Bird Song of the Day
Brown Thrasher, Lake Wales; Bok Sanctuary, Florida, United States. From 1963!
In Case You Might Miss…
- Trump strategy.
- Andreessen predicts AI-driven wage crash (and that’s a good thing).
- Ortberg soothes the analysts.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Energy in the executive:
“Trump: We’re Forging A New Political Majority That’s Shattering The New Deal Coalition” [RealClearPolitics]. President Donald Trump speaks at the House Republican Issues Conference at the Trump National Doral Miami Resort: “Together, we’re forging a new political majority that’s shattering and replacing Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition, which dominated American politics for over 100 years…. If we do our job over the next 21 months, not only will House Republicans be reelected and expand our majority in 2026, we will cement a national governing coalition that will preserve American freedom for generations to come. There has never been anything like what’s happened in politics in the last few years.” • This, it seems to me, is the name of the game: Party (hence class) power. Presidential power is important, too, but which is more important? Party power, obviously, since without Party power a Democrat Administration could take over in 2028 and use all this “dictatorial” power for its own ends. Credit MAGA and Trump for understanding this, very much unlike the RINOs.
“Trump’s Dictatorial Theory of Presidential Power – What the Executive Orders, in the Aggregate, Tell Us” [JustSecurity]. “On issue after issue, Trump claims that the Constitution directly empowers him to take certain actions, without any authorization by Congress and in the face of contrary statutes. The idea that the Constitution directly confers certain powers on the President is, by itself, neither new nor controversial. Yet in many of these orders, Trump is not simply asserting an inherent constitutional power to act. He is claiming a power to act in ways that clearly conflict with existing federal statutes. That is, he is asserting a constitutional prerogative to ignore, disregard, or even openly violate federal laws that are inconsistent with his policy agenda. Assertions of that general sort have been made in the past, and it is clear that the Constitution does confer on the President some exclusive powers that Congress may not regulate or restrict. Examples include the President’s power to veto proposed legislation, to grant pardons, to remove high-ranking executive officers he has appointed, and to recognize foreign governments. But these are the exceptions, not the rule. As Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett put it in her concurring opinion in the Trump immunity case, ‘the Constitution does not vest every exercise of executive power in the President’s sole discretion. … Congress has concurrent authority over many Government functions, and it may sometimes use that authority to regulate the President’s official conduct.’ Chief Justice John Roberts’ majority opinion in that case was sloppy and ill-reasoned in many respects, but neither he nor anyone else on the Court disagreed with Justice Barrett on this basic point. Indeed, Roberts relied heavily on Justice Robert Jackson’s concurring opinion in Youngstown Sheet and Tube Co. v. Sawyer, the steel seizure case. There, Jackson famously emphasized that presidential assertions of power to contravene federal law ‘must be scrutinized with caution, for what is at stake is the equilibrium established by our constitutional system.’ — regardless of whether the context is one of foreign affairs or national emergency. It is as though Trump is reprising his claim from his 2016 nomination acceptance speech that he alone can address the vital needs of the nation, but extending it to say that he alone has a mandate to suspend the law in pursuit of his goals.” • User tik-tok and birthright citizenship as examples. This is well worth a read (and the fact that material of this clarity is coming from the spook-adjacent lawfare community makes me want to hurl.
“The Strategy Behind Trump’s Policy Blitz” [The Atlantic]. “The staff was still setting up dinner on Mar-a-Lago’s outdoor patio on a balmy early-January evening when Donald Trump sat down. He was surrounded by several top advisers who would soon join him in the West Wing and who wanted to get his input before his attention shifted to his wealthy guests and Palm Beach club members. Susie Wiles, the incoming chief of staff, led the conversation, listing some of the dozens of executive orders that had been teed up for Trump’s signature once he reclaimed the presidency. She wanted to talk about sequencing, according to a Trump adviser present at the meeting, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. How would he like to stagger the orders over the first few weeks back in office? ‘No,’ Trump replied, this person told me. ‘I want to sign as many as possible as soon as we show up.’ ‘Day one,’ he said.’ Indeed. And: “Trump’s ubiquity is also a deliberate strategy, several of his aides and allies told me. Part of the point is to send a message to the American people that their self-declared ‘favorite’ president is getting things done. The person at the Palm Beach meeting and another Trump adviser, who also requested anonymity to describe private conversations, told me that the White House’s flood of orders and news is also designed to disorient already despairing Democratic foes, leaving them so battered that they won’t be able to mount a cohesive opposition.” • Certainly Trump is sending the “getting things done” message; the contrast to the molasses-brained Biden Administration is instructive. But “cohesive opposition” from Democrats? I think Trump’s clear election win foreclosed 2017-style resistance, for good or ill.
