By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, I had a Twitter debacle, and so this is a little bit light. More soon. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, Big Bend NP–Chisos Basin Campground, Brewster, Texas, United States. “Singing lustily before first light.” Indeed! This spectrogram shows the virtuosity very clearly (not all do).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Transition
BFFs:
Biden seems happy.
Maybe people can stop wasting their energy defending him now. pic.twitter.com/HI7groP6CC
— leahmcelrath.bsky.social (@leahmcelrath) November 13, 2024
So much for all that ”
“Biden, Trump Die 2 Minutes Apart Holding Hands” [The Onion]. “‘Only minutes before their deaths, they requested that their hospital beds be pushed together—it’s like they knew what was coming,’ said Marlene Kato, a nurse who confirmed that medical staff at Walter Reed Medical Center, where the two presidents spent their final hours together, were stunned when Biden died at 8:05 p.m. and Trump followed at 8:07. ‘They were rivals in life, but they came together with love in death. They were both very weak, but turned their heads to face each other and smiled. Biden said, ‘You were the only one who ever got me,’ and Trump said, ‘I know.’ I started tearing up right there and then. It was just so beautiful. Then they used their final breaths to request a shared burial plot at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster.’ At press time, a coroner’s report revealed that Trump had strangled Biden and then succumbed to a heart attack two minutes later.”• Oh.
2024 Post Mortem
“The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. The Abstract: “Split outcomes between presidential and Senate results saw a resurgence in 2024, as at least four Donald Trump-won states sent Democrats to the Senate. Republicans still took the majority in the Senate because while Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) performed notably better than Kamala Harris, they did not do so by enough to hold their seats. Across most key Senate races, Senate Democrats ran better than Harris in rural parts of their states but were comparatively weak in some suburban counties. In one of Harris’s best states, Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) stood out as Republicans’ top overperformer, although Harris’s 26-point margin in the state was too much for him to overcome.” • Handy map:
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Transmission: H5N1
“Bird flu: Canadian teenager is critically ill with new genotype” [BMJ]. “A Canadian adolescent is in a critical condition in a British Columbia hospital after becoming infected with a new genotype of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The patient, who has not been publicly identified, developed conjunctivitis on 2 November, followed by fever and coughing. While these symptoms have been common in people infected with H5N1 bird flu in North America—until now, all US cases—the teenager in Canada then developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and was admitted to intensive care on 8 November. ”
“Canada: PHAC Confirms HPAI H5N1 Genotype D1.1 In B.C. Human Infection” [Avian Flu Diary]. “We now have the answer to at least 2 of our questions regarding the H5 virus infection in a teenager from British Columbia; according to a statement from the PHAC (h/t FluTrackers) the subtype has been confirmed to be H5N1 and the genotype is D1.1. ” More on D.1.1:
Perhaps we should give consideration to invoking the precautionary principle:
We really shouldn’t play “let ‘er rip” with H5N1, but that’s what we’re doing.
Media
“Covid grifters are (still) wrong: the structure of esoteric knowledge” [ClosedForm]. “I could take a weathered desire path here and argue that these analyses are politically dangerous in addition to being ignorant; that they misidentify the culprits, misunderstand the problems, point people galvanized to ‘get involved’ down dead-end paths. Someone else can make those arguments. I want to talk about something weirder: the funky thread of esotericism running through the beautiful tapestry of the Covid grifter community and through its associated epistemological stance…. The Covid grifters miss (‘miss’ is a bit passive) alternative explanations because they assume that if it is published in a scientific paper, it must be true and must confirm their existing belief. This is a grave misunderstanding of what the scientific literature is. It’s not a repository of truth claims. It’s a body of work produced by people working in a specific political economy, one that incentivizes publishing ‘statistically significant’ findings (which are not the same thing as actually significant or meaningful findings), and really incentivizes publishing anything about hot topics like, say, a devastating pandemic.”
Elite Maleficence
The UK, but yikes:
Nosocomial Covid in Wales
‘Number of inpatient Covid-19 cases in hospital in Wales’
On 10 November 2024, at least 67% of inpatient Covid cases in Wales were the result of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection…
(PHW data) pic.twitter.com/HnGsHtf7hL
— Gwladwr (@gwladwr) November 13, 2024
“There’s a Better Way to Talk About Fluoride, Vaccines and Raw Milk” [Emily Oster, New York Times]. “Consider three topics of much public discussion: measles vaccines, raw milk and water fluoridation. All three represent fault lines between what is said by public health agencies and by Mr. Kennedy and other skeptics. Where their messages differ is in the strength and complexity of the evidence…. My suggestion is that when asked about these topics, health experts provide this level of detail. Simply saying that vaccines are good and raw milk is bad misses specifics that people find important. People often do their research, and if they feel the risks of raw milk have been exaggerated, it can erode their trust. Now perhaps that person is more likely to distrust the vaccine messaging, too. With more information, we provide room for people to drink raw milk but also vaccinate their kids. Which is, basically, a reasonable choice. Providing context also helps people make sense of new information…. Being more nuanced will not be easy for public health agencies. They need to put more trust in their audience…. If health experts share a more balanced message about raw milk, more people might drink raw milk. And, yes, that does entail some increased risk. I am arguing that in exchange you may get higher measles vaccination. It’s not a perfect scenario, but it may mean that fewer people get sick and die. Which, after all, should be the ultimate goal.” • The problem here is that Oster, an economist, has track record:
Here’s a horrendous example of COVID misinformation spread by Emily Oster in 2020, which has been proven wrong by research many times since. Please do not listen to any of her advice about public health. pic.twitter.com/bAnP3rbXEv
— Dr. Lucky Tran (@luckytran) November 14, 2024
Just like all the pro-Iraq pundits, still making bank, twenty years later…
HICPAC meeting today and tomorrow:
♒️More in🧵👆🏼
♒️#HICPAC Mtg THURS & FRI Nov 14-15❗️
♒️”CDC’s HICPAC: #COI & Process Violations Alleged in @TheWHN Suppl Complaint 2 Inspector General”
♒️Impt fr @lambertstrether❗️👇🏼
♒️Pls share👇🏽#HCW #H5N1 @PeoplesCDC @Pan_End_It @C19LH_Advocacy https://t.co/cTZ3UTQJ02
— HealthCommunication (@Comm_in_Care) November 13, 2024
I apologize for not getting to this earlier; mentally, I’m still digging out from the election. Here are the drafts HICPAC has been working from:
HICPAC is finally giving the public a look at the drafts that they will be discussing and voting on tomorrow:
Isolation Workgroup – https://t.co/jqVqN8F6P6
Healthcare Personnel Wkgrp – https://t.co/kJ5EnqTFNM— Deb Soc – #KeepMasksInHealthCare #StopTheSpread! (@dsoq) November 13, 2024
For the latest on HICPAC, see NC here.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC November 4 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC November 9 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 2 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data November 12: | ★ National [6] CDC November 8: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens November 11: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 9: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC October 21: | Variants[10] CDC October 21: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.
