ECONOMY

2:00PM Water Cooler 1/3/2025 | naked capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

More soon! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Washburn University Vicinity, Shawnee, Kansas, United States. Busy, busy.

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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. New Covid charts drop, with Christmas hospitalization up in New York.
  2. Mangione: murder and social murder.
  3. Teen Vogue on “salting.”

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Transition

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There is a cui bono buried in this statement:

Cui bono being the statement one should always ask, even if the answer is not always clear. UPDATE: Or, upon rereading this today, a veiled accusation (“You and I both know why you won’t investigate this”)/

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Luigi Mangione’s Apologists Are Undermining the Pursuit of Social Justice” [Xavier Symons, The Public Discourse]. The journal of the Witherspoon Institute. Fascinating lead: “I am an ethics professor, and in my moral philosophy classes, I often appeal to the universal belief in the immorality of murder to show why moral relativism—the view that morality is contextual and subjective—is mistaken. My expectation until now has been that students will agree with me. After witnessing the public response to the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, allegedly by Luigi Mangione, I am no longer that confident.” • Given the sort of student who self-selects into Witherspoon, that’s pretty amazing. Symons, at least in this post, doesn’t seem to think that social murder, unlike murder, can be categorized within any system of ethics. Feels kinda like mainstream macro….

“Your letters: Mangione family, religious freedom and an angry Advent” [Dr. Therese Craione Bertsch, National Catholic Reporter]. “In reading the story of Luigi’s life and family we are reminded of the essential vulnerability we all have. Luigi perceived that he could act on behalf of the oppressed by shooting someone who represented untold suffering. What sparked the dark turn from community social action to individual violence we may yet discover. Whatever the case, no one is invulnerable to the darkness. This event reveals the hopelessness Americans feel as the wealth produced from their labor travels to the millionaires and health services are held captive by insurers. It is scandalous usury, and it oppresses us in much the same way as interest rates and school tuition. This article provided a space to recall we owe Luigi’s family a great deal, and we feel the profound grief for the loss of a young executive’s life who was socialized in a capitalist system that directs all efforts to profit and transaction, objectifies human beings and is at the heart of all of violence.”

“‘New York Post Presents: Luigi Mangione Monster or Martyr?’ gives inside look into shocking UnitedHealthcare murder” [New York Post]. • The movie really seems to be about the Post newsroom, which is pretty lively place. This is good, because we need more newsrooms; individual contributors are not enough.

“Mangione Tragedy: Pain, Isolation, and the Survival Response” [Psychology Today]. “Feeling trapped, especially by pain, causes a physiological threat response leading to anger. In an angry state the higher levels of function in the neocortex are downregulated. Luigi Mangione was not only suffering but not shown a way out. Breaking free from chronic pain is not difficult and is what makes his story especially tragic.” • Not so sure about that last claim, though.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Look for the Helpers

I don’t like Hoerger’s model, but this is very good suggestion:

Transmission: Nasal Sprays

Makes you wonder why the United States remains so primitive:

Dr. Leshan does not say, but the spray is Covitrap (study here). It does not seem to be available outside Thailand, though international marketing was attempted in 2022 (just another mark of insanity in the West’s approach to Covid).

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: A little more orange and red around Ohio; no rise at JFK, EWR, ORD, LAX. A post-Christmas jump in New York hospitalization. I’m guessing it’s not the result of LB.1 from travelers because JFK and EWR wastewater is static. So I think it’s travel from upstate, where they have been having a little surge of their own:

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC December 30 Last week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC December 21 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC December 28

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data December 31: National [6] CDC Janurary 2, 2005:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens December 30: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic December 28:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC December 16: Variants[10] CDC December 16

