By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, we will have a Live Blog of tonight’s Vice-Presidential debate. Doors open at 8:30pm ET; the debate proper starts at 9:00pm.
I also had a scheduling debacle, so I’ll be playing catchup for a bit, here. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Return to the mimidae!
Blue Mockingbird, Yecora, Km 261, Sonora, Mexico.
In Case You Might Miss…
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Less than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
* * * Once again, doors open for the Live Blog at 8:30pm! Personally, I expect this debate to be more interesting than the Presidential debate, given the logorrhea of the previous combatants. But Vance has written a book, and Walz’s wife, also a teacher, had 40 students on their high school debate team, so maybe something rubbed off.
“JD Vance doesn’t think he needs debate prep to defeat Tim Walz” [Politico]. “‘We have well developed views on public policy so we don’t have to prepare that much,’ Vance said in a Teamsters press call on Wednesday morning. ‘We feel a lot more confident and frankly, you don’t have to prepare if you don’t have to hide what you say.’ His statement was in many ways exactly why Republicans — and especially Trump — continue to support him: He’s pithy, plainspoken and gets spirited with the media. And unlike Trump, he stays relentlessly on message and is known as an agile debater.”
“Want to Check That Fact? For V.P. Debate Viewers, Just Scan the Code” [New York Times]. “CBS News, host of Tuesday’s vice-presidential matchup between Senator JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz, is using technology to try something new. A QR code — the checkerboard-like, black-and-white box that can be scanned by a smartphone — will appear onscreen for long stretches of the CBS telecast. Viewers who scan the code will be directed to the CBS News website, where a squad of about 20 CBS journalists will post fact-checks of the candidates’ remarks in real time. The code will appear only on CBS; viewers who tune in on a different channel will not see it. (Nearly every major network will simulcast the debate, starting at 9 p.m. Eastern.) But it is a novel approach to guide viewers, already accustomed to watching TV while hovering over a smartphone or laptop, to supplemental journalistic material elsewhere.” • Would be nice if users could select from a menu of QR codes, but whatever.
* * * NC: “Helene adds stress to election in North Carolina” [Axios (SlayTheSmaugs)]. “North Carolina, one of the most important battlegrounds in the race for president, is at the center of the destruction from Hurricane Helene. Beyond the physical and emotional toll of the storm, Helene suddenly has created massive hurdles for voters and election officials just 35 days before the Nov. 5 election. ‘Voting won’t be a priority for a lot of people,’ said Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina…. Early in-person voting begins in North Carolina on Oct. 17, a deadline that may be difficult for officials in some parts of the state to meet, especially if any of their polling locations were damaged or destroyed. ‘There are small staffs in a lot of these places whose attention is obviously going to be elsewhere,’ [Seth Morris, an election law expert and associate at Parker Poe in North Carolina] said ‘[Many] won’t be able to go to work this week and prepare for early voting and to handle the mail-ballots that are coming in.’” • Confirming, or at least supporting, my views expressed here yesterday. This too–
NC: “How Helene’s destruction could affect voting in North Carolina’s election” [News & Observer]. “In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene’s destruction in Western North Carolina, concerns have emerged about whether residents affected by the storm will be able to cast their ballots in the November election. Disruptions to the postal service, destruction of polling places, missing or damaged IDs and more could all pose challenges to voters with only 36 days left until the election. ‘This is all a cascading series of disasters,’ Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County Board of Elections, said.” • I should have added that mail-in ballots would be disrupted; fifty lashes with a wet noodle for Lambert. NOTE: Blue Buncombe County, home of Asheville, is the only county named.
PA: “Poll shows a tight race in Pennsylvania, with warning signs for Harris among older voters” [Politico]. “Harris is winning 49 percent of likely voters, compared with 47 percent for Trump and 2 percent for other candidates, the poll done by a bipartisan team for AARP found. Three percent are undecided…. Biden was down 5 percentage points overall in that April survey. Among voters aged 18 to 49, he was behind by 1 point; she is now ahead by 14. He was losing independents by 6 points; she is winning them by 9. With Democrats, women, suburban voters, rural voters and even voters without a college degree, she is outperforming Biden. There is a major voting bloc, though, among which she has slipped: seniors. Harris is losing voters aged 65 and older by 7 points, compared with 1 point for Biden. ‘Harris’ biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,’ said Republican pollster Bob Ward, whose firm, Fabrizio Ward, helped conduct the AARP survey and also polls for the Trump campaign. The economy appears to be a big reason why older voters prefer Trump to Harris. For voters aged 50 and up who ranked inflation and high prices as a top issue, Trump has a 54-point lead.” • Older voters are the most reliable, too.
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC September 23 | Last Week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC September 28 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21 |
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| New York[5] New York State, data September 27: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens September 30: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC September 9: | Variants[10] CDC September 9: |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.
[10] (Travelers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment Situation: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job openings rose by 329,000 to 8.040 million in August 2024 from an upwardly revised 7.711 million in July and above market expectations of 7.655 million.”
Employment Situation: “United States Job Quits” [Trading Economics]. “The number of job quits in the US fell to 3.084 million in August of 2024 from the downwardly revised 3.243 million in the previous month, the lowest since August of 2020.”
Supply Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US jumped to 58.6 in September 2024 from 56.4 in August, pointing to the highest growth rate in the logistics sector in two years. The overall index has now increased for ten consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing.” • Effect of ILA strike not mentioned.
