By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, Carretera Federal 196, Guerrero, MX (17.465, -100.166), Atoyac de Álvarez, Guerrero, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
- New RCP chart (it’s tied) and newCovid charts (not worsening).
- Boeing strike continues; Warren and Blumenthal call for criminal investigations of executives.
- Kamala to throw Khan, Gensler under the bus (ka-ching).
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)
“Take him out”?!?
NEW: Crowd starts clapping after ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin appears to suggest that Melania Trump wants to k*ll Donald Trump.
Hostin says Melania wants to “take [Trump] out” because she “hates” him.
Hostin: “I think she hates him. So we can all agree on that. That’s a… pic.twitter.com/99p2xokU8P
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 3, 2024
See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White People.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing death on their political enemies for some time. Now they yuk it up on daytime television.
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
If you ignore the entire concept of margin of error, Trump gained a few inches of ground in the trench warfare (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * * * * Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris’s Wall Street charm offensive begins to pay off” [Financial Times]. “Two finance executives close to Harris said she had reassured them that she could appoint new officials to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission who would take a less aggressive stance than current respective chairs Gary Gensler and Lina Khan.” • That’s nice.
Kamala (D): Cheneygasm:
It’s amazinghttps://t.co/6qbdq7Zvxx
— Nate Hochman (@njhochman) October 4, 2024
We always used to chastise Democrats for moving right, because why would people vote for a fake Republican when they could vote for a real one? We never anticipated that the Democrats would actually become Republicans, or Republicans Democrats. With all that entails.
Liz Cheney does have to do this. She can’t just go on with her life. Her family fortune is in Halliburton, which has hitched its financial star to the tune of billions to the fate of Ukraine. https://t.co/414Cw9qUXR pic.twitter.com/ho0q96oUad
— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) October 4, 2024
Weird.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Vaccines
“Vaccines, Past and Present” [Science]. Throwing down the guantlet: “For sheer public health benefit, once you establish a clean water supply it’s very hard to beat effective vaccines. We have wiped out smallpox as a disease, one that had been dreaded all the way back to prehistory. We are tantilizingly close to doing the same with polio. Other diseases that used to be a common feature of life (especially for children) are now rare and hardly thought of, because of broad vaccination programs starting in infancy. The amount of disability and outright premature death that has been avoided by these efforts over the last century is nearly beyond calculation: we life in a different and far better world because of them. That’s what makes anti-vaccine activism so frustrating. People have been suspicious of the whole idea of vaccination ever since the beginning, but the toxic skepticism really seems to have increased in recent years, reaching a crescendo during the coronavirus pandemic. The first outright anti-vaxxer I ever encountered was in about 1992, and I was baffled – I thought I was talking to someone through some kind of time portal that opened up to a hundred years before. Little did I realize! The populations of the industrialized nations have forgotten (or never known at all) what all these diseases used to do, and imagine things like measles, pertussis, and rubella to be breezy little fevers that used to make kids miss a day or two of school before they were all good as new. (You really can find anti-vaccine folks talking exactly like that). And to avoid these wholesome natural rites of childhood, you want to let evil drug companies inject horrible concoctions into perfect little babies? Defiling them forever? Get those toxin-laden syringes out of here!” • That said, when I was a mere sprat, I think I was given MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella) for which I am grateful. When I look at today’s vaccinatiion schedule, I stopped counting at twenty and there was plenty to come. Knowing what I know today about CDC, I can well believe that institutional imperatives are driving that number, in addition to science. Further — and I would love to be proved wrong on this — I would bet the count of studies on interactions between all 20+ vaccines would approximate to zero. In a perfect world. we could have discussion on cutting back; a schedule that big just can’t be right. This world, however, is not perfect, and my concern is rolling back all vaccination, including MMR, taking us back to the days before Edward Jenner, when “natural immunity” meant a lot of children died early. Oh for the days when anti-vax sentiment was confined to rich [glass bowls] in Marin County, who could always send their children to hospital! (Of course, one of the reasons to burn CDC to the ground, plow the rubble under, and salt the earth is how badly they butchered the Covid vaccines, with a resulting anti-halo (?) effect for all vaccines.)
Testing and Tracking: Wastewater
“Sequencing wastewater material may be the key to getting a grip on the H5N1 bird flu outbreak” [STAT]. “It is possible that H5N1 may be even more widespread, including in states without reported infections among dairy cows, but a lack of testing has made it difficult to know where the virus is circulating. This bottleneck could be resolved by sampling wastewater as close to dairy farms as possible and using genomic sequencing to confirm the presence of H5N1. Sequencing could also assess any detected virus for mutations possibly conducive for human transmission and enable phylogenetic analyses that can help determine from which species it may have originated. The more H5N1 is allowed to circulate, especially among dairy cows that are clustered closely together in large numbers and with close human contact, the greater the chance the virus could evolve for efficient human spread. Several months into this outbreak, on-farm testing has remained limited. Farm owners remain reluctant to allow testing of bulk milk and animals due to fears of financial loss. Farm workers, many of whom are undocumented, have also been hesitant to get tested due to concerns of losing work, immigration issues, and, in some instances, being unaware that there is an outbreak. After nine poultry workers were infected in July, Colorado mandated routine testing of bulk milk on all dairy farms. This policy quickly led to the detection of 11 infected herds. Colorado required these herds to remain isolated until subsequent testing confirms that viral circulation is no longer present. Massachusetts is the only other state to test all its dairy herds. Other states have not pursued similar directives presumably due to opposition from farm owners and the dairy industry. Colorado’s approach could be mimicked without mandates by sampling wastewater as close to farms as possible and sequencing it for H5N1. ” • Dairy farmers fighting testing tooth and nail should get together with hospitals fighting masks.
