By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
Readers have been so happy with the mockingbirds I’m going to keep doing them. Now entering Day Three of Week Three!
Long-tailed Mockingbird, 3 km E Pacoa Beach, Guayas, Ecuador. “Song. Seen. Desert all green with herbs owing to ‘El Nino.’” A lot going on here!
In Case You Might Miss…
- Irrational exuberance among the Democrats.
- Introducing Walz.
- Boeing’s Starliner debacle.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than one hundred days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
Drops for Trump across the board, including a 2.5% drop nationally (almost outside the margin of error, ha ha), and a blue triangle on the mao for the first time.
* * * * * * Kamala (D): “”Bringing back the joy”: Kamala Harris’ rally blows away JD Vance’s weird appearance across town” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. I didn’t know Marcotte was still typing: “[T]he Harris/Walz rally felt like a rousing speech by Coach Eric Taylor of ‘Friday Night Lights’ combined with the front row at Coachella. The cheers were so loud that I regretted not bringing my earplugs. The mood was jubilant, even though folks had to wait hours in the heat and humidity to even get into the place. The campaign claimed over 12,000 people showed up, which is not an exaggeration. Even as Harris and Walz gave the final speeches of the evening, the line to get into the overflow room — just to watch the event on TV — went on for multiple city blocks.” Always hire a hall that’s too small; good advance work by the Harris team. More: “‘Thank you for bringing back the joy,’ Walz said, to a thunderous reception. A simple line, but it brought the house down because of the plain-spoken truth Walz has swiftly become famous for. ‘Joy’ was the word of the night. People in the stands practically vibrated with it. In the air was a visceral hope that this campaign would be the end of the long national nightmare that is Trump and the MAGA movement.” • “Our long national nightmare” is surely a reference to this Gerald Ford quotation, following Nixon’s Watergate defenestration. (Maybe Kamala could adapt this line from Ford’s speech: “I am acutely aware that you have not elected me as your
Presidentcandidate by your ballots, and so I ask you to confirm me as your President with your prayers.” I wonder if Marcotte thought of that…). Anyhow–Kamala (D): ” Democrats Lost Their Minds Over Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ New Midwestern Running Mate” [HuffPo]. • Indeed. But they would have lost their minds over Shapiro, too. After all, who doesn’t love an IDF volunteer?
Kamala (D): “Axelrod: A Lot Of ‘Irrational Exuberance’ Around Kamala Harris, ‘It Is Absolutely Trump’s Race To Lose’” [RealClearPolitics]. From a CNN transcript: “There’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like. Now people feel like there’s a chance.” • Investopedia, “Irrational Exuberance: Definition, Origin, Example“: “Irrational exuberance refers to investor enthusiasm that drives asset prices higher than those assets’ fundamentals justify. The term was popularized by former Fed chair Alan Greenspan in a 1996 speech, “The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society.” The speech was given near the beginning of the 1990s dot-com bubble, a textbook example of irrational exuberance.” • Flipping the textbook open to another page–
“The Irrational Analysis of David Axelrod” [MaShrChing, Daily Kos]. “Why would he be throwing a bucket of cold water on D voter enthusiasm?” • Proving Axelrod’s point….
* * * Walz:
Kamala (D): “A blank slate” [Morning Consult]. “Nearly 3 in 5 voters nationwide (57%) said they’d never heard of Walz…. That gives Walz, and campaign operatives on both sides of the aisle, plenty of room to try to move his numbers in the right or wrong direction. Walz and his party are trying to frame him as a so-called normie who has passed common-sense legislation with Democratic partners in the legislature, while Republicans have leaned into attacks branding him as a radical leftist that makes the top of the Democratic ticket the most extreme in history.” We saw the same process whereby a candidate is “introduced” with Vance. Now we are seeing it with Walz. Since everything is like high school, the process is at the very least a hazing ritual. But in Minnesota: “According to our surveys conducted over the past three months, a solid 55% of voters approve of Walz’s job performance in Minnesota, which is more educated and leans further left than neighboring upper Midwest states Michigan and Wisconsin. The good news is that some of the groups north of Walz’s overall approval rating — 18- to 34-year-olds, liberals, moderates, Black voters, Hispanic voters and Americans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 — are all groups that Biden had underperformed with this election cycle before he dropped out last month. They also all happen to be the types of voters that Harris has polled better among in recent weeks. The bad news is that the worst-performing groups for Walz all look like the worst-performing groups for Democrats in general: whites without a college degree, conservatives, Republicans and voters who backed Trump in 2020. Those groups of voters over in Pennsylvania, are also more likely to approve of Gov. Shapiro, the other VP finalist, especially Trump ‘20 voters and Republicans, at 29% and 30%, respectively. . Given a choice between sticking with what appears to be working for her personally or changing things up, she chose the former.” • Plenty of people challenge the notion that a “favorite son” as VP (here Shapiro in PA) has any impact at all. I challenge the notion that Shapiro would have helped in PA; I think the events in Butler have put the PA Republicans on a war footing, and they will do whatever it takes to win the state (including crawling over broken glass).
