By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Bird Song of the Day
California Thrasher, Mori Pt., San Mateo, California, United States. Short and sweet!
In Case You Might Miss…
- Democrat National Convention vignettes .
- Boeing 777X and 787 debacles.
- Covid, anosmia, and loss of executive function.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Democrats en Déshabillé
2024
Less than one hundred days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
There is no good news here for Trump. The deterioration in both Pennsylvania and Georgia is especially marked. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. So the “joy” is based on, well, vibes.
“Joe Biden, Trump Casualty” [The American Conservative]. “The Joe Biden who addressed the convention last night was already a ghost, one fated to haunt the White House until January 20. He’s an angry, impotent spirit. Heedless of his naked hypocrisy, he linked Trump to neo-Nazis in one breath and insisted in the next that he had been a president for all Americans, “demonizing no one.” On the contrary, he demonized Republicans relentlessly, not just last night but throughout his administration. “Democracy has prevailed, democracy has delivered, and now democracy must be preserved!” he shouted—after he, the democratically chosen nominee of the Democratic Party’s voters, handed the nomination over to a replacement who had never won so much as a single presidential primary. • Haunt and — presumably — run the executive branch?
* * * Democrat National Convention Vignettes:
Walz:
Tim Walz’s kids doing bunny ears behind him while he’s on national TV at the DNC is the most relatable, Minnesota content. pic.twitter.com/w0VDEehdeM
— Nate Morris 🥥🌴 (@_natemorris) August 20, 2024
“The Democrats’ Old Guard Passes The Torch At The DNC” [HuffPo]. “Of the 25 elected officials who were scheduled to speak, 13 were under 50 years old. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 34, brought the house down and seemingly leveled her career up with her speech. Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, 37, slammed ― literally ― the conservative blueprint called Project 2025 after bringing it out as a large printed book. Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear, 48, and a trio of young women delivered the party’s most important message, promising to protect abortion rights. Other young leaders, including Whitmer, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, were seemingly held in reserve, with the speaking schedule for the next three nights not yet fully revealed. The youth push also helps the party sell the idea of Harris as a fresh start, a way to move past the chaotic politics of eras defined by former President Donald Trump and the coronavirus pandemic.” • As if the coronavirus pandemic didn’t happen mostly under Biden, with results that we know. (Man-oh-man, do I loathe the phrase “young leader.” It’s as if every leader in very field is following… Now what’s the English word I’m looking for…. Principle, that’s it. It also presuppposes an institutional binary between young and old, and implies a sort of nurtuing process where the young are brought along, presumably by mentors. Wrong and unrealistic respectively.)
“At Democratic Convention, UAW head threatens strike against Stellantis over delayed plant reopening” [ABC News]. ” A high-profile spat between the United Auto Workers and Stellantis over reopening an Illinois factory complex has made its way into the race for U.S. president and could elicit a strike against the automaker. In a speech at the Democratic National Convention Monday night, union President Shawn Fain accused the company of reneging on promises to restart a now-closed assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois, just over an hour northwest of Chicago…. After the contracts were approved, Biden visited Belvidere with Fain to celebrate the plant reopening…. Fain, wearing a red T-shirt that said ‘Trump is a scab. Vote Harris,’ told the convention that the union won strong contracts and the plant reopening with the support of Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden.” • Well, he did get a T-shirt….
Realignment and Legitimacy
“A Rancher Who Leads a Paramilitary-Style Group Sues Biden Over Border Policies” [Texas Observer]. Just some detail: “The lead plaintiff is Michael Vickers, a veterinarian who also owns a 1,000-acre ranch in Brooks County. Brooks County, which does not border Mexico, has a population of 7,000 and a long history of recorded deaths of migrants, who die in remote areas while trying to bypass its Border Patrol checkpoint. For nearly two decades, Vickers has led a paramilitary-style, civilian patrol group called the Texas Border Volunteers. Vickers and his wife, Linda, were once affiliated with the Minutemen, an organization that former President George W. Bush called a ‘vigilante’ group. In the suit, Vickers alleges that undocumented immigrants have damaged his property as a result of Biden’s policies. He has incurred more than $50,000 in fence and gate damages since 2021 and the value of his property has decreased, according to the lawsuit. At times, Vickers and other Texas Border Volunteers have offered emergency help or assisted with body recoveries. But the group sees its main mission as finding and detaining migrants, and has a history of allegations against it, including members tying migrants’ hands together with shoelaces or zip ties and taking their belongings, and members pulling weapons on migrants, as the Observer reported in 2014. The group was incorporated in Texas in 2006, state business filings show, and has been tax exempt since 2008, according to Internal Revenue Service records.”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Maskstravaganza
“Mask bans disenfranchise millions of Americans with disabilities” [STAT]. “If masks are banned where I live, I will have to make the choice between endangering my transplant and my health every time I leave the house, or to remain on permanent lockdown in my home. As disability oracle and activist Alice Wong reminds us, mask bans are an extension of ‘ugly laws,’ historical laws and ordinances that prevented disabled people from being in public. We deserve to be seen and to be included in public life. Mask bans are a threat not just to disabled people, but to all of us. It’s never too late to start masking again—to protect not just your health and the health of people around you, but also to protect our fundamental human rights.” • As well as millions of dull normals who just don’t want to be infected because they were breathing.
