By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, this is shorter than it should be, because I must hustle along and finish my post on Trump’s visit to McDonald’s. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
I thought I would try some nightingales….
Common Nightingale, Wedding (Kreisfreie Stadt), Berlin, Germany. “Bird singing, as neighbours insist: 24 hours a day (!?),”
In Case You Might Miss…
- The polls: the race is too close to call.
- Obama’s West Wing Brain.
- Machinists to vote on the new contract Wednesday; it’s a cliffhanger.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than three weeks to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
Big Mo shifts toward Trump, this week, even in WI (that is, if you ignore the entire concept of margin of error). Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump’s base of non-college White voters.
This is key because they make up a ton of the electorate, especially in MI, PA & WI. Explains why she’s holding her own in MI, PA & WI. pic.twitter.com/ww9pnp3DxY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 21, 2024
“Exclusive poll: Harris and Trump tied amid battle for Latino and Black voters” [USA Today]. “In the seven weeks between the two polls, Harris lost ground among Latino voters, who now support Trump 49% to 38%, and among Black voters. They favor Harris 72% to 17%, a 55-point advantage that is well below where Democrats traditionally fare…. Trump leads among men, 53% to 37%, a mirror image of Harris’ lead among women, 53% to 36%.” • Hence Harris’s campaign theme of Lyistratic Non-Action.
“State of the Race: A Slight Shift Toward Trump but Still No Clear Favorite” [Nate Cohn, New York Times]. “The polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey any meaningful information. For all purposes, the race is tied; don’t feel any sorrow or take any solace in whether your candidate is on the right or wrong side of that 0.2-point gap…. In recent elections, the polls have tended to systematically underestimate or overestimate one side by several percentage points. If that happens this year, either candidate could claim a surprisingly decisive victory. • Handy chart (though 2022 was not a Presidential election year):
“Where are the polls?” [Politico]. “The weekend is passing without a single high-quality public poll — nationally or in any of the battleground states — released on either Saturday or Sunday. Nothing from The New York Times and its high-profile partnership with Siena College. Crickets from all five broadcast and cable news networks’ Sunday shows. It’s a striking lack of data in the third-to-last weekend before Election Day… For now, it seems like many of the pollsters with the most established track records are taking an uncharacteristic break in advance of their final polls over the last two weeks of the race.” • It’s quiet. Too quiet.
“I spent 3 days in 3 battleground states. Here’s what voters told me” [Los Angeles Times]. “It’s hard to believe after the Fox News interviews, the daily barrage of screaming ads and all the history on these two candidates that anyone would be left undecided with less than three weeks until election day. Yet there they were, surprisingly easy to find, drinking lattes at a strip mall Starbucks, browsing magazines at Barnes & Noble and eating eggs with their spouses at a pancake restaurant. Some were leaning toward former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris but were waiting on family meetings or a final round of online research. Others were hoping for inspiration on the drive to the precinct on Nov. 5.” Family meetings! At the end: “Clayton Ewing, a 63-year-old retiree from Shelby Township, Mich. who has voted for Trump in prior elections … said he may wait until he gets to the polls to make a final decision. ‘I just hope, whoever gets in, does a good job,’ he said. ‘We can go four years down the road and get some new characters.’” • Doubtful.
* * * Kamala (D): Another billionaire heard from:
Mark Cuban is splitting the Dems, attacking the Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders wing of the party right before an important election, calling for Lina Khan to be fired and bragging about sabotaging policy Harris committed to. Why is Harris campaigning with Cuban? This is… https://t.co/dUoQ4pQ6d9
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) October 21, 2024
Kamala (D): “Harris has no current plans to campaign with Biden before Election Day” [NBC]. “The strategy was crafted with coordination between Harris and Biden aides, who believe at this time that ‘the most important role he can play is doing his job as president,’ said one of the White House officials who, like others in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. ‘He’s out there doing the job as president, and she’s out there campaigning,’ the official said, adding: ‘It’s clear voters want something new.’”