Kamala (D): “Gov. Tim Walz doesn’t own a single stock” [Axios]. “Walz doesn’t own a single stock, according to financial disclosures and confirmed by a spokesperson. Same goes for his wife Gwen, per tax filings. His disclosures, both from his final year in Congress and his time as Minnesota governor, also show no mutual funds, bonds, private equities, or other securities. No book deals or speaking fees or crypto or racehorse interests. Not even real estate. The couple sold their Mankato, Minnesota, home after moving into the governor’s mansion, for below the $315k asking price). Their only investment assets appear to be via state pensions, including teacher pensions. This lack of investment is highly unusual for elected officials. Particularly high-profile ones vying for federal office.” • Maybe Pelosi can give him some insider stock tips (i.e., Walz’s personal virtue in this regard is not relevant compared to the real issue: the systemic cesspit that is the Beltway, which is bipartisan). It’s Third World political thinking to imagine that “good people” in positions of authority will solve systemic corruption (“If men were angels…”).
Kamala (D): Counter-oppo:
Fun fact: when he was president, Donald Trump appointed then-Governor Tim Walz to his national Council of Governors.
It’s going to be pretty hard for Republicans to call this guy “extreme.” pic.twitter.com/H6fnQu1Q2z
— Sawyer Hackett (@SawyerHackett) August 7, 2024
(Given that the account is a Democrat strategist, the original. –Lambert the Careful.)
Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s China Connection Explained” [Newsweek]. “In 1989, Walz earned a B.S. in social science education from Chadron State College in his native Nebraska. According to the Lincoln Journal Star, Walz also took classes in East Asia Studies at the University of Houston in 1985. Following his graduation, the Minnesota governor and former Congressman spent approximately one year teaching high school in China as part of Harvard University’s WorldTeach program. Walz was among the first government-sanctioned groups of American educators to teach in China.” • Good, right? Unless there’s oppo in the backstory?
Kamala (D): “Republicans Resurface Tim Walz’ 1995 Mugshot as Attacks Heat Up” [Daily Beast]. • I’ll say again here what I said in Links: “If the DUI led to sobriety, which it seems to have done, then I don’t see an issue. A.A. says: ‘There but for the grace of God go I.’” (Of course, if Walz was running on a “Never touched a drop of liquor” platform, that would be different. Now, there are technical issues here: Presumably this came up in Holder’s vetting? And was considered and dismissed? If not, bad staffwork by the Harris campaign.
* * * Trump (R): “Arizona Republican becomes first fake elector to plead guilty for role in Trump scheme” [Politico]. “An Arizona Republican who falsely claimed to be a legitimate presidential elector for Donald Trump — part of a sweeping effort by Trump and his allies to subvert the 2020 election — has pleaded guilty for her role in the scheme. Lorraine Pellegrino, one of 11 Arizona Republicans who falsely posed as Trump’s electors that year, accepted a guilty plea to a single charge for filing a “false instrument” — the fraudulent Electoral College certificate. The state charge was one of several she faced for allegedly joining in a conspiracy to corrupt Arizona’s election results. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes charged the 11 fake electors, as well as several top Trump allies, in a broad indictment in April. Trump himself was not charged in the Arizona case, but he was identified by a state grand jury as an unindicted coconspirator. Trump was also charged federally and in Georgia with felonies arising from his fake elector scheme and other efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory. Pellegrino’s plea deal is the second victory in the Arizona case in as many days for Mayes, a Democrat. Another one of the 18 defendants, former Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis, began cooperating with prosecutors this week in exchange for a deal to dismiss the charges she faced. Ellis similarly cooperated with prosecutors last year in the Georgia case.” • I’ll say again: Of all the lawfare, the elector cases are the only cases with the potential to hole the Trump campaign below the waterline. Why? Because unlike the business records and classified documents cases, the elector cases affect civilians: dull normals who signed up because they believe the theory of the case that was put to them.
* * * MO: “Bush’s loss raises questions for progressives: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries” [The Hill]. “[Cori] Bush’s primary loss was also the latest victory for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the pro-Israel lobbying organization that has increasingly flexed its muscles in primaries over the last couple of years. AIPAC’s super PAC spent big to unseat her in the primary, reportedly throwing more than $8 million into the race. The group had also spent millions to elevate Westchester County Executive George Latimer in the race for Bowman’s seat in New York’s 16th Congressional District, fueling progressive outrage. The group’s opposition to Bush came in response to her vocal criticism of Israel’s war against Hamas, the U.S.-designated terrorist organization ruling Gaza. She was one of just a few House members who opposed a resolution that expressed support for Israel last year, and when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress last month, Bush called it ‘sickening that Congress gave him a standing ovation.’ As Bowman was unseated, Bush called AIPAC a ‘threat to Democracy’ and accused the group of working to ‘silence the voices of progress and justice.’” • Unfortunate. We need more Senators who slept out of their cars. Looks like Mearsheimer’s “Israel Lobby” thesis (PDF, worth a read) is correct. (I’d speculate that the “Israel Lobby” thesis could be integrated into Ferguson et alia’s “investment theory of party competition” with Israel being an especially large, albieit offshore, industry.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular.