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 20: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 20:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slow and small but steady increase.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 points from the previous month to 49.3 in December of 2024, ahead of market expectations of 48.4. The result reflected the softest pace of contraction in the US manufacturing sector since the 50.3 recorded in March, which was the sole period of expansion in the industry since September of 2022.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing is making yet another promise to do better. Can the prodigal child finally return?” [FirstPost]. “In its latest announcement, Boeing highlighted investments in workforce training, including enhanced programs for mechanics and quality inspectors. It also pointed to efforts to simplify production processes and reduce defects, particularly in the assembly of its 737 aircraft, a model that has been at the center of many controversies. The timing of Boeing’s statement is notable. Sunday (January 5) marks the anniversary of the near catastrophe aboard Alaska Airlines Flight 1282, a stark reminder of the company’s struggles. While Boeing has acknowledged its shortcomings and pledged reforms, it remains to be seen if these efforts will restore confidence in the once-dominant aerospace giant.” • Boeing’s efforts seem, in large part, to “inspect quality into the product.” But Deming argues that can’t be done.

Manufacturing: “Outgoing FAA Chief Says Boeing’s Safety Turnaround ‘Not a One-Year Project’” [Investopedia]. “Approaching one year since the Alaska Airlines (ALK) incident that saw a door panel detach from a Boeing (BA) plane in midair, outgoing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) head Mike Whitaker said the plane maker’s safety turnaround plan is “not a one-year project.’ Whitaker wrote in a Thursday blog post that the agency’s ‘enhanced oversight is here to stay’ ahead of his departure from the FAA when U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated later this month. ‘But this is not a one-year project,’ Whitaker wrote. ‘. That will require sustained effort and commitment from Boeing, and unwavering scrutiny on our part.’” • Hmm.

Manufacturing: “This Is What Whales Are Betting On Boeing” [Benzinga]. “Whales with a lot of money to spend have taken a noticeably bearish stance on Boeing. Looking at options history for Boeing we detected 34 trades. If we consider the specifics of each trade, it is accurate to state that 35% of the investors opened trades with bullish expectations and 52% with bearish.” • Hmm.

Manufacturing: Maybe Tesla’s stupid touch screen is dangerous, besides being stupid:


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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 26 Fear (previous close: 27 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 33 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 2 at 1:24:36 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

This is a terrific thread on the account’s Russian studies course, but it’s long. Excerpting from it:

Narrowing the focus to Covid:

Here is W.H. Auden’s “The Fall of Rome.” Not sure about those reindeer, I gotta admit. (I could have filed this under Elite Maleficence, in the Syndemics section, but the implications seem to be (even) broader.

Class Warfare

“What Is Salting, the Organizing Tactic Spicing Up the Labor Movement?” [Kim Kelly, Teen Vogue]. “The resurgence of the American labor movement is being led in no small part by a cohort of young, diverse, fired-up workers around the country. Union density remains embarrassingly low overall, but last month the National Labor Relations Board, or NLRB, released some genuinely inspiring numbers that suggest the perceived upswing in union activity is more than just a vibe. During the 2024 fiscal year, which ended in September, the number of union petitions filed jumped 27% compared with 2023 — and was more than double what the agency received in 2021. Why does this matter? Basically, filing these petitions is a concrete sign that more people are trying to unionize their workplaces… This new generation of organizers is embracing all sorts of strategies, including one of the oldest tactics in the pro-union handbook: salting. Salting is an organizing tactic in which a person gets a job at a specific workplace with the goal of unionizing their coworkers. This kind of shop-floor organizing has a long history within the labor movement, and was once so common it was thoroughly unremarkable; if you were a young worker with socialist or progressive ideas in, say, the early 1900s, it was the most normal thing in the world to start talking to your coworkers about unionizing as soon as you’d learned their names.” • It’s great that Teen Vogue has a labor beat, but why only Teen Vogue?

News of the Wired

I am not feeling wired today.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From KM:

KM writes: “My morning run at the local park offered me this striking view yesterday. We had our first, much needed rainfall since back in late September overnight and it felt like all the colors had been washed away with the rain- but this golden hued maple tree is hanging on and from my view from the trail, it looked like a golden arched portal into Narnia.” Wow. I wish I could do landscapes (like this one).

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered.

To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.













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