* * * Trump (R): “Trump’s Bro-Whispering Could Cost Democrats Too Many Young Men” [New York Times]. “Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z men report feeling regularly stressed by an uncertain future, stirring painful memories of the Great Recession they witnessed as children [thanks, Obama!]. And: “His playbook? A master class in bro-whispering: championing crypto, securing the endorsement of Dave Portnoy — the unapologetically offensive founder of Barstool Sports — and giving U.F.C. President Dana White, who embodies the alpha-male archetype that appeals to many young men, a prime spot at the Republican National Convention. Mr. Trump has also cultivated relationships with simpatico comedians, pranksters, influencers and Silicon Valley billionaires like Elon Musk — all while his team bombards podcasts and social media with misinformation and memes to rally his troops. This shift in support for Mr. Trump among men is neither organic nor unexpected. It’s what happens when a well-coordinated political operation invests tens of millions of dollars to amplify Mr. Trump’s narrative and weaken confidence in the party in power… . Is this rightward drift among young men simply a short-lived, Trump-inspired episode or a more permanent transformation? The answer lies partly in Ms. Harris’s ability to connect with and motivate young voters as the campaign nears its end. To be sure, she is doing better than Mr. Biden. Among men 18 to 29, her favorable rating is 44 percent, seven percentage points higher than Mr. Biden’s and thirteen points higher than Mr. Trump’s. While Mr. Biden’s age and traditional political approach often created distance with younger voters, Ms. Harris’s ability to engage across digital platforms and tap into youth culture sets her apart.” I’m not sure how genuine Kamala’s ability to tap into “youth culture” is. She is, after all, only young compared to Biden or Trump. Finally: “To reignite the hope of the emerging generation, Ms. Harris should make a sweeping national call to both military and civilian service — name it the Generation Z Compact to Rebuild and Renew America. Such a plan would offer a sense of identity, community and patriotism, while providing economic stability and skill-building — things many young men feel they are missing.” • Dear Lord. Bring back the draft? Strength through joy?
The Wizard of Kalorama™
BREAKING: For the first time ever, President Obama reveals that he handed over a detailed playbook on how to deal with pandemics, and Trump ignored it.
“400,000 people would’ve been alive if Donald Trump had just paid attention and tried to follow the plan that we gave him.” pic.twitter.com/xanU0kzHmI
— CALL TO ACTIVISM (@CalltoActivism) October 20, 2024
No. See “If Obama’s “Pandemic Playbook” Was So Great, Why Isn’t Biden Following It?” where I give the playbook a close reading:
Notice first, from the logo at top left, that the owner of the document [the Playbook] is not, as Politico would have it, the National Security Council, but The Executive Office of the President. “The EOP consists of several offices and agencies, such as the White House Office (the staff working directly for and reporting to the president, including West Wing staff and the president’s closest advisers), the National Security Council, and the Office of Management and Budget.” The EOP has a staff of about 1800, some political appointees, some not.
Notice second that the document has no date, no version number, no authors, no distribution list, and no glossary, despite being replete with acronyms. (Contrast the Playbook to the high-gloss “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza” (2006), which has a signed letter from President Bush to introduce it.) Next, the Playbook’s type and logos have the jaggies, as if it was printed on an inferior grade of inkjet printer. (Some of the inner pages are really bad.) Finally, the document is printed landscape-style, and if you look carefully at the top, you will see the circular indicators indicative of comb binding. In my experience, documents in such formats are often shared in meetings round a conference table. Not many are printed, and they don’t go outside the boundaries of the entity that produced them.
