible for past issues, the new Boeing CEO has a short window to build trust and meet the expectations to set a new direction, so that stakeholders see him as an agent of change rather than another part of the organization seeking to maintain the status quo,’ said Ashley Fulmer, assistant professor of managerial science at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business. Fulmer said that rebuilding trust in Boeing is challenged by the emotional fallout from past failures “as people typically experience emotions such as anger, fear and anxiety after trust violations.’” • No kidding, huh?
Manufacturing: “Striking Machinists find little to like in new Boeing offer, won’t vote on it” [Seattle Times]. “[L]ater Monday, the union expressed anger at Boeing making the offer directly to its members via the media. The union leadership said it will refuse to hold a vote on the offer this Friday to meet Boeing’s stated deadline…[nternational Association of Machinists District 751 president Jon Holden…. added that the union realistically doesn’t have enough time to arrange a vote for Friday. ‘We couldn’t even get logistically a vote for 33,000 people across multiple states in that amount of time, and without the ability to even talk to our members about it in a meaningful way,’ he said.” • And is the union demanding that the expiration date of the new contract be May 1, 2028?
Manufacturing: “FAA says Boeing safety culture reforms may take years” [Reuters]. ” The head of the Federal Aviation Administration told a U.S. House subcommittee Tuesday that safety culture improvements at Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab may take three to five years to complete.
‘It is not a six-month program — it is a three-year to five-year program,’ FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said, adding he has spoken to Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and the company’s board of directors about the need for safety culture reforms. He said Boeing has made significant improvement in the short term. ‘On culture it is a long-term project…. There is progress but they are not where they need to be.’” • So Boeing management’s first move is to beat the unions into the ground. So awesome. (Also, “spoken to the board.” Why aren’t the unions demanding board seats?)
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 66 Greed (previous close: 64 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 55 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 24 at 12:58:26 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on Interest Rates. “The Federal Reserve lowers rates by .5%” [sic] [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 180. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?
Gallery
Not Courbet!
Clearing, 1867 pic.twitter.com/hsPm6dO7KA
— Paul Cezanne (@cezanneart) September 21, 2024
“Inside the island fortress of America’s mega-billionaires” [Business Insider]. “As my boat cruises toward the private island city of Indian Creek Village — better known as the Billionaire Bunker — I’m hoping my trip doesn’t end in an arrest… As we get closer to the shore, I start to notice the cameras. Their beady eyes are everywhere. Some are mounted on poles along the seawall. Others peek out from hedges. Many are connected to an inconspicuous white box — an Israeli-designed radar system capable of detecting passersby, in low visibility, from half a mile away. There is no way for a person to set foot on Indian Creek without the express permission of one of its 89 residents or a member of its ultra exclusive country club, which reportedly costs $500,000 to join. Because the town’s government serves such an ultra wealthy subset of the population, things like public parks and social programs are practically nonexistent. Instead, the lion’s share of Indian Creek’s budget goes to its police department — which keeps watch on the island’s sole entrance and patrols the perimeter 24/7. Through federal funds, the town has also amassed a panoply of other security measures that would make Bezos’ Ring cameras blush. ‘The wealthier you become, the more you want perfect security,’ says Setha Low, the director of the Public Space Research Group, a center at the City University of New York that focuses on the access and control of everything from city parks to gated communities.” • About those cameras… See on Diddy, immediately below.
From April:
NEW: Diddy’s former bodyguard Gene Deal suggests that Diddy may have tapes of politicians, princes and even preachers which could now be in the hands of the feds.
“I don’t think it’s only celebrities gonna be shook. He had politicians in there, he had princes in there. He also… pic.twitter.com/hheJPwrKMe
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 5, 2024
I would entertain the hypothesis that at Diddy’s (billionaire) level, participation in dense networks held together by blackmail and extortion is the rule, rather than the exception; criminogenic social capital would be the analytical tool here, I would suppose.
Dad.
— No Context Brits (@NoContextBrits) September 23, 2024
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