By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Mourning Warbler, Shannondale Springs Wildlife Managment Area, Jefferson, West Virginia, United States. “As per Wil Hershberger, this recording is of an adult male Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) that was visually identified and in sight throughout the recording. This recording was originally archived as Mourning Warbler, but the identification was later mistakenly changed by an ML archivist due to the similarity of this bird’s song to the song of Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica). The subject has been changed back to Mourning Warbler as per the recordist.” Category errors abound.
John Zelnicker was a long-time reader and commenter at Naked Capitalism. He was also the instigator of the Naked Capitalism Songboook, now in four volumes (thanks to the songwriting and parodic talents of many NC readers).
He died on Wednesday of this week. From his obituary:
John was a lover of music and books, women, technology, top-shelf Scotch, religious history, philosophy, economics, and playing with numbers. He would read The Lord of the Rings trilogy and attend at least one Grateful Dead concert during every summer break from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. John was a corporate hippie, running his own tax accounting business while wearing hideous tie-dye Crocs.
He was a remarkably gracious man, a Southern gentleman to his core, recklessly generous, and so intelligent one could hardly keep up with him. John made friends without even realizing it, and there was never a lost soul who crossed his path that he didn’t try to help if he could. Over the years, many people told him that he should write a memoir, but he preferred to share his incredible stories in person and boy, he could tell one helluva story.
After working with John on the Songbooks, I know I can speak for all who talked with him when I say that indeed his memoir would have been quite something, and it would have been an honor to have been included within it.
And:
Never a fan of fanfare, and with sincere apologies to his friends and family, John requested no ceremony or service upon his passing. Instead, he hoped that people would choose to honor his life by donating to their local public library or to Penelope House in Mobile, Alabama.
A big fan of libraries, too, which speaks well of him.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Friday charts: The election (tied), and Covid (improved).
- Kamala’s speeches on economics.
- New 737 malfunction (rudder pedals) discovered as negotiators back at the table.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Kamala (D): “Harris Has a Manufacturing Agenda—in a Fact Sheet” [The American Prospect]. The deck: “Her speech on the economy was guarded. The details laid out by the campaign paint a brighter picture.” I would have expected it to be the other way round; a “fact sheet” is marketing collateral. In a speech — I grant a discount is to be heavily applied — the candidate gives some approximation of their word. (That’s why “Read my lips, no new taxes” backfied so badly for Bush the Elder, for example.) “Because Harris got such a late start campaigning, she doesn’t have the years of consistent messaging native to most presidential candidates. And she is hypersensitive about being tagged as a radical, both to the voting public and to the donor base that has driven up her fundraising. Trying to both lock in trust and dispel mischaracterizations, to both pitch toward the undecided voter and maintain the hype from the base that accompanied her substitution for Joe Biden in the race, is a real high-wire act. It leads to cockeyed statements like quoting Franklin Roosevelt’s desire for ‘bold, persistent experimentation’ (to get out of the Depression, in his case) with a promise for ‘practical solutions’ and ‘pragmatic’ approaches, which may be virtuous but are less than bold.” • Possibly. My thesis that Kamala will say whatever she has to say because she doesn’t know who she is yields an equally powerful account — albeit an account without what some would interpret as charity, and others as special pleading — that covers her entire career and, importantly, has fewer epicycles to “save the phenomena” (hat tip, William of Occam).
Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and what (little) we can learn from a softball interview” [Washington Examiner]. “So what can be drawn from 25 minutes of softballs and non- and semi-answers? Not much. But a few scraps: First, with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris can mention things like wanting a “path to citizenship” for illegal border crossers without fear of further questions. (Harris has supported the “path” policy for years and included it in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech.) Second, again with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris won’t even make an attempt to answer questions she doesn’t want, such as the difference between inflation and price gouging and her role in creating the Biden-era inflation. And third, again with a friendly, supportive interviewer, Harris will not or cannot give a better answer than her first long soliloquy about aspirations and ambitions and dreams and whatever. Yes, those are small benefits. The public deserves to see Harris facing a true interviewer, one who would question her statements, her premises, her assumptions, who would put her on the spot. But that will probably not happen. The candidate, after all, decides who gets an interview and who doesn’t. And there’s no reason to think Harris will submit to serious scrutiny anytime soon.”
* * * Trump (R): “The Republican Party is less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump” [Vox]. “In poll after poll, he’s hitting or exceeding the levels of support he received in 2020 from Latino and Hispanic voters. He’s primed to make inroads among Asian American voters, whose Democratic loyalty has gradually been declining over the last few election cycles. And the numbers he’s posting with Black voters suggest the largest racial realignment in an election since the signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964…. Why? Putting aside environmental factors and shifts in the American electorate that are happening independent of the candidates, there are a few theories to explain how Trump has uniquely weakened political polarization along the lines of race and ethnicity.1) Trump has successfully associated himself with a message of economic nostalgia, heightening nonwhite Americans’ memories of the pre-Covid economy in contrast to the period of inflation we’re now exiting. 2) Trump and his campaign have also zeroed in specifically on outreach and messaging to nonwhite men as part of their larger focus on appealing to male voters. 3) Trump and his party have taken advantage of a confluence of social factors, including messaging on immigration and cultural issues, to shore up support from conservative voters of color who have traditionally voted for Democrats or not voted at all.” • “Economic nostalgia” is brilliant framing (trans. “Lay back and enjoy it). However, some voters might wish to regard the Biden era as a temporary blip; it’s Make America Great Again, after all.
