ECONOMY

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/20/2024 | naked capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Tulare Ave., Contra Costa, California, United States. “In magnolia tree at approx. 8 feet off the ground, directly above microphone.” Barking dog, but energetic bird!

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. New Covid data, with wastewater increase.
  2. Mangione hit with Federal charges, death penalty possible.
  3. Biden wasn’t been governing the country, an extra-constitutional entity was.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Biden Administration

“How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge” [Wall Street Journal]. It took me awhile to get past the paywall. As of the 2020 campaign: “Biden, now 82, has long operated with . The protective culture inside the White House was intensified because Biden started his presidency at the height of the Covid pandemic. His staff took great care to prevent him from catching the virus by limiting in-person interactions with him. But the shell constructed for the pandemic was never fully taken down, and his advanced age hardened it. The structure was also designed to prevent Biden, an undisciplined public speaker throughout his half-century political career, from making gaffes or missteps that could damage his image, create political headaches or upset the world order. The system put Biden at an unusual remove from cabinet secretaries, the chairs of congressional committees and other high-ranking officials. It also insulated him from the scrutiny of the American public.” And: “Interactions between Biden and many of his cabinet members were relatively infrequent and often tightly scripted. At least one cabinet member stopped requesting calls with the president, because it was clear that such requests wouldn’t be welcome, a former senior cabinet aide said.” And: “Former administration officials said it often didn’t seem like Biden had his finger on the pulse.” • “Circle” is an interesting word. Right after Biden slipped a cog in debate, I chose that word:

I’ve been trying to think of a word for this extra-constitutional entity, this small group that would play — or perhaps is already playing the same role in the Biden Presidency that the group around Edith Wilson played in Wilsons. The Axios URL shows the original headline was something like biden-debate-replace-advisers, but the editors jacked it up to read “Biden oligarchy.” But that’s wrong; oligarchy is an entire political system. (“Biden oligarchs” might have been OK, but to me, an oligarch is a member of the only small group that really matters: The squillioniares, and although Biden et al. may service the squillioniares, they are not, themselves, squillionaires.) I thought of cabal, milieu, gang, clique, crew, faction, team, troop, club, coterie, posse, and finally settled on the term “circle,” since a circle has a center (Biden), connotes repetitiveness and stability, and has allied terms “social circle” and “inner circle.”

So it’s clear that the United States has been governed by an extra-constitutional entity (Biden’s “circle”) for quite some time, possibly since Biden’s inaugural. Yikes! (“Presidenting is hard work” —George W. Bush.)

Democrats en déshabillé

I keep getting ads like this from Kamala:

It’s like she thinks she’s still running. Or is this the best the DNC can do on messaging right now?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Luigi Mangione Charged With The Stalking And Murder Of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson And Use Of A Silencer In A Crime Of Violence” (press release) [United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York]. But not terrorism, interestingly. “FBI Assistant Director James E. Dennehy said: “Luigi Mangione allegedly conducted the carefully premeditated and targeted execution of Brian Thompson to incite national debates. This alleged plot demonstrates a cavalier attitude towards humanity – deeming murder an appropriate recourse to satiate personal grievances. Through continued close partnership with the NYPD, the FBI maintains our steadfast commitment to fervently pursue any individual who promotes a personal agenda through violence.” • As opposed to a corporate agenda?

“Federal murder charge against Mangione could mean death penalty in CEO killing” [NPR]. “The federal charges against him include: one count of using a firearm to commit murder, which carries a maximum sentence of death or life in prison; one count of interstate stalking resulting in death; and one count of stalking through use of interstate facilities resulting in death (each carrying a maximum sentence of life in prison); and one count of discharging a firearm equipped with a silencer to commit a violent crime (which carries a sentence of 30 years to life in prison.”

“A whirlwind day for Luigi Mangione ends with new charges, revelations from a notebook and transfer to a federal prison” [CNN]. “The 26-year-old murder suspect began his day at a jail in Huntingdon, Pennsylvania, his home for the last 10 days, and ended it in a notorious federal prison in New York…. Mangione has been indicted on 11 charges in New York, including first-degree murder as an act of terrorism. He has not yet pleaded to the charges. He also faces charges in Pennsylvania in connection to the 3D-printed firearm and false ID allegedly in his possession when he was arrested. Blair County District Attorney Peter Weeks said he would not push to have those charges heard ahead of Mangione’s much more serious charges in New York. And a federal complaint against him was unsealed midday Thursday adding four new charges and providing new details on a notebook authorities say was in his possession.” • Mangione’s manifesto mentions the notebook (“The spiral notebook, if present, has some straggling notes and To Do lists that illuminate the gist of it”). Now here it is. Why wasn’t it in the Central Park backpack with the monopoly money? And all the other paraphernalia, if it comes to that.

“Read the Luigi Mangione federal criminal complaint” [CBS]. From the Notebook as excerpted in the complaint:

I don’t suppose we’ll be seeing the complete notebook anytime soon….