All these indications combine to lead one to the conclusion that the Playbook was meant for internal use in the EOP only. Why does this matter? Because in substance the plays in the Playbook — and this is not to take away from its excellence as content — are meant to help the Executive wrangle the interagency process at the Federal level, as well as the SLTT (States, Localities, and Tribes). But none of those entities have signed off on it (nor could they, given that the Playbook has no date or version information; what would they have been signing?) The Playbook has the plays, but it doesn’t have any players. All the players have to be acquired, and the field has to be playable. You may say that the former is the job of any administration. Indeed it is, and the Trump administration was bad at it, but Obama’s claim that “We literally left this White House a pandemic playbook” is, I suppose, true, but also not relevant. The Playbook may have been necessary. but it was certainly not sufficient. The use of the word “literally” is always such a tell.
Obama’s West Wing Brain (2):
Obama: “I spent 8 years cleaning up that mess the Republicans left me, and then I hand it over to Trump. 75 straight months of job growth. And all he did with it is give a tax cut to the people who didn’t need it, drive up the deficit in the process, now he wants to do it again” pic.twitter.com/m2iRiLhqHR
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 20, 2024
You spent eight years because after you got done servicing the FIRE sector, the recovery was the slowest on record. Do readers remember this chart:
Realignment and Legitimacy
“U.S. Agencies Fund, and Fight With, Elon Musk. A Trump Presidency Could Give Him Power Over Them” [New York Times]. “Elon Musk’s influence over the federal government is extraordinary, and extraordinarily lucrative. Mr. Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX, effectively dictates NASA’s rocket launch schedule. The Defense Department relies on him to get most of its satellites to orbit. His companies were promised $3 billion across nearly 100 different contracts last year with 17 federal agencies. His entanglements with federal regulators are also numerous and adversarial. His companies have been targeted in at least 20 recent investigations or reviews, including over the safety of his Tesla cars and the environmental damage caused by his rockets.” And: “Mr. Trump has vowed to make Mr. Musk head of a new “government efficiency commission” with the power to recommend wide-ranging cuts at federal agencies and changes to federal rules. Through a review of court filings, regulatory dockets and government contracting data, The New York Times has compiled an accounting of Mr. Musk’s multipronged business arrangements with the federal government, as well as the violations, fines, consent decrees and other inquiries federal agencies have ordered against his companies. Together, they show a deep web of relationships: Instead of entering this new role as a neutral observer, Mr. Musk would be passing judgment on his own customers and regulators.” • True and bad (I can’t understand why the guy can’t run a paint shop at Tesla, and yet SpaceX does so well). But am I really to believe that Musk is the only one? Billionaires don’t get to join the billionaire class by being neutral observers! See the photos:
I’m telling you: the scale of Soros’ intervention into this election is without precedent. He’s pushing every envelope: running the Harris field operation, buying votes with millions of dollars, flooding House races with cash.. pic.twitter.com/psMvmg6VLW
— Restitutor (@Restitutor_) October 20, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Lambert here: After so many years, things seem unnaturally calm; the only cloud on the horizon is Walgreen’s positivity possibly hitting bottom. We’ll have to see what happens in the Holiday Surge, starting next month (though it seems we dodged a “Back to School Surge.”
| Wastewater | |
| ★ This week[1] CDC October 5 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC October 12 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC October 12 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data October 18: | National [6] CDC September 28: |
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| Positivity | |
| ★ National[7] Walgreens October 21: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic October 5: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 30: | Variants[10] CDC September 30: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC October 12: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC October 12: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Good news!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). I see the “everything in greenish pastels” crowd has gotten to this chart.
[7] (Walgreens) A pause.
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). No XEC.