[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveling off. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) An optimist would see a peak.
[8] (Cleveland) Slowing. Comment on the Cleveland Clinic:
Why is the Cleveland Clinic building a new facility for a professional basketball team? These hospitals are not ‘nonprofits’ they are ridiculously profitable monopolies with an endless cash gusher to point at whatever they want. https://t.co/1REM2LMLjd
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) July 29, 2024
Ka-ching.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time rasnge. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) Same deal. Those sh*theads.
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Shipping: “Shipping magnates are ploughing their big profits in recent years into new investments, but not necessarily on the water” [Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. “Many are buying up news outlets, real estate and even soccer clubs, the WSJ’s Costas Paris reports, in a sign of the flood of cash that has poured into the sector since the global Covid pandemic and recent disruptions at the Suez Canal. The earnings of the world’s top 10 container lines more than quadrupled in 2021 and 2022 to an average of $158 billion a year. Shipping owners often go on buying sprees when they are flush with cash, typically investing in modernizing their fleets. But a rush of orders raises the specter of a surplus of oceangoing capacity, prompting some shipowners to diversify their holdings.”
The Economy: “In the data that matters most, so far it’s a slowdown, not recession” [Axios Macro]. “The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee is the official arbiter of when economic expansions stop and recessions begin. The group waits until ‘sufficient data’ is available before making the call to avoid any backtracking. That means the official recession call won’t come until after it has already begun or — in the case of the pandemic recession — until it is already over. The committee puts the most weight on two indicators. The first is payrolls, which show the economy is still adding jobs, though at a slower clip. On average, 274,000 jobs per month were added in the second quarter of 2023. That cooled to 168,000 last quarter, a still-healthy rate of job gains. The NBER’s second major recession indicator is real personal income growth excluding transfers (that is, adjusted for inflation and excluding income from government programs like Social Security and unemployment benefits). That has been positive in six of the last eight months, notching a 0.4% rise in May and 0.1% in June. It has, however, decelerated from last year’s breakneck pace. It rose a whopping 0.8% in Q1 2023 and 0.2% in the second quarter of this year. Two other indicators emphasized by the committee show activity is still growing. Consumer spending is rising. Real spending increased 0.6% in the most recent quarter — above the 0.2% seen in the same period a year ago.”
The Bezzle: “The Real Wolf of Wall Street Sales Script” [The Follow Up]. “And at last, we have the secret weapon: ‘Fair enough?’ This is one of the most powerful words in selling. Chris Voss (hostage negotiator) has said ‘fair’ is the ‘single most powerful word in any negotiation.’ It worked in sales back then and still works in sales today.” • News you can use!
Manufacturing: “Boeing Starliner Update: NASA Considers Tapping SpaceX to Bring Astronauts Home” [Newsweek]. “NASA is considering partnering with SpaceX to bring its astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, back home due to ongoing concerns about Boeing’s Starliner capsule — despite Boeing’s assurance that the spacecraft is capable of the task. In a call with reporters Wednesday, Steve Stich, NASA’s commercial crew program manager, said that mission control has still not determined a return date for the crew and confirmed the space agency is exploring the use of SpaceX’s Crew-9 Dragon as a backup plan. ‘Our primary option is to return Butch and Sunny on Starliner. However, we have done the requisite planning to ensure we have other options open. We have been working with SpaceX to ensure they are ready to respond with Crew-9 as a contingency,’ said Stich.” • Oh.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 24 Exreme Fear (previous close: 20 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 54 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 7 at 12:56:04 PM ET.
News of the Wired
“Chemical ‘waves’ used to encode words as Morse code” [Chemistry World]. “The chemical waves were generated in traditional round bottom flasks with reactants mixed by a magnetic stirring plate. ‘When all of the reactants had been added, the chemical waves began,’ says Howlett. ‘This was monitored by manually taking regular samples and measuring the chemical concentrations by liquid chromatography. A plot of these chemical concentrations shows waves and these waves were assigned meaning, such as a letter.’ The scientists managed to communicate using recognisable formats such as Morse code and nucleic acid sequences. To encode a word in Morse code, they carried out a single, continuous reaction where oscillating waveforms were produced over multiple hours. ‘We initially found reaction conditions which produced two distinct wave types and ran a chemical reaction where we switched between these conditions with precise timing,’ explains Howlett. ‘Measuring the chemical concentrations produced a pattern of waves which could be translated by Morse code into a word.’ In a similar experiment, they simulated RNA-like instructions, assigning each waveform to a nucleobase. ‘This demonstrates that with access to a wide range of waveforms, you can encode much higher levels of information,’ says Howlett.” • Hmm. I wonder if something out there is already trying to send us a message using a similar approach. Mayhe the Orcas? “… – — .–. -.-.– -.-.– -.-.–”
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