ECONOMY

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/28/2024 | naked capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Antietam National Battlefield, Washington, Maryland, United States. “Male Northern Mockingbird singing from roadside Eastern Red Cedar. This birds plumage was brownish rather than black — therefore the age is not known for certain. Seems like a rather accomplished singing for a HY bird.” 12 minutes of mockingbird song! A good start to the week. Grab a cup of coffee! HY = Hatching Year.

“Learn to tune into birdsong – respite and fascination await” [David Logue, Psyche (AL)]. “On a typical day, I’m in the tropical forest long before dawn. I stand near a tree with a microphone, waiting for the bird that lives there to wake up and sing. When it finally does, I whisper ‘bird’ into the microphone. It’s a message to my future self that the bird on the recording is the one I meant to record. As the dawn chorus ramps up, I focus ever more on the sound of that bird. I whisper ‘bird’ after each of its songs, like a monk reciting his mantra. All of my attention is on the Adelaide’s warbler, singing from the top of the tamarind tree; there is none left for extraneous thought. I feel like I belong in the present moment, with no desire to be or do anything else. That feeling remains with me long after I leave the field site… Listening deeply to birdsong – that is, listening mindfully, with open attention – combines the benefits of mindfulness practice and those of listening to bird sounds. Here’s how to get started.” • “A tree” and “the bird” implies that every tree has its bird. Can that be true?

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. “Joy” at Bluesky.
  2. Trump team drags feet on signing ethics and transparency agreements.
  3. Boeing 737 DHL plane crashes in Lithuania.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

An example of “joy” at Bluesky:

One day, like a miracle. ☕️

[image or embed]

— 𝑀𝒶𝓎𝓇𝒶°❀⋆.ೃ࿔*:・🫧🦋 (@lepapillonblue.bsky.social) November 24, 2024 at 10:06 AM

The comments are adorable.

Trump Transition

“Trump team barred from agencies amid legal standoff” [Politico]. “Advisers to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reached out to the Health and Human Services Department multiple times after Donald Trump tapped him to lead the massive agency, hoping to jumpstart coordination before his takeover in late January. They were rebuffed. Kennedy’s inability to communicate with the agency he may soon manage, confirmed by an administration official with knowledge of the episodes granted anonymity to describe internal deliberations, is just one consequence of the president-elect’s continued foot-dragging on signing the standard trio of ethics and transparency agreements with the federal government — something his team pledged to do shortly after the election. … Both the Trump transition and the White House confirmed to POLITICO that negotiations on the agreements are still underway…. Watchdog groups, ethics experts and former government officials say the delay in coordination with federal agencies, which typically begins by mid-November, means the new administration won’t be up to speed on the state of the career workforce and budget and what headaches may await them when Trump takes the oath of office on Jan. 20. The failure thus far to sign the memorandums has also troubled Biden officials, who are particularly concerned about the potential national security implications. Without the agreements in place, Trump’s team can’t access any non-public government data — depriving it of a full view of efforts the White House and federal agencies are taking to safeguard against a range of threats.” • Part of me says that working only from public data would be a great idea, since otherwise you’re owned by the people who own the secrets.

2024 Post Mortem

Deploy the Blame Cannons!

“Mega-donor: Democratic overspending disqualifies Harris ‘forever’” [The Hill]. “[Political mega-donor John Morgan] added that the reported $1.5 billion spent in four months is proof that Harris shouldn’t run again. ‘I think this disqualifies her forever,’ Morgan said. ‘If you can’t run a campaign, you can’t run America.’ ‘The same thing is going to follow Harris for the rest of her career. She cannot be trusted with the money, and the donors are going to be, like, ‘Where is this money?” he added.”

* * *

Please, no:

On what grounds would Kamala run again?

The #Resistance

“This is the new progressive strategy for warring with Trump” [Politico]. “Progressive Democrats wrestling with how to navigate a second Donald Trump presidency are settling on a new approach: Take his populist, working-class proposals at his word — or at least pretend to. If he succeeds, they can take some credit for bringing him to the table.” Lol. No they can’t. More: ” If he doesn’t, they can bash him for it. It’s a change in strategy, emerging in private conversations among some liberal elected officials and operatives, that comes after years of resisting Trump ended with him returning to the White House.” And finally: “Progressives are clear-eyed that with a Republican-controlled House and Senate, many, if not most, of Trump’s populist campaign promises will not happen — if he were ever serious about them to begin with. But they believe that his voters want him to follow through. They also lack any power in Congress and are desperate for even an outside chance to influence policy.” • Not with a bang but a whimper. Hey, I’m so old I remember when Trump was a fascist!

Democrats en déshabillé

Centrist dipshits, as Atrios calls them:

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

Mask Project:

“I Ran Operation Warp Speed. I’m Concerned About Bird Flu” [David A. Kessler, New York Times]. “As Donald Trump gets ready to return to the White House on Jan. 20, he must be prepared to tackle one issue immediately: the possibility that the spreading avian flu might mutate to enable human-to-human transmission….. I have been monitoring the spread of bird flu, also known as H5N1, and discussing the situation with colleagues around the country. My concern is growing…. Without mandatory testing, bird flu will continue circulating at farms across the country, which substantially increases the risk that the virus mutates and evolves to allow a human-to-human transmission that will be hard to stop…. No one knows how many mutations will be required to set off human-to- human respiratory spread. That could require many mutations and may never happen. But we could also be just two or three mutations away. If the virus begins to transmit efficiently among humans, it will be very difficult to contain, according to the Johns Hopkins assessment, and ‘the likelihood of a pandemic is very high.’ The incoming Trump administration needs to be prepared.” • I hope raw milk stans don’t have inordinate influence….