Lambert here: At last, the wastewater data looks improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Back to School” bullet, at least at the national level. The wastewater drop is reinforced by the positivity numbers as well.
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 28 | ★ Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 26 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data October 3: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| ★ Positivity[9] CDC September 16: | ★Variants[10] CDC September 16: |
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| Deaths | |
| ★ Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 28: | ★ Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 28: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.1% in September 2024, the lowest in three months, down from 4.2% in the previous month and surprising market expectations, which had forecasted the rate to remain unchanged.”
Manufacturing: “Nearly 3 weeks into strike, resolve remains for Boeing workers” [Everett Herald]. “Some Machinists bring bullhorns to spread their message, others homemade signs that read ‘No pension, no planes.’ The company’s pension plan continues to be a major sticking point in contract negotiations. Many said restoring pensions was their primary demand. In 2014, the union narrowly voted to forego pensions after Boeing floated working on a new version of the 777 out of state. ‘We want it back,’ said Andrew Darazs, who was on the picket line Wednesday. ‘I ask all these guys who retire from here, I’m like, would you be able to retire without your pension? Absolutely not.’”
Manufacturing: “US Senators Want DOJ To Hold Boeing Executives Accountable For 737 MAX Safety Issues” [Simple Flying]. “wo Democratic United States senators, Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, have called out the Department of Justice ( DOJ) for failing to hold Boeing and its executives accountable…. The two senators sent a public letter to Merrick Garland, the Attorney General of the DOJ, and Lisa Monaco, the Deputy Attorney General of the DOJ. According to Warren and Blumenthal, Boeing’s company culture has promoted short-term profit over passenger safety, and the DOJ’s refusal to prosecute individual executives has failed to change this culture.” And from the letter: “[W]e urge DOJ to thoroughly investigate Boeing’s safety failures, identify any individual executives who are criminally responsible for the company’s concerning safety culture, and, critically, hold them accountable.” • About time.
Manufacturing: “Boeing, Virgin Galactic settle lawsuit over work on Virgin ‘mothership’” [Reuters]. “Virgin Galactic’s mothership jet carrier delivers sightseeing vessels into suborbital space. The company completed its first commercial flight last year. Virgin signed a contract with Boeing’s Aurora Flight Sciences in 2022 to help design a new mothership. Boeing later said that the mothership would cost more and take longer to develop than expected. Boeing sued Virgin in March, accusing it of stealing trade secrets and refusing to pay $25 million owed for Boeing’s work. The lawsuit said Virgin took proprietary information from Boeing including test data and math equations. Virgin countersued in California in April, claiming Boeing performed ‘shoddy and incomplete work. on the aircraft.” • Which would indeed have been unsurprising. Small potatoes, but something crossed of Ortberg’s list, I suppose.
Manufacturing: “Veteran analyst roasts Boeing’s stock after miscues” [TheStreet]. Following a horrid timeline, this: “So it’s no great surprise that Boeing’s stock has plunged 60% over the past five years and 42% so far this year alone. If it weren’t the country’s sole big jet manufacturer and an important contractor for the Pentagon, Boeing might be in danger of going under.” And: “TheStreet Pro analyst Stephen Guilfoyle, whose career stretches back to the 1980s on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, sees Boeing’s pain continuing. As of June 30, the company had $52.904 billion of debt, of which $4.765 billion is due within 12 months, the veteran investor said. Boeing also had accounts payable of $11.864 billion and $8.407 billion in pension-related liabilities. Technical analysis factors bode ill for the company, too.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.
Pronounced “oof”:
Valuable child raising tip from the New York Times pic.twitter.com/JPxhtmEgUc
— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) October 3, 2024
Anyone else count the fingers on the kid’s hand? OTOH, just when I conclude the Times is completely irredeemable–
Gallery
“10-Minute Challenge: Hiroshige’s ‘Sudden Rain’” [New York Times]. The deck: “We’d like you to look at one piece of art for 10 minutes, uninterrupted.” Hiroshige, “Great Bridge: Sudden Rain at Atake”:
“The Golden Owl treasure hunt is won after 31 years” [Golden Owl Hunt]. “Michel Becker, the treasure hunt organiser, has announced that the correct solution has been given to him. The longest running treasure hunt in the world* is finally over! *Sur La Trace de La Chouette d’Or founded in 1993 is the longest running unsolved treasure hunt with a single prize. The Secret treasure hunt was founded in 1982 but 3 of the 12 prizes have been found.” • Great, I suppose.
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