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 47.3 in September 2024 from a preliminary of 47, but remained the lowest since June 2023. It marked the third consecutive month of contraction, with both output and new orders falling sharply due to weakened demand and political uncertainty.”
Supply Chain: “East and Gulf coast ports strike, with ILA longshoremen walking off job from New England to Texas, stranding billions in trade” [CNBC]. “Approximately 50,000 ILA union longshoremen were walking off the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports from New England to Texas starting at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday after failing to reach an agreement with ports ownership on a new contract, the union’s first strike since 1977. Between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly move through the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. The International Longshoremen’s Association, the largest maritime union in North America, rejected an offer from the port management group USMX on Monday that included a wage hike over six years near 50%.”
Supply Chain: “White House left with few good options as dockworkers walk out” [CNN]. “For weeks, Cabinet-level officials across an array of agencies have been keeping close tabs on the negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and a consortium of companies managing ports along the East and Gulf coasts. White House officials on Friday met with representatives from the consortium, the US Maritime Corporation, to encourage the association to stay at the negotiating table. When it comes to brokering a potential deal, labor experts say the White House has just two tools: Using the bully pulpit and invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, which would force the longshore workers to get back on the job. President Joe Biden has sent a clear message that he has no plans to do the latter. ‘No,’ Biden told reporters Sunday when asked whether he would intervene in a potential strike. ‘Because it’s collective bargaining, and I don’t believe in Taft-Hartley.’ Breaking the strike would be a politically dangerous move for Biden as his vice president, Kamala Harris, runs to succeed him in the Oval Office. Without taking that move, there’s not much else the White House can do.” • Too bad about the railroad workers, but it wasn’t an election year.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Mulls $10B Stock Sale To Shore Up Finances” [Investopedia]. “Boeing is reportedly considering selling up to $10 billion in stock to boost its revenue as it deals with a strike by its machinists. However, Boeing likely won’t raise equity for at least a month, … as the company looks to end the strike by reaching a deal with the union and get a clearer estimate of its financial impact. The plane maker was already in a difficult financial position before the strike, after burning through billions to address a variety of issues, including mechanical problems with its planes and a legal settlement with the government related to two deadly crashes…. Shares of Boeing were 2% higher at $154.98 in early trading Tuesday, though even with Tuesday’s gains, they’ve lost over 40% of their value since the start of the year.” • Seems going to a lot of trouble just to bust the unions.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Needs to Take a Cue From UPS and Pay Its Strikers” [Bloomberg]. “Boeing Co.’s labor negotiators should have paid more attention to how Carol Tomé, the chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., handled talks with its union last year. UPS workers were itching to strike, and the company was inevitably going to have to give hefty raises. Instead of digging in over a couple of percentage points on the salary increases, risking a strike and creating more animosity with its workforce, Tomé relented to the union’s demands. The higher labor costs have squeezed margins, and investors registered their dismay with a 27% drop in the share price since the tentative deal was announced in July last year. UPS customers, though, were grateful that Tomé avoided the disruption a strike would have caused. Tomé’s calculation was that even if she pushed the negotiations to the point of a strike, the company would have ended up in the same place — a big payout and costly changes such as adding air conditioning to new delivery vehicles. The only difference would have been the worker ill will and angry customers that a strike would have provoked. Automakers, on the other hand, let labor talks break down, and they ended up agreeing to record pay increases after a costly six-week strike. Boeing has dug in its heels with striking machinists who have shut down factories for more than a week, and it’s not working. The planemaker will more than likely have to meet workers’ demands to end this damaging and costly strike. Customers are upset that the delays in plane deliveries will worsen. Suppliers are left in the dark about how much they should cut back on production, which hurts their workers and finances. Repairing the culture of quality and safety on the factory floor is in jeopardy. The strike is only accelerating Boeing’s cash burn, spurring Moody’s Ratings to consider cutting the company’s debt rating.” •
Manufacturing: “Over 40 Airlines Could Be Flying Boeing Jets With Risky Rudder Parts” [Jalopnik]. “The National Transportation Safety Board warned over 40 foreign airlines on Tuesday that their Boeing 737 planes may be fitted with potentially dangerous rudder components. The agency identified 271 parts that could fail and jam the rudder control system. The NTSB discovered the issue while investigating a February landing incident involving a United Airlines flight arriving at Newark Liberty International Airport.” • Whoops.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 68 Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 66 (Hreed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 1 at 1:46:30 PM ET.
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans:
Long before cinema, there was “cinematic” painting.
These paintings are centuries old, but look like stills from a high-budget movie epic.
Here are some you haven’t seen before — that will blow your mind… 🧵 pic.twitter.com/wdltpBWHY3
— Culture Critic (@Culture_Crit) September 27, 2024
“Do All Problems Have Technical Fixes?” [Communications of the ACM]. “The unspoken foundational claim is not that computing technology confers certain benefits, a pragmatic claim, and a matter of fact, but that it carries normative value, that it’s good; in particular, our tech is good, and therefore should be out there in the world. This is tricky.” • By Betteridge’s Law….
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CC:
CC writes: “Noticed this on the post at the bottom of the steps at my daughter’s house. Momma Spider on the post and her bunch(? Highly technical description), just below her above the handrail.”
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