Vaccines

Although Adams had a position in the last Trump Adminisration, sadly he does not in the current one:

Personal Risk Assessment

Admirable commitment to the bit:

FAFO….

Elite Maleficence

I suppose the only solution is to put our trust in the billionaires, especially the tech bros:

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 18 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC November 23 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 16

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data November 25: National [6] CDC November 21:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens November 25: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 16:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC November 4: Variants[10] CDC November 4:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District was unchanged… The reading showed that activity remained sluggish.”

Housing: “United States FHFA House Price Index” [Trading Economics]. “Housing Index in the United States decreased to 0.70 points in September from 427 points in August of 2024. Housing Index in the United States averaged 200.20 points from 1991 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 427.00 points in August of 2024 and a record low of 0.70 points in September of 2024” • What?

* * *

Manufacturing: “Chilling cockpit audio from doomed Boeing 737 DHL plane just before it crashed in fireball is revealed – along with recording of air traffic control scrambling to deal with aftermath: ‘We just got a crash’” [Daily Mail]. “The cause of the crash remains a mystery as Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre deployed experts to investigate… The incident follows reports in recent months that mysterious explosions had occurred at DHL warehouses in Leipzig and Birmingham amid fears of a Russian covert sabotage operation intended to explode aircraft flying in the West.” • Lithuania, eh?

Manufacturing: “The unanswered questions surrounding the DHL Boeing 737 crash” [iNews]. “After departing from Leipzig, Germany, the Boeing 737 made a “forced landing” one kilometre from the airport, splitting into pieces upon impact and sliding more than 100m, leaving a trail of burning wreckage. Germany’s foreign minister suggested the incident could have been a hybrid attack in “volatile times”, apparently referring to suspected acts of sabotage by Russia against Ukraine’s EU allies…. On Tuesday afternoon, the Lithuanian Justice Ministry said the black boxes, containing flight data and voice recorders, had been found… In footage of the incident, the plane is seen turning quickly on its side moments before crashing in a residential area, near a road. The same movement was described by witness Kotryna Ciupailaite, who saw the plane flying over her car as she drove to work. ‘The right wing of the plane turned down before it crashed as if it was trying to turn,’ she said. ‘There was something shiny coming out of the right side of the plane, like sparks or a flame, before it hit the ground.’”

Manufacturing: “Boeing SC seeks more environmental permits ahead of planned 787 production hikes” [Post and Courier]. “Boeing Co. has filed a flurry of permit applications over the past year — including four this month — with an eye toward future expansion of its 787 plant in North Charleston, as the planemaker hopes to double the number of wide-bodies it builds in South Carolina…. The plans are being driven by Boeing’s projections that airlines globally will need 8,065 new wide-body commercial jets like the Dreamliner over the next 20 years as the demand for air travel outpaces economic growth. The need is particularly strong in the Middle East…”

Manufacturing: “China Southern Airlines Announces Plan To Sell Entire Fleet Of 10 Boeing 787-8s” [Simple Flying]. “[T]he 787-8 has gradually been overshadowed by its larger sibling, the Boeing 787-9. The 787-8, with its smaller passenger capacity and higher per-seat costs, is no longer as economically viable for airlines. In comparison, the 787-9 offers greater seating capacity and improved operational efficiency, making it a preferred choice for modern fleets. China Southern’s intent to sell all 10 of its 787-8s aligns with a broader industry trend among Chinese airlines to phase out older widebody aircraft in favor of more efficient models. Earlier this year, the airline retired its Airbus A380s and has significantly slowed widebody aircraft acquisitions, reflecting a shift toward narrowbody planes better suited for the post-pandemic recovery in domestic and regional markets.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 64 Greed (previous close: 61 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 49 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 26 at 1:21:13 PM ET…

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Drought. “A very large area of the nation is under general drought conditions” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 183. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?

Gallery

Perhaps I would prefer the photograph, the “original”?

Zeitgeist Watch

“‘What many of us feel’: why ‘enshittification’ is Macquarie Dictionary’s word of the year” [Guardian]. “But enshittification not only won their vote, it took out the people’s choice award. ‘This word captures what many of us feel is happening to the world and to so many aspects of our lives at the moment,’ the [dictionary] committee said. Doctorow himself is surprisingly optimistic about where this could all end up. Action on competition to prevent market dominance, regulation on things such as digital privacy, more power for users to decide how they use platforms, and tackling the exploitation of workers could reverse the process, he wrote, because ‘everyone has a stake in disenshittification.’ Big tech can’t be fixed, he argues, but maybe it can be destroyed. He adds a fourth stage to the tech platforms’ scatological journey from being good to users, to abusing them in favour of their customers, to abusing their customers to serve themselves. ‘Then they die,’ he wrote.” •

News of the Wired

I am not feeing wired today.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From a friend of Bob or Janet:

The friend writes: “Two weeks or so ago now, I discovered this adorable plant off to the side of the campus of my high school just up the hill from me: I used PlantNet to ID it first time around, and it gave me Geranium sibirica, but questioned it. I went to GoBotany, and discovered they have something called PlantShare (I think that’s how I remember it) and submitted my photo to them. I got an answer back from Arthur Haines of the Native Plant Trust saying he thought it was G. pratense and asked me for more photos and measurements, etc., eventually asking for pictures of the rhizomes and roots coming out of the rhizomes, ending up with asking for photo of the larger area where it is growing, which I sent along with my first video ever of the area. In consultation with some other botanists, he has confirmed that it is G. thunbergii, and that this is a first sighting in NH yet! He is going to add it to GoBotany’s distribution maps. I’ve had such a good time working with him, and he has been very appreciative of my interest and participation.” Interesting!

Readers, if you haven’t sent in a plant photo to Water Cooler, why not try it? It’s easy, it’s fun, and you get some nice compliments! (If you need directions, see below.)

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.













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