By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, South Shore of Pueblo Reservoir, Pueblo, Colorado, United States. Starts slowly, but becomes quite virtuosic.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Trump: Time’s “Person of the Year.”
- Why Ernst changed her mind on Hegseth; some speculation.
- Thumbs down on UCLA’s AI-designed textbook cover.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Well, who else?
Donald Trump is TIME’s Person of the Year https://t.co/IjP5W2otV5 pic.twitter.com/CVHX9o0DB3
— TIME (@TIME) December 12, 2024
Trump to Time cover artist: ‘Make sure my hands are big!”
“Donald Trump 2024 TIME Person of the Year” [Time]. “Trump has a ready explanation for his improbable resurrection. He even has a name for its climactic final act. “I called it 72 Days of Fury,” he says as the interview gets under way. “We hit the nerve of the country. The country was angry.” It wasn’t just the MAGA faithful. Trump harnessed deep national discontent about the economy, immigration, and cultural issues. His grievances resonated with suburban moms and retirees, Latino and Black men, young voters and tech edgelords. While Democrats estimated that most of the country wanted a President who would uphold the norms of liberal democracy, Trump saw a nation ready to smash them, tapping into a growing sense that the system was rigged.” • Or, to put matters more concisely: “These parasites had it coming.” That is, Trump may be surfing a more powerful wave than he, or anyone else, knows. It woud be a dark historical jest if Trump turned out to be this century’s Kerensky.
* * * “Pete Hegseth Will Be Confirmed” [Mark Judge, Splice Today]. “Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who was reluctant to support Hegseth, emerged from a meeting recently saying Hegseth should get a chance to make his case at a public confirmation hearing. ‘We’re having really good discussions, and we discussed several items that were really important to me,’ Ernst said. This is remarkable coming from Ernst, someone considered a leader in the fight against sexual assault in the military. Hegseth was accused of sexually assaulting a woman in 2017…. So what changed? Joni Ernst is a survivor of sexual assault. Why did her opinion shift so abruptly? I don’t know the answer to that question, but I’m willing to make a guess. I think that in 2017 Hegseth was extorted by DNC goons who set him up. I think, now freed from any non-disclosure agreement, Hegseth has been able to talk about the extortion. I think that’s what the FBI and senators know and what turned the tide.” • Big if true. In the author’s view, he was set up in similar fashion during the Kavavanaugh hearings. And see Water Cooler back in November: “Democrats are enlisting high-powered lawyers, while opposition researchers at the Democratic National Committee are compiling dossiers of incoming federal officials.” And oppo the Hegseth stories (true or not) certainly were.
* * * “Billion dollar squirrel: Trump effect fuels crypto’s ‘memecoin’ boom” [Financial Times]. “Cryptocurrencies representing a euthanised grey squirrel, a Thai pygmy hippopotamus and a cartoon dog have exploded in value since last month’s US presidential election, as Donald Trump’s victory triggers a surge in speculation in so-called memecoins. The market for tokens representing online viral moments has expanded rapidly since early November as traders bet that Trump’s administration will usher in more crypto-friendly attitudes and regulation in Washington. There are millions of memecoins, which can easily be set up using online memecoin generators. They have no business model, cash flow or fundamental value, and do not give their owners a share of any physical asset. Instead, these highly volatile tokens rely on their popularity among traders to generate liquidity. ‘They have no value, they never will have value,’ Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of the Cardano blockchain, said about memecoins recently. ‘There’s no utility behind them, nobody wants them — when they lose their lustre they go to zero.’” • Look, the Thai pygmy hippopotamus (“Moodeng”) called election 2024. If that’s not “value, I don’t know what is.
2024 Post Mortem
Democrats en déshabillé
“Democrats can work with DOGE. I know exactly where to start.” [Ro Khanna, MSNBC]. ” I look forward to working with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to reduce waste and fraud at the Pentagon, while strongly opposing any cuts to programs like Social Security, Medicare, the Department of Veterans Affairs or the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. There are several areas of waste and abuse that I hope DOGE will address.” • And the CIA Black Budget. Note, however: “DOGE co-chair Elon Musk.” Musk is not the co-chair of anything, because DOGE is not an officially constituted entity of any kind (“Hey kids! Let’s put on a show!” doesn’t meet that criterion). And when (if?) it becomes one, I would bet it will have to conform to the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), just like HICPAC. From GAO:
Federal advisory committees are created by Congress, Presidents, and executive branch agencies to gain expertise
and policy advice from individuals outside the federal government. Establishing an advisory committee may also allow the federal government to provide a forum where potentially controversial topics may be discussed by experts outside the political arena and reduce the workload of executive branch employees and Congress.
That sure sounds like DOGE’s use case to me. Elon can opine and collect suggestions on the Twitter all he wants, but at some point DOGE needs to, as it were, engage the clutch and begin transmission to the government; FACA is the obvious API for that. Otherwise, Elon is just jawboning, and I wouldn’t give much for his chances of success, even if he does manage to induce the occassional DOGEpile on some hapless civil servant.