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists to vote Wednesday on new proposal to end the strike” [Seattle Times]. “The union has not recommended accepting or rejecting the offer but told its members it is ‘worthy of your consideration.’ A new vote that could end the strike is set for Wednesday. In an interview Saturday, Jon Holden, president of International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751, made clear he thinks this may be the best contract the union can get. ‘It’s our job to get the best agreement that we can. And that’s what we achieved,’ Holden said. ‘There’s a lot of positive things here … it would be irresponsible of us not to place it in front of our members.’” On pensions: “The new offer does not restore the traditional pension that Boeing took away 10 years ago, which many Machinists have demanded. ‘We weren’t able to achieve that. I understand those that have wanted their pension restored. The company just has not moved on that issue,’ said Holden [with a sigh of resignation]. ‘That’s the reason why we’re not recommending [the offer].’ Instead of restoring the defined-benefit pension, Boeing’s new proposal bumps up its increased contributions to the 401(k) retirement plan. Boeing, in the prior proposal, offered an automatic company contribution of 4% of total annual pay plus a match of employee contributions up to an additional 8%. Now it’s added a one-time $5,000 contribution to the retirement plan of each Machinist. And the new proposal adds one detail that will boost the pension payout for those veteran Machinists who have it. If this offer is accepted, those who were at the company when the pension was frozen will get a monthly pension of $105 per year of service before 2014, up from $95 currently.” • So that detail is “two-tier,” oh good. I’d still like to see a board seat for the union. And I’d like to see an expiration date of May 1, 2028 (unless this Holden dude wants to thumb his nose at the UAW). Handy chart:
BREAKING: Boeing $BA has reached a new tentative wage deal, up 35%, workers will now vote to end strike. pic.twitter.com/GItqboGawz
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 19, 2024
Manufacturing: “Voting by the Numbers: How demographics weigh in Boeing contract vote Wednesday” [Leeham News and Analysis]. “While the offer is much better than the original Tentative Agreement voted down on September 12 and the ‘Best and Final Offer’ Boeing floated a week later, approval by the membership is still in doubt. Comments on social media weigh heavily against approval…. With a major shift in demographics among the 33,000 members, opposition to the new offer may be stiff, and approval of this offer in doubt.” And: “Forty percent of the members are veterans who lost their pensions in 2014. Boeing dangled an increase in the pension benefit multiplier ($10 a month per year of service) that at most is worth $200/month to the most senior of them. This may be enough to peel off a few who are ready to retire and just holding out to see how much more they can squeeze out of Boeing. But the majority have saved for a three-month strike and will die on that pension hill. Half of the membership is less than six years on the job. About a quarter have less than two years. They’re going to be all over the map, depending on how successful they’ve been in finding temporary jobs. The ones with less than two years gain the least benefit from this contract (but also are the ones least prepared for a long strike). About a thousand people in this group will jump to max pay on ratification, because of some long-overdue changes in wage progression. They’re obvious yes votes. If this Under Six Years group splits 50-50 on the offer, it fails. If Boeing gets 60% of them to vote yes (which is likely the upper limit), the offer has a chance — but only if everything else breaks Boeing’s way. The smallest group (10%) has more than six years but less than 10 (so they’re at max pay but have no frozen pension benefit. If they vote 50-50 on the offer, it fails. If Boeing can get a majority of this group to support the offer, then the outcome is a toss-up.” And: “Boeing is already struggling to attract and retain high-quality new hires. .” • Does Boeing want to build airplanes that don’t fall out of the sky, or not?
Manufacturing: “Explained: What Is Boeing’s ‘Yellowstone Project’?” [Simply Flying]. “In the early 2000’s, American aircraft manufacturer Boeing began to consider a replacement for the 737 aircraft family. The first 737 flight was in 1967, and while the aircraft family had seen great success, it was time to create something new. This brought about the creation of the Yellowstone Project.” • In other word, Yellowstone was a project Boeing couldn’t, or wouldn’t, execute. Interesting timeline though.
Tech: A brief shining moment:
There are now papers showing that the migration of academic communities from Twitter to other social media sites mostly failed. But they never fully returned to Twitter either.
I wonder if we will ever see so many different communities interacting in the same online space again. pic.twitter.com/vupkg53IYU
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) September 8, 2024
Still happens to a degree with syndemics…
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 73 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 63 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 21 at 12:54:43 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 181. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Hard to believe the Rapture Index is going down. Do these people know something we don’t?