“Meet the Legal Insider Defending Luigi Mangione” [Wall Street Journal]. “Just a few years ago, Karen Friedman Agnifilo managed the Manhattan district attorney’s office and its fleet of more than 500 attorneys…. While Friedman Agnifilo has minimal courtroom experience as a criminal-defense attorney, her personal and professional interest in mental health, empathetic approach to clients and intimate knowledge of her former office will be key, colleagues said. ‘She’ll be able to predict what the prosecutors will do before they do it,’ said lawyer Danya Perry, who has worked with her in private practice… Her husband, the defense lawyer Marc Agnifilo, is expected to play a supporting role in the case. He is also representing Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs [(!!!)] at his federal sex-trafficking trial this spring.

“Luigi Mangione canonized as a ‘saint’ by crazed online fans after death penalty bombshell” [Daily Mail]. “Many online are claiming Mangione is facing worse punishment that hardened criminals and school shooters, speculating that the government wants to make an example out of him and prevent some sort of revolt against corporate America. One X post read: ‘They wanna give Luigi Mangione the death penalty. That’s the only reason they making him face federal charges. ‘They literally wanna kill him for daring to threaten capitalism and corporate greed. They don’t even do this to school shooters.’ Another X user added: ‘Very few school shooters have gotten the death penalty. Yet the U.S. is trying to charge Luigi Mangione so he gets the death penalty for killing one man. You can kill dozens of kids and get a lesser sentence because their lives don’t matter as much as a CEO’s. That’s America.’ Some are pointing out that the government’s handling of Mangione, which included a perp walk straight out of a Hollywood film, is only increasing the public’s fixation on him. One X user said: ‘luigi stepping out with a fresh cut/shave, possible death penalty charges, and an nypd photoshoot is the craziest thing in the world. are they actively trying to make him a martyr? whether you’re for or against him, they’re making it SO easy for everyone to lionize him.’” • The perp walk:

Of course Mayor Adams (center left, ha ha) has to get into the act…

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 16 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 14

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data December 19: National [6] CDC December 19:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 16: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 14:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC December 2: Variants[10] CDC December 2::

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States PCE Price Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “Annual PCE inflation in the US accelerated for a second month to 2.4% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, but below expectations of 2.5%.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing charts ‘aggressive’ 737 Max production ramp-up in 2025” [The Air Current]. “Boeing’s supply chain wants the plane maker to be boring in 2025. Boeing has other ideas… Now, the company is progressing with a steep production acceleration on its single-aisle 737 Max that will test its younger workforce, fragile supply base and its chief regulator in the year to come. Currently, Boeing aims to have its production lines building 737 Max jets fully transitioned to a rate of 38 per month in May 2025, according to multiple people familiar with Boeing’s planning inside the company and the supply chain. While Boeing said it is approaching its restart and ramp up “methodically”, one senior official at a major Boeing supplier told The Air Current that the plane maker is at risk of repeating past mistakes — accelerating its factory tempo too quickly and pushing the deliveries from its supply chain beyond what the suppliers and their production lines can accommodate. “That is incredibly aggressive, probably unrealistic,” said the supplier official. Underscoring the fragility of the trust between Boeing and its massive network of suppliers, the official said: “All I want is a year where they’ll do what they say they’ll do,” noting that the company’s production guidance for the supply chain has repeatedly failed to materialize since even before the 737 Max was grounded for 20 months starting in March 2019.” • Well, Ortberg is only betting the company. So what’s the issue?

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 28 Neutral (previous close: 22 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 49 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 20 at 1:31:53 PM ET.

The 420

“Cannabis pollen dispersal across the United States” [Nature]. “For the recently legalized US hemp industry (Cannabis sativa), cross-pollination between neighboring fields has become a significant challenge, leading to contaminated seeds, reduced oil yields, and in some cases, mandated crop destruction…. Our findings reveal that pollen deposition rates escalate from summer to autumn due to the reduction in convective activity during daytime and the increase in wind shear at night as the season progresses. We find diurnal variations in pollen dispersion: nighttime conditions favor deposition in proximity to the source, while daytime conditions facilitate broader dispersal albeit with reduced deposition rates. These shifting weather patterns give rise to specific regions of CONUS more vulnerable to hemp cross-pollination.”

Zeitgeist Watch

“Polyamory doesn’t Liberate; Monogamy doesn’t Protect” [Carsonogenic]. “The classic poly delusion, is to think that via poly, you can get all of your needs met. Polyamory literature says you can’t expect one person to fulfill all of your emotional needs. This is true. The shadow implication of this statement is that you can expect a handful of people to fulfill all of your emotional needs. This is not true. Other people do not exist to fill our emotional voids. To quote Bo Burnham ‘If you want love, the love has gotta come from you…...” So and but: “The major monogamy delusion is obvious. It is simple: the idea that you possess your partner, or that you even can – the idea that by irrevocably binding yourself to someone, you can avoid any possibility of abandonment or heartbreak.” • Kids these days. San Francisco-based kids…..

News of the Wired

I am not feeling wired today.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From:

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.













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