“Save a Reagan Initiative From Musk and Ramaswamy” [Wall Street Journal]. The deck: “The Department of Government Efficiency may seek to slash the National Endowment for Democracy’s funding.” • What’s wrong with slashing funding for the spooks?
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
“An Interview with Zhou Liang, the Creator of Zimi Mask” [CovidAware]. LIANG: “I started designing and producing masks in 2013. Zimi is my third entrepreneurial project… Zimi mask = frame + filter element. The frame is made of plastic, does not contain metal, and is available in a variety of sizes. The frame has elastic properties and can be reused until it breaks or cracks. This time is not fixed. For example, if you ask me, how long can your phone case last? The filter element is mainly composed of filter material and sealing material. The filter material is a polypropylene-based fiber material with static charge. It has multiple layers, and static electricity is constantly consumed during use. The sealing material is a new composite material with a 2+1 structure. There is a layer of airtight material in the middle, so it is comfortable and does not allow air to penetrate. The filter element can be replaced after use….. As of December 2024, Zimi masks have 4 frames, and the frames for XS and XL sizes are completed within a month….” • Interesting to listen to a working engineer!
Sequelae: Covid
“How Covid Can Change Your Gut” [New York Times]. “We don’t have good estimates for what percentage of people with Covid go on to develop persistent gastrointestinal symptoms, but some limited and small studies suggest they can be between 16 and 40 percent…. One theory about how the coronavirus might cause these symptoms is that it may ramp up inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract. Covid can also disrupt the gut microbiome, Dr. King said, resulting in fewer of the ‘good’ microbes that tamp down inflammation and more of the ‘bad’ ones that cause inflammation. Over time, inflammation can damage the lining of the intestine, making it more permeable or ‘leaky,’ Dr. Chey said. That leakiness may allow molecules from foods to escape from the gut, causing immune cells to mount an allergy-like response to foods. Covid-induced inflammation may also ‘chew away’ at the nerves that control contractions and pain signals in the gut, said Dr. Braden Kuo, a neurogastroenterologist at Massachusetts General Hospital. This might cause the nerves to send pain signals to the brain, even when digestion is working normally, he said. Anxiety and depression often worsen gut symptoms, too.” • If the Times is covering this, it must be bad…
Lambert: CDC’s wastewater page loaded. No Thanksgiving surge that I can see.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC December 2 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC December 7 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 30 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| New York[5] New York State, data December 10: | National [6] CDC December 5: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens December 9: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 23: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC November 19: | Variants[10] CDC November 4: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Leveled out.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “Inside Boeing’s struggle to make its best-selling plane again” [Reuters]. “Boeing’s cautious approach, following criticism that the planemaker for years rushed production, has garnered praise from regulators and some airline CEOs. But it also has some smaller suppliers who cut jobs or operating hours during the strike hesitating to staff-up again, creating further uncertainty in an already fragile supply chain, according to three suppliers, one analyst and an industry source…. At the factory, daily tasks are paired with exacting efforts to clean up and take steps to avoid error, with note-taking FAA officials carrying clipboards and donning reflective vests a regular sight, they said…. [FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker] told Reuters that Boeing has a long journey to achieve its targeted safety culture. ‘, as you would expect, but they’re frank about the fact that they’ve got a long way to go,’ he said….. Seattle-area supplier Rosemary Brester hoped she and her husband would be able to get their metal aircraft components processed more quickly following the end of the strike, but delays persist… ‘Until I see some real stability, I’m not going to hire anybody,’ Brester said.” • The plant wasn’t clean? The mind reels. When I bought printing, I always made sure to visit the candidates. Beer bottles under the tables were a strong no. And the press should always be running (“time is money”). If “cleaner” means what I think it means, it sounds like if Boeing were a printer, I would have gone elsewhere. And not a monopoly player, of course. Can any readers confirm?
Manufacturing: “A Closer Look at Boeing’s Options Market Dynamics” [Benzinga]. “High-rolling investors have positioned themselves bullish on Boeing, and it’s important for retail traders to take note. This activity came to our attention today through Benzinga’s tracking of publicly available options data. The identities of these investors are uncertain, but such a significant move in BA often signals that someone has privileged information. Today, Benzinga’s options scanner spotted 10 options trades for Boeing. This is not a typical pattern. The sentiment among these major traders is split, with 60% bullish and 40% bearish. Among all the options we identified, there was one put, amounting to $227,500, and 9 calls, totaling $410,750.” • I don’t play the ponies, but if you do…
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s India exports remain high, climbing over $1.25 billion” [BusinessLine]. “Global growth of civil aviation, along with high domestic demand, has led aerospace major Boeing to remain the largest exporter of aircraft parts and software from India. Speaking exclusively to businessline, Boeing India and South Asia President Salil Gupte cited that the aerospace major’s annual sourcing from India has grown significantly over the past decade, rising from $250 million to over $1.25 billion annually. ‘This marks a substantial increase, driven by the expansion of the supplier network and advancements in manufacturing capabilities,’ Gupte told businessline. “It is also fair to say that this growth is truly remarkable considering that the production of the aeroplanes themselves on the civil side has been much lower than before the pandemic.’”
