Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) stock has had quite a ride since its debut. It peaked at around $58 per share in 2021, before production of the company’s EVs got underway in earnest. And while the company’s Air luxury sedan has received rave reviews, its sales have been underwhelming — and like many other electric vehicle stocks, its share price has fallen over 90% from those lofty 2021 heights.
But where do things stand for Lucid now, in 2024? If you like the car (I do), and you’ve thought about buying the stock while it’s cheap, there are some things you should know. Here are five.
How does Lucid’s EV technology compare with that of its rivals?
Simply put, Lucid stacks up well against the competition.
The company claims to offer the lowest-cost battery pack per mile of range in the business. It’s a fair claim: Even the most basic $70,000 version of the Air comes with 410 miles of EPA-estimated range, more than Tesla offers in its similarly sized Model S.
Move up to the Air Grand Touring, starting around $109,000, and you’ll get an estimated 516 miles of range — along with a whopping 819 horsepower and a ton of high-tech luxury features. And all versions of the Air can add 200 miles of range in less than 20 minutes at a 350-kilowatt fast charger.
Reviewers love the Air’s ride and handling, too.
Who is Lucid’s biggest investor?
Lucid’s biggest investor by far is Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, called the Public Investment Fund or PIF. PIF has invested a total of $6.4 billion in Lucid since 2018, including $1 billion in March. It currently owns about 60% of the automaker.
The Saudi government has supported Lucid in other ways. In 2022, its Ministry of Finance agreed to buy at least 50,000, and possibly as many as 100,000, vehicles from Lucid over the following 10 years — with deliveries expected to ramp up significantly in 2025.
How much demand has there been for the Lucid Air?
Lucid’s sales have consistently fallen short of expectations. The Air is a superb EV, but the market for six-figure sedans, electric or otherwise, is pretty thin, and sales haven’t materialized in the numbers that Lucid and its early investors hoped to see.
Consider: Lucid had originally expected to build 20,000 Airs in 2022, but it ended up building just 3,493. In 2023, Lucid produced 8,428 vehicles and delivered 6,001 — better, but still nowhere near its original expectations. It’s hoping to build about 9,000 in 2024.
Lucid’s next model, a big luxury SUV called Gravity, is expected to launch before the end of 2024. The Gravity should help boost Lucid’s deliveries to some extent once production ramps up early next year.
But what Lucid really needs to get to profitability is a lower-priced midsize model. That won’t arrive until late 2026 at the earliest, Lucid said in May.
All of that raises an important question: Does Lucid have enough cash to get to profitability?
Lucid needs more cash
At the moment, the answer is no.
Lucid had $5 billion on hand as of the end of March. It said in May that should be enough to launch the Gravity and keep the lights on into the second quarter of 2025. But there’s not much chance Lucid will turn a profit before production of the future midsize model ramps up — and that won’t happen before 2027, even if we’re optimistic.
Clearly, Lucid will need more cash. That has been a theme throughout its history: As I mentioned, it has already raised $1 billion in 2024, on top of the $3 billion it raised in May 2023, the $1.5 billion it raised in December 2022, and on and on.
PIF was a major participant in all of those funding rounds, but even the most optimistic investors have to ask: How much more will PIF be willing to invest?
Is Lucid stock a buy?
On one hand, Lucid stock is cheap. Its market cap is around $6.1 billion as I write this, not much more than its cash hoard. Lucid’s product is excellent, and there’s a reasonable plan to expand the lineup in a cost-effective way.
But on the other hand, it’s cheap for a reason.
It’s true that Lucid is a much more complete business than now-bankrupt rival Fisker ever was. Lucid owns a factory, its cars have groundbreaking technology developed in-house, and it has a base of thousands of happy owners.
But automakers need scale to survive and profit. Even if all goes well, Lucid won’t get to sustainable scale for at least a few more years — and it’ll burn billions of dollars between now and then, much of which it has yet to raise.
If you love the Lucid Air and understand the company’s situation, I won’t argue if you decide to take a small position in the stock. You’ll need to be patient, but it could pay off nicely in time.
Just keep in mind that the risks are significant, and profitability is still a long way off.
Should you invest $1,000 in Lucid Group right now?
Before you buy stock in Lucid Group, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Lucid Group wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $791,929!*
Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 8, 2024
John Rosevear has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
5 Things to Know Before Buying Lucid Stock was originally published by The Motley Fool