The 420
“Older Americans turn to marijuana for better sleep and pain relief: Here’s what to know” [FOX]. “A recent poll by the University of Michigan National Poll on Healthy Aging found that among people 50 years of age and older, around 21% said they have used a form of cannabis that contains the psychoactive compound THC at least once in the past year, and 12% use it on a monthly basis. Dr. Barbara Krantz, medical director of Older Adults Program, Withdrawal Management and Chronic Pain for Caron Treatment Centers in Florida, said her practice has seen a ‘significant uptick’ in the use of cannabis by individuals over the age of 50. ‘In our patient population at Caron, nearly all patients in our Older Adult Program have admitted to trying cannabis in some form,’ she told Fox News Digital. ‘So, it is very common.’” •
Not to entire the gender wars, but I think more men should dress well. I like this account because it explains how to do that:
Will share something about this suit. This pattern is what’s known as a gun club, which is a family of checked fabrics historically connected to hunting estates. You most commonly see it in tweeds, such as the photo on the right. pic.twitter.com/dRtgVaD6IV
— derek guy (@dieworkwear) October 21, 2024
Followed by a long and expert discussion of yarn, worsteds, and woolens.
Games
“Grieving parents discover disabled son’s incredible secret life on World of Warcraft after he died aged 25” [Daily Mail]. “Mats Steen suffered a debilitating muscular disease that kept him confined to his apartment – but after his death at age 25 his parents discovered his secret online life that filled him with joy. Trude and Robert Steen found out the Norwegian man had a popular and fulfilling social life through his personal blog and his online roleplaying in the video game World of Warcraft. The parents, and sister Mia, knew that Mats would spend hours online using special equipment to accommodate his disability. But until his death, his mom and dad believed his life had sadly been a lonely one. It was soon after his passing they began to receive hundreds of emails from strangers who seemed to know him extremely well… The first they knew of their son’s secret life came after they announcing his death on his online blog, on which there was an email address for users to contact the family. Mats’ parents and sister had been expecting a few replies but were not prepared for the reality as they were inundated by hundreds of strangers writing to them – also, Mats was known by a completely different name: Ibelin Redmoore. … Redmoore had built up an extensive network of friends over the years and had become known for his kindness and empathy.”
Department of Feline Felicity
Not quite:
— WholesomeMemes (@WholesomeMeme) October 21, 2024
Cat’s might; but only if they really wanted to. That’s what I like about them.
Gallery
The joyful brightness of fresh snow:
Claude Monet’s winter paintings pic.twitter.com/GclN8f1RjH
— impressionism (@allontanarsio) October 20, 2024
“Listen Here: Scientists reveal the haunting sounds of Earth’s magnetic field flipping” [Study Finds]. “In a groundbreaking project, scientists from the Technical University of Denmark and the German Research Centre for Geosciences have transformed data from the European Space Agency’s Swarm satellite mission into an auditory experience that’s both fascinating and slightly unnerving. The star of this cosmic concert? The Laschamp event, a brief but dramatic period when Earth’s magnetic field did the unthinkable – it completely reversed direction. During this geomagnetic rollercoaster, our planet’s magnetic shield weakened to a mere 5% of its current strength, leaving Earth more vulnerable to cosmic rays than ever before. ‘The team used data from ESA’s Swarm satellites, as well as other sources, and used these magnetic signals to manipulate and control a sonic representation of the core field. The project has certainly been a rewarding exercise in bringing art and science together,’ explains Klaus Nielsen, a musician and project supporter from the Technical University of Denmark, in a 2022 media release after researchers first converted the magnetic field into sound. The result is a soundscape that blends familiar natural noises like creaking wood and falling rocks with otherworldly tones, creating an audio journey that’s both familiar and alien.”
Wukchumni writes: “Gem Lake in the eastern Sierra.”
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