Manufacturing: “Opinion: Why Embraer Might Be Ready To Take On Airbus And Boeing” [Aviation Week]. “Much focus has been on China’s Comac. Conventional wisdom holds that China’s rapid advances in military propulsion and space eventually will extend to commercial aviation…. I’m not so sure. In the near term, Comac does not need to be a global player for its new C919 narrowbody to succeed. China’s domestic market is big enough to soak up most of Comac’s limited production capacity. Developing a truly competitive international product will require certification in the West and the creation of a global maintenance and support network, no small tasks. The ongoing decoupling of the Chinese and Western supply chains poses yet another challenge. The company to keep an eye on in 2025 is Embraer, the feisty Brazilian manufacturer that was almost bought by Boeing and then jilted at the altar. With excellent engineers and visionary leaders, Embraer has built world-class airplanes for decades while protecting the intellectual property of its suppliers. It is certainly capable of upgauging to a bigger airplane that could challenge the duopoly. Aviation Week has learned that multiple large airlines in the U.S. and Europe have told Embraer they will collectively order hundreds of airplanes if a new program is launched.” Hoo boy. But: “A key question, of course, is whether Embraer can play in the big leagues. It has 1/20th the revenue of Boeing and thus would need a financial partner with billions of dollars to develop a new product. Talk has focused on investors from the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia. Another challenge is that Embraer’s business model relies heavily on outsourcing major components.”
Manufacturing: “GM to retreat from robotaxi operations once championed by CEO Mary Barra” [Business Standard]. “With the decision to fold Cruise into the parent company, GM is giving up on hopes of transforming itself into a multi-platform technology company that targeted bringing in $50 billion in revenue from robotaxi fares and subscriptions by 2030. The carmaker had hoped to double its revenue by 2030 on the twin pillars of autonomy and electric vehicles. That goal, which GM has called “aspirational,” also now looks remote without Cruise as a new business and after GM scaled-back its EV production goals.” • Ah, “aspirational.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 51 Neutral (previous close: 48 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 56 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Dec 11 at 1:27:47 PM ET.
Christmas Pre-Game Festivities
“Demonic Christmas Display at State House Destroyed” [NH Journal]. “Forget St. Nick; someone in Concord may end up on Satan’s naughty list after The Satanic Temple’s Baphomet statue was destroyed Monday night in an act of yuletide mayhem. Concord Deputy Police Chief John Thomas told NHJournal that while the investigation into the vandalism is active and ongoing, he can rule out at least one possible suspect. ‘Santa wouldn’t do this,’ Thomas said. ‘Santa loves everybody.’ The statue of the hooded demon was found broken in half around 7 p.m. Monday night, a few hours after the marble slab showing The Satanic Temple’s seven principles was cracked. State Rep. Ellen Read (D-Newmarket), who helped organize The Satanic Temple’s display, was spotted gathering up the broken shards of the goat-headed figure Tuesday morning after getting a call about the destruction. She’s not sure if members of The Satanic Temple plan to put their monster mannequin back together.”
Dry, very dry:
As a veteran, which company should I start?
A podcast called “WARFIGHTER MINDSET” where some former water purification specialist interviews other vetbros about “the warrior lifestyle” while hawking their own line of “tactical” beard oil
Yet another veteran-owned coffee company…
— Warlizard (@War_Lizard) December 9, 2024
“Tactical beard oil.” The responses are great.
“Argument escalates when man visits neighbor with sword and firebomb, Florida cops say” [News & Observer]. I’ll say! “When interviewed, the 36-year-old man confirmed using a bottle with some gasoline in it and brandishing a sword ‘to make a point,’ police said. The suspect said ‘he went to the residence to send a message regarding disrespect to a family member,’ police said. Details of that incident were not released.”
Groves of Academe
“UCLA’s new AI-designed literature course has the worst-looking textbook cover I’ve ever seen” [Literary Hub]. “UCLA announced the other day that ‘Comp Lit 2BW will be the first course in the UCLA College Division of Humanities to be built around the Kudu artificial intelligence platform. The textbook: AI-generated. Class assignments: AI-generated. Teaching assistants’ resources: AI-generated.’ The professor’s explanation of why any of this is good doesn’t make any sense to me — she seems to be describing standard teaching practices like discussing texts and putting together a syllabus, but now AI is involved. Which to me always feels like a looming labor issue — I wouldn’t be shocked to see this software cited as justification to fire professors or TAs, or reduce their pay.” Plus ça change…. More “But what really got me fuming was the horrible, horrible textbook cover that was extruded for this course.” • Here it is:
Concluding: “This cover sucks, it’s so bad. Have some dignity people, we don’t have to live like this.” • UCLA administrators: “Yes, you do.”
Poetry Nook
A villanelle (?):
“The villanelle has been noted as a form that frequently treats the subject of obsessions, and one which appeals to outsiders; its defining feature of repetition prevents it from having a conventional tone.” Maybe the poet is an outsider now….
Healthcare
“Seattle road sign’s message raises questions after CEO’s shooting” [KOMO (PI)]. “It is not yet known who was responsible for programming the sign or which agency operates it — Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT) — or a private company.” • Wowsers:
Those swing voters are getting really antsy….
I am not feeling wired today.
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