Mask bans (1):
NEW: Zero tolerance at @UofCalifornia for encampments, blocking pathways, masking to shield identities. President Drake directs chancellors to strictly enforce campus rules after huge protests over the Israel-Hamas war this past spring. https://t.co/hFFRVL4ek5
— Teresa Watanabe (@TeresaWatanabe) August 19, 2024
Mask bans (2):
Nassau County, NY just passed a mask ban and now residents say they are going to take pictures of anyone wearing a mask and send them to police.
This is why we need to stop any kind of mask ban legislation. They empower vigilantes to harass and surveil people wearing masks. pic.twitter.com/80NJgWndpJ
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) August 20, 2024
From a Letter to the Editor in Newsday.) On mask bans, I wrote: “The thought occurs, then, that many normal citizens want mask bans not to assist law enforcement, but for acts of vigilantism and private retribution.” This is not vigilantism, but if Perlmutter had thought to introduce the concept of citizens arrests, it would be.
Vaccines: Covid
“COVID vaccine efficacy against severe illness just under 50%, per early estimates from 2023” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Two European observational studies estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the COVID-19 XBB.1.5 vaccine approved in fall 2023 against hospitalization, the first one finding 49% overall VE in adults, and one showing good protection—but uneven uptake—among pregnant women.” • For XBB.1.5, not the currently dominant KP* variants.
Transmission: Covid
“‘A much more infectious’ COVID variant fueling California’s relentless surge” [Los Angeles Times]. “‘It’s so surprising to me that it hasn’t gone down yet,’ said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious diseases specialist at UC San Francisco. ‘It’s a little bit more of a prolonged season for California.’” Ah, UCSF. Maybe we should ask Bob Wachter. More: “‘It’s this confluence of a much more infectious variant on top of folks’ overall immunity having waned — either from natural or vaccine-induced immunity,’ [Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California] said. ‘It’s just kind of come [as] a perfect storm.’” With non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) only being considered far too late, as usual. More: “An open question is whether COVID will continue to rise as kids go back to school. Doctors are urging people to stay home if they’re sick and asking parents to keep their ill kids from attending school, to limit spread of disease.” NPIs erased again! Funny thing, Kamala’s from California. So is Pelosi. And yet they never mention Covid at all.
Sequelae: Covid
“Patients recovering from COVID-19 who presented with anosmia during their acute episode have behavioral, functional, and structural brain alterations” [Scientific Reports]. N = 73. From the Abstract: “Here, we report findings from a sample of patients consisting of 73 adults with a mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection without signs of respiratory failure and 27 with infections attributed to other agents and no history of COVID-19. The participants underwent cognitive screening, a decision-making task, and MRI evaluations. We assessed for the presence of anosmia and the requirement for hospitalization. Groups did not differ in age or cognitive performance. Patients who presented with anosmia exhibited more impulsive alternative changes after a shift in probabilities (r = − 0.26, p = 0.001), while patients who required hospitalization showed more perseverative choices (r = 0.25, p = 0.003). Anosmia correlated with brain measures, including , thinning of cortical thickness in parietal regions, and loss of white matter integrity. Hence, anosmia could be a factor to be considered when identifying at-risk populations for follow-up.”