* * * “Top USAID career staff placed on immediate leave” [Politico]. “The Trump administration has ordered dozens of top career employees of the U.S. Agency for International Development to go on administrative leave, according to six people told of the decision…. The decision appears to affect nearly every career staffer who holds a top leadership role at the agency, at least in Washington — around 60 officials, the current and former officials said. The cuts have left many offices within the agency entirely devoid of senior non-political leadership. The entire cadre of leaders who run USAID’s bureau for global health, for example, was put on leave, according to two of the officials. ‘This is a huge morale hit,’ said a former senior Trump administration official who was also told of the move. ‘This is the leadership of the agency. This is like taking out all the generals. I don’t know what they hope to accomplish by it.’” • Insofar as they’re spooks, I’m not crying.
“Trump Administration Halts H.I.V. Drug Distribution in Poor Countries” [New York Times]. The deck: “PEPFAR’s computer systems also are being taken offline, a sign that the program may not return, as Republican critics had hoped.” More: “The Trump administration has instructed organizations in other countries to stop disbursing H.I.V. medications purchased with U.S. aid, even if the drugs have already been obtained and are sitting in local clinics. The directive is part of a broader freeze on foreign aid initiated last week. It includes the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, the global health program started by George W. Bush that is credited with saving more than 25 million lives worldwide. The administration had already moved to stop PEPFAR funding from moving to clinics, hospitals and other organizations in low-income countries. Appointments are being canceled, and patients are being turned away from clinics, according to people with knowledge of the situation who feared retribution if they spoke publicly. Many people with H.I.V. are facing abrupt interruptions to their treatment. But most federal officials are also under strict orders not to communicate with external partners, leading to confusion and anxiety, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.”
“Trump Administration Payment Freeze May Delay Money For Critical Preschool Program” [HuffPo]. “The online system that distributes federal money to Head Start programs is warning providers of upcoming delays, apparently because of the Trump administration’s sweeping review of federal spending. A message about the possible delays appeared this morning, as Head Start providers were logging on to file for their next distributions. HuffPost obtained a screenshot from an official at an early childhood advocacy organization; an official at a second advocacy group then confirmed hearing it about it from providers. The message says that “Due to Executive Orders regarding potentially unallowable grant payments, PMS [the payment system] is taking additional measures to process payments. Reviews of applicable programs and payments will result in delays and/or rejections of payments.’ It’s not clear whether the message appeared for all providers nationwide, or just some.”
2028
“Amy Walter: You’re Not Hearing A Unified Outcry Among Democrats About Deportations In Major Cities” [Amy Walter, RealClearPolitics]. “I think the most important thing for Democrats to realize, though, is they’re in the minority. When you’re out of power, you are out of power. And the reality is they now can really just simply react to what is happening based on what Republicans are doing. And their strategy going forward in many ways is going to be a reaction to what the Republican Party did. Four years from now or three years from now or a year from now when the presidential race really begins, that’s when the Democratic messaging really begins. Who do Democrats want to be? What do they want their message to be? We don’t have an opposition party leader in this country like they do in so many other countries. It’s really the nominee of the party who becomes that messenger. And that is going to be a long time from now.” • Another way of saying this is that right now there’s an enormous power vacuum in the Democrat Party. And (a) nobody is stepping in to fill it, perhaps because (b) they would have to bypass the tired and corrupt Democrat apparatus to do it, and in any case (c) the only way forward for the Democrat Party is to abandon or at least put in its place its current base in the PMC, which lacks and has lacked the power to win elections on any principled basis, let alone govern (as Stoller keeps complaining, corrrectly). Three tall orders!
