ECONOMY

2:00PM Water Cooler 1/8/2025 | naked capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Powhatan State Park, Powhatan, Virginia, United States. “This bird was singing from the same perch at 7:00 when I arrived; this recording was made at 10:00. It was still singing when I left.”

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. LA Palisades Fire: This is fine.
  2. Trump’s pivotto the Northern Hemisphere.
  3. More weirdness with the Vegas Tesla explosion.

* * *

  • “FBI Is Still Hiding Details of Russiagate”: Aaron Maté.
  • Look for the Helpers

    This has happened to me:

    And then I paid it forward as well. Readers?

    * * *

    My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of there (“Helpers” in the subject line). In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

    Politics

    “So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

    * * *

    Trump Transition

    “Trump Imagines New Sphere of U.S. Influence Stretching From Panama to Greenland” [Wall Street Journal]. “President-elect Donald Trump’s calls to take control of Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal reflect his fascination with a 21st-century version of an old idea—that great powers should carve out spheres of influence and defend their economic and security interests by imposing their will on smaller neighbors. In a press conference Tuesday, Trump outlined a second-term foreign policy agenda that rests not on global alliances and free trade but on economic coercion and unilateral military might, even against allies. With the Panama Canal and Greenland, he suggested he could use force to take them over. With Canada, he suggested he would hit the U.S.’s northern neighbor with extreme tariffs, leaving it no choice but to submit to annexation. ‘Canada and the United States, that would really be something,’ Trump said. ‘You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better for national security.’

    Taking control of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal through military or economic force would be a dramatic departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy as pursued by presidents of both parties.” • This leaves out Mexico, oddly. I’ll have more in a bit, but at first glance, I would speculate that Trump knows he’s got to feed his rabid dog — the national security establishment — some meat. Otherwise, he will be its meat. Where is the meat to be found? Europe? Clearly not; Ukraine is lost. The Middle East? Letting them kill each other is one thing; boots on the ground are another. The pivot to Asia? With what? That leaves — and this would make James Monroe very happy — the north American hemisphere. Also, it may even be that Trump doesn’t like to get people killed, and (modulo Mexico), seizing one vassal’s territory (Greenland), invading Panama (we’ve done it once), and working on splitting the Canadian Federation looks a lot less gruesome than a war on the Pacific Rim, say. Who knows? Could be just a headfake, though Trump did mention Greenland in 2020.

    “Fetterman compares Trump’s Greenland talk to Louisiana Purchase” [The Hill]. “‘There’s a lot of talk about Greenland, for example, and … there’s a lot of freak-outs and of course, I would never support taking it by force,’ Fetterman said. He continued, noting it would be a ‘responsible conversation’ to discuss acquisition, including ‘just buying it out.’ ‘If anyone thinks that’s bonkers, it’s like, well, remember the Louisiana Purchase?’ Fetterman said.” • Is he wrong?

    Lawfare

    “Justice Department says it plans to release only part of special counsel’s Trump report for now” [Associated Press]. “The Justice Department said Wednesday that it intends to release special counsel Jack Smith’s findings on Donald Trump’s efforts to undo the results of the 2020 presidential election but will keep under wraps for now the rest of the report focused on the president-elect’s hoarding of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate… The announcement lessens the likelihood that the report on the classified documents investigation, which of all inquiries against Trump had once seemed to carry the greatest legal threat, would ever be released given that the Trump Justice Department almost certainly will not make the document public even after the case against Nauta and De Oliveira is resolved.” And the norms: “Smith’s team abandoned both cases in November after Trump’s presidential victory, citing Justice Department policy that prohibits the federal prosecutions of sitting presidents. Justice Department regulations call for special counsels appointed by the attorney general to submit a confidential report at the conclusion of their investigations. It’s then up to the attorney general to decide what to make public.”

    Realignment and Legitimacy

    About Shawn Ryan, the “whistleblower” who released Livelsberger’s email manifesto:

    Shot:

    Chaser:

    Saying “the FBI confirmed…” is a lot like saying “A Ukrainian spokesman confirmed….”

    * * *

    “Nation’s anger at insurance ‘injustice’” [China Daily]. “[Rosemary:] “‘My generation has discussed about not just what violence looks like when somebody comes up at you with a gun and shoots you, but more about economic violence. If you’re dying at the hands of somebody else according to a company policy, that doesn’t make it any less violent,’ she said.” • Interestingly, I can’t find the “Rosemary” quote anywhere.

    Syndemics

    “I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

    * * *

    Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

    Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

    Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

    Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

    Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

    Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

    Stay safe out there!