* * *
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Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| ★ Variants [3] CDC September 28 | ★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data September 25: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 23: | ★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★CDC September 9: | ★CDC September 9: |
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| Deaths | |
| ★CDC September 21: | ★CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Personal Income: “United States Personal Income” [Trading Economics]. “US personal income increased by 0.2% from the previous month to $24.015 trillion in August of 2024, following a 0.3% rise in the previous month and below market forecasts of a 0.4% rise.”
Inflation: “United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “The annual increase in the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, edged higher to 2.7% in August of 2024 from 2.6% in the previous month.” • Long ago baked in for the election, though.
Manufacturing: “Critical safety alert: Boeing 737 rudder malfunction linked to cold conditions, NTSB warns” [USA Today]. “According to the NTSB, a piece of the rudder control system on 737 Next-Generation and 737 Max aircraft, the two most recent generations of the manufacturer’s best-selling plane, can lose functionality in cold weather conditions. A United Airlines flight returning from Nassau, Bahamas, to Newark on Feb. 6 had its rudder pedals stuck in the neutral positions during the landing roll. The NTSB said the captain was able to control the plane using its nosewheel steering system. No injuries were reported to passengers or crew during that incident. Even so, the agency investigated and found issues with the plane’s rudder system…. The NTSB directed Boeing to determine and notify airlines of appropriate pilot responses if a similar incident occurs and to alert pilots ‘that the rudder control system can jam due to moisture that has accumulated inside the actuators and frozen.’ The agency has also recommended that the FAA ‘determine if actuators with incorrectly assembled bearings should be removed from airplanes, and if so, to direct U.S. operators to do so until replacements are available.’ The agency also said Thursday it accepted NTSB’s recommendation. ‘As a party to the investigation, the agency has been monitoring this situation closely,’ the FAA said in a statement. ‘Tomorrow, we will convene a corrective action review board based upon the NTSB’s interim recommendations and determine next steps.’” • Poor old Boeing. Now the NTSB is after them too!
Manfucturing: “Boeing, Machinists back at the negotiating table as strike enters third week” [Seattle Times]. “Friday’s negotiations will likely be punctuated by frustration over Boeing’s latest move. The company publicized the offer shortly after delivering it to the negotiating team, rather than presenting it to the union through discussions at the bargaining table. Union leadership said Monday that made members feel disrespected, and finding out about the details of the new offer through the media was like ‘a slap in the face.’ Boeing later said in a statement that ‘this strike is affecting our team and our communities, and we believe our employees should have the opportunity to vote on our offer. … We’ve reached out to the union to give them more time and offer logistical support once they decide to vote.’ The next day, the union’s negotiating committee told members they were heading back to the bargaining table. Boeing is eager to end the strike as it burns through cash and work in its factories remains halted.” • Well, they can’t be that eager, can they?
Manufacturing: “Boeing strike costs U.S. $1 billion of GDP in just two weeks as negotiations resume” [Fortune]. “The strike that has hobbled Boeing for two weeks is being felt not just at the company, but also across the entire country. As of Friday, the fallout from the strike accounts for a $1 billion reduction in U.S. GDP, according to estimates from Bjorn Markeson of economic analysis and modeling company IMPLAN. According to Markeson’s calculations, this loss totals $700 million in Washington State alone, almost half of which is accounted for by lost wages in the state…. The strike has cost Boeing workers and shareholders a combined $1.25 billion so far, according to estimates released by Anderson Economic Group, a different way of measuring the economic impact than gross domestic product. Boeing’s debt also sits at the precipice of being downgraded to junk, which would substantially raise borrowing costs for a company that is hemorrhaging cash.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 71 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 27 at 1:56:31 PM ET.
Gallery
Capricho (1):
Duendecitos, 1797-1798 pic.twitter.com/HXajruugQS
— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) September 27, 2024
Capricho (2):
Michael Basquiat… pic.twitter.com/xeVb2KUe4w
— El Club del Arte 🎨📷📚🖼🕍🎼 (@Arteymas_) September 27, 2024
“Autoworkers, Boeing machinists, cannabis drivers: Labor unions are mobilizing in new and old industries alike” [The Conversation]. “What do violinists, grocery store clerks, college dorm counselors, nurses, teachers, hotel housekeepers, dockworkers, TV writers, autoworkers, Amazon warehouse workers and Boeing workers have in common? In the past year or so, they’ve all gone on strike, tried to get co-workers to join a union, or threatened to walk off the job over an array of issues that include retirement plans, technology replacing workers and lagging wages as inflation increased. The array of Americans who are organizing unions extends to the tech, digital media and cannabis industries. Even climbing gym employees have formed a union. This is happening as U.S. workers in general are finding themselves in an increasingly precarious position. As a labor historian, I believe mobilization is the result of economic disruption caused by the relocation of jobs, the impact of new technologies on work and the erosion of income stability. It’s become very unlikely that today’s workers will have the same employer for decades, as my father and many men and women of his generation did.” • Woo hoo!
I am not yet feeling wired.
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