Morbidity and Mortality
“Deaths Are Up Post-Covid, and So Are Funeral Stocks: Prognosis” [Bloomberg]. “The number of officially reported Covid fatalities (7.1 million worldwide) doesn’t fully explain the trend in excess deaths. (Neither do Covid vaccines, since body bags were piling up months before the shots were released, and multiple studies show the immunizations protect against severe illness and death). There’s no silver lining to the tragic loss of life. But if one group sees an upside, it’s those providing funerals, cremations, and burials. Publicly traded companies handling funerals and related services have handed investors an average 79% return since Jan. 1, 2020 — outpacing the 60% gain in the MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest measures of the global equity market. The US highlights the morbid picture. In the two decades before the pandemic, the number of deaths had been climbing at an average clip of almost 1% a year — reflecting population growth and aging, and the devastating opioid epidemic — for a crude rate in 2019 of 869.7 deaths for every 100,000 Americans. Covid catapulted the rate well beyond 1,000 in 2020 and 2021 before the rate dropped back to just over 984 in 2022. Last year, there were 927.4 deaths per 100,000 people in the US — almost 12% above the 20-year average — for nearly 3.1 million deaths all up. The coronavirus directly and indirectly contributed to many of them. For instance, a jump in drug overdoses and alcohol use–related diseases during the pandemic likely added to fatalities from unintentional injuries and chronic liver disease in 2023, according to a study this month. Covid also led to more cardiometabolic disease, and age-adjusted mortality rates for diabetes, heart disease, and stroke were above pre-pandemic levels.” • Go long morticians. Surprised, actually, that Silicon Valley hasn’t tried to “disrupt” this business.
Lambert here: Worth noting that national Emergency Room admissions are as high as they were in the first wave, in 2020.
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. First showing of the new variant from China, XDV.1 (though it didn’t appear in traveler’s data).
[4] (ER) Worth noting Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Going down. Doesn’t need to be a permanent thing, of course. (The New York city area has form; in 2020, as the home of two international airports (JFK and EWR) it was an important entry point for the virus into the country (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, as the rich sought to escape, and then around the country through air travel.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.
[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.
[8] (Cleveland) Jumping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) The new variant in China, XDV.1, is not showing up here.
[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Tech: “AI initiatives would get $40M annually in draft California journalism bill agreements” [Politico]. “Artificial intelligence initiatives would receive tens of millions of dollars in a draft settlement on a closely watched state legislative effort to make large platforms like Google and Meta fund California newsrooms. The draft proposal, dated Saturday afternoon, would see California form a public-private partnership with Google and news publishers to fund in-state newsrooms and AI over five years. The partnership would provide over $300 million across five years, including at least $40 million annually for an unspecified ‘AI Innovation Accelerator’ program managed by a ‘yet-to-be finalized’ nonprofit…. A summary of the draft proposal says it aims to ‘strengthen democracy and the future of work in an Artificial Intelligence future’ — a remarkable shift from the original purpose of Assemblymember Buffy Wicks’ bill, which aimed to make platforms share advertising profits from news-link sharing back to California newsrooms.” • Ah, Buffy Wicks.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Finds Cracks in Structure of 777X Test Jets” [Wall Street Journal]. “Shares of Boeing fell about 5% Tuesday after the plane maker found cracks in the structure of its 777X jetliner in initial test flights, the latest setback for the long-delayed airplane. The company said it would ground its four-plane test fleet while it replaces the faulty component and sorts out what went wrong. Boeing has orders for about 500 of the new aircraft that it plans to start delivering in 2025. It is unclear what impact the issue could have on the plane’s launch date. The 777X, designed for airlines wanting to connect the globe’s major cities and to carry some 400 passengers more, is already years behind. Boeing unveiled the plane in 2013 and said it would start delivering the model in 2020. …. The company is also facing scrutiny of another of its jets, the 787 Dreamliner. The Federal Aviation Administration said it would require inspections of Dreamliners after an incident with a cockpit seat led to a LatAm flight plunging midflight in March.” • That new CEO sure must have his hands full.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 50 Neutral (previous close: 44 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 27 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Aug 21 at 1:10:16 PM ET.
Gallery
Topical:
As Far back as his Grandfather, 1799
Get more Goya 🍒 https://t.co/tjHb5y4Eji pic.twitter.com/NkXC8PXo0t— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) August 19, 2024
“Why People Procrastinate, and How to Overcome It” [Scientific American]. “Putting it all together, our research sheds light on the processes that lead to procrastination. When faced with a deadline, people seem to ask themselves, “Do I want to do this now?” That leads them to weigh the pros and cons involved—and their biases then come into play. Although additional rigorous testing is required, the training procedure used in our last study shows promise as an avenue to assist people who struggle with procrastination. Cognitive training based on this approach—for example, through an app—could help people who struggle with delaying tasks. But there are more immediate implications of our work as well. Our research indicates that valence weighting has the biggest impact among people who lack the motivation and cognitive resources to pause and deliberate beyond their initial quick appraisals on whether or not to tackle a task. In other words, just pushing yourself to think a little bit more before acting may help you generate more positive reasons to get started and to ensure you don’t put off to tomorrow what you might best tackle today.” • I don’t think rumination helps…
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