    * * *

    TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

    Wastewater
    This week[1] CDC December 30 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

    Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 28

    Hospitalization
    New York[5] New York State, data January 7: National [6] CDC Janurary 2, 2005:

    Positivity
    National[7] Walgreens January 6: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4:

    Travelers Data
    Positivity[9] CDC December 16: Variants[10] CDC December 16

    Deaths
    Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

    LEGEND

    1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

    2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

    NOTES

    [1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

    [2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

    [3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

    [4] (ED) A little uptick.

    [5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.

    [6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

    [7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

    [8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

    [9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

    [10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

    [11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

    [12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

    Stats Watch

    Employment situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 from the previous week to 201,000 in the week ending January 4, the lowest in eleven months and contrasting with the expected increase to 218,000.”

    Vehicle Sales: “United States Total Vehicle Sales” [Trading Economics]. “Total Vehicle Sales in the United States increased to 16.80 Million in December from 16.65 Million in November of 2024.”

    * * *

    Manufacturing: “Checks find no issues with Boeing 737-800 jets in S’pore after fatal Jeju Air crash” [Straits Times]. “Checks by the Singapore authorities in the wake of the deadly Jeju Air crash in December have found no anomalies or reliability issues in the fleet of Boeing 737-800 aircraft here, said Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat on Jan 8. This is the same aircraft model as the plane that smashed into a concrete structure housing navigational equipment at the end of a runway at Muan International Airport in South Korea, on Dec 29, 2024, killing 179 people on board.”

    Manufacturing: “Problematic parts discovered in several Boeing passenger planes” [KING5]. “On Wednesday, internal Boeing sources told KING 5 there was a slowdown in Renton’s 737-MAX assembly line because of defective electrical junction boxes. Executive Director of Boeing’s engineering union Ray Goforth confirmed in a statement that there was a problem with the junction boxes and it slowed or stopped production. However, he was unaware of how significant the slowdown was. The MAX passenger plane has miles of electrical wiring and while it’s unclear which junction box is impacted, Aviation Expert John Nance said fixing the problem is imperative. ‘If it is a generic situation with a number of these boxes being found to be less than they should then it has to be addressed, there’s no question about it,’ said Nance. Boeing describes the items as non-conforming components and said despite this problem, production continues in the Renton factory.”

    Tech: Enshittification proceeds apace:


    * * *

    Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 33 Fear (previous close: 35 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 27 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed).

    Gallery

    I wonder why the front page does not have the look of print:

    Every so often I purchase a (paper) Financial Times and luxuriate in reading it. The experience is far, far superior to anything online, and the layout of the pages — something we’ve had centuries of experience doing, after all — moves the eye to serendipitous encounters in a way that the web does not.

    Zeitgeist Watch

    Yikes (1):

    Yikes (2):

    If the fire makes it down off the mountain:

    Not a parking lot:

    My first thought is that people took their car keys with them, so their cars couldn’t be moved, hence the bulldozer; but maybe there are no car keys anymore, just plastic fobs that would melt in the heat. Readers? (Shows you how much I drive, or am driven.)

    The sharing economy does its part:

    Class warfare:

    Blast from the past:

    Just in case anybody thinks Democrats don’t hate the working class.

    Class Warfare

    “Ski patrollers reach deal to end strike at Utah’s Park City Mountain Resort” [Associated Press]. “Ski patrollers at the biggest U.S. ski resort have reached a deal with Utah’s Park City Mountain Resort to end a strike that put a wrench in operations during the busy holiday season and into the new year. A joint statement released by the executive board of the ski patrollers’ union said a vote was scheduled for Wednesday on an agreement ‘that addresses both parties’ interests and will end the current strike. Everyone looks forward to restoring normal resort operations and moving forward together as one team,’ it said. The deal would run through April 2027. No other details about it were released. About 200 ski patrollers went on strike on Dec. 27 over wages they said were too low for high living costs.”

    News of the Wired

    “The Evaporative Cooling Effect in Social Network” [Bumblebee Labs]. From the Abstract: “The Evaporative Cooling Effect describes the phenomenon that high value contributors leave a community because they cannot gain something from it, which leads to the decrease of the quality of the community. Since the people most likely to join a community are those whose quality is below the average quality of the community, these newcomers are very likely to harm the quality of the community. With the expansion of community, it is very hard to maintain the quality of the community.” • Hmm.

    * * *

    Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From SV:

    SV writes: “Even a nearsighted Squirrel finds a pumpkin once in a while.”

    * * *

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    About Lambert Strether

    Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

    To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.













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