[7] (Walgreens) Down.
[8] (Cleveland) Down.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 4,000 from the previous week to 217,000 on the period ending November 9th, the least since May, and firmly below market expectations of an increase to 223,000. In turn, outstanding unemployment claims fell by 19,000 to 1,873,000 in the last week of October. The results extended the view that the US labor market remains at historically strong levels despite the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in the last quarters, adding leeway for the central bank to slow the pace of monetary loosening should inflation remain stubbornly high.”
Inflation: “United States Producer Prices Final Demand Less Foods and Energy YoY” [Trading Economics]. “The annual core producer inflation in the US which excludes prices for foods and energy, rose to 3.1% in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 2.9% in the prior month and slightly above market forecasts of 3%.”
Manufacturing: “Pink slips arrive for laid-off Boeing workers as company begins 10% cut” [Seattle Times]. “The cuts are not expected to hit members of the Machinists union, but they did affect members of the engineering union, SPEEA.” • Won’t they need engineers to design a new plane?
Manufacturing: “Boeing hires Northrop executive to take over Pentagon projects” [Reuters]. ” Boeing said on Thursday it hired former Northrop Grumman executive Colin Miller to head its Phantom Works research arm within the company’s defense business unit. Miller’s hiring as general manager of Phantom Works at Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS) had been in the works before the arrival of new Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. Boeing’s defense business has been struggling under the weight of budget-busting older contracts, but Ortberg said in October that the unit which makes helicopters, fighter jets and missiles remains “core” to the company’s future.” • Not to triage them, then?
Tech: “Mark Zuckerberg Wants to Feed You More AI Slop” [Bloomberg]. “Get ready, folks. In much the same way that short videos and viral content took over feeds once populated with posts from our friends and family, the next wave of content will be machine-generated. A progression from personal to viral content and now to AI content seems like a dystopian direction for a social media firm that’s long framed itself as “connecting people.” But Zuckerberg calls this new trend ‘promising.’ His view is not unusual in the industry. I’ve spoken to several technology executives who believe that AI-generated content — which could make up as much as 90% of content on the Internet, according to one wild estimate — will be accepted as the new normal. AI-generated videos will eventually be called ‘videos,’ the thinking goes.” • Nice to see “AI Slop” make it into a Bloomberg headline.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 63 Greed (previous close: 67 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 58 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 14 at 1:45:43 PM ET.
Gallery
Healthcare
I can’t vouch for this, but it does seem like something to watch out for:
Have any readers experienced this?
Our Famously Free Press
“The Onion Says It Has Bought Infowars, Alex Jones’s Site, Out of Bankruptcy” [New York Times]. “The Onion said that the bid was sanctioned by the families of the victims of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, who in 2022 won a $1.4 billion defamation lawsuit against Mr. Jones and his company, Free Speech Systems…. The publication plans to reintroduce Infowars in January as a parody of itself, mocking ‘weird internet personalities’ like Mr. Jones who traffic in misinformation and health supplements, Ben Collins, the chief executive of The Onion’s parent company, Global Tetrahedron, said in an interview.” • Should be challenging!
“The brain summons deep sleep for healing from life-threatening injury” [Nature]. “Immune cells rush to the brain and promote deep sleep after a heart attack, according to a new study1 involving both mice and humans. This heavy slumber helps recovery by easing inflammation in the heart, the study found…. The implications of the study go beyond heart attack, says Rachel Rowe, a specialist in sleep and inflammation at the University of Colorado Boulder. ‘For any kind of injury, your body’s natural response would be to help you sleep so your body can heal,’ she says.”• Hmm. Makes you wonder about other forms of inflammation and sleep.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “The last of our 2024 anemones.”
Yet again, kind readers, I tap the sign: More plant images, please. My inventory is still more nervous-making than I would like it to be. Do you have images to send in, especially of autumn produce or winter projects? I enjoy them very much, and I’m sure other readers do too!
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