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Lambert here: Everything’s gone dark except for trusty New York State hospitalization (daily), Walgreen’s positivity (weekly), and the Cleveland Clinic? Readers, do you have any suggestions about alternatives at state level? Thank you! How I wish we had Biobot back….
| Wastewater | |
| This week[1] CDC January 13 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): |
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| Variants [3] CDC January 18 | Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 11 |
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| Hospitalization | |
| ★ New York[5] New York State, data January 27: | National [6] CDC January 24: |
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| Positivity | |
| National[7] Walgreens January 27: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 18: |
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| Travelers Data | |
| Positivity[9] CDC December 30: | Variants[10] CDC December 30 |
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| Deaths | |
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 11: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 11: |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) A little uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Manufacturing: “Boeing Shares Surge by 6% Despite Difficult Year Marked by Losses and Challenges” [CEO World]. “Boeing’s stock rose by 6% on Tuesday morning after the company reported a fourth-quarter net loss that aligned with its recently disclosed preliminary results. The plane maker closed out a challenging year marked by significant financial setbacks, safety investigations, and a workers’ strike… After the report’s release, Boeing shares initially showed little movement in premarket trading. However, they surged after the market opened, recently trading at $186.49. The stock had entered the day down nearly 15% over the past 12 months.”
Manufacturing: “What Investors Found to Like in Boeing’s Tea Leaves” [Wall Street Journal]. “Overall, however, it appears that markets are no longer paying close attention to the minutiae of Boeing’s financial metrics. This is understandable, since brokers themselves are all over the place: 2025 free cash flow estimates range from negative $7.3 billion to a much smaller $1.2 billion burn. No other large commercial-aerospace firm offers such a huge degree of uncertainty. Despite much anticipation, Boeing didn’t provide financial targets for 2025. So what is it that investors like? Executives did say that free cash flow should be positive in the second half of the year as the many parked jets accumulated during years of trouble are finished and shipped to customers. Also, MAX deliveries for January are shaping up to be in the high 30s. With supply-chain constraints easing, the closely watched target of producing 38 MAXs a month is looking achievable this year. Crucially, new CEO Kelly Ortberg has given himself room to maneuver by ending the strike, issuing $24 billion in equity—more than twice what was initially expected—and focusing on quality control both at Boeing and its supplier Spirit AeroSystems. ‘The work at Spirit during the strike has really paid off,’ he told analysts Tuesday. ‘That team has done a great job of improving the overall performance and quality of the fuselages.’” Hmm. Concluding: “Investors are correctly looking beyond short-term noise, and hoping that 2025 will be the year in which ‘Mr. Fix-it’ finally puts Boeing on the recovery path. So far, though, this remains a mostly unquantifiable assumption.” • Ortberg soothes the analysts.
Mr. Market:
The fact that, following the DeepSeek ascendancy, uranium stocks fell 11% (on the ‘fears’ that the vast expansion of data centres may be unnecessary, rendering nuclear power less attractive), reveals how deeply in the void of madness the stock market had fallen…
— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) January 28, 2025
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 44 Fear (previous close: 39 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 41 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 27 at 1:49:14 PM ET.
Gallery
Geometrical:
Wassily Kandinsky, Odessa Port pic.twitter.com/I3AYGey7uR
— Impressions (@impression_ists) January 28, 2025
Groves of Academe
We’re empowering the worst of the worst:
Don’t worry about pausing your tenure clock. The board eliminated tenure. And your program.
— Associate Deans (@ass_deans) January 28, 2025
“Top AI Investor Says Goal Is to Crash Human Wages” [Futurism]. “In a recent tweet, [Marc Andreessen,] the American billionaire investor casually proclaimed that AI must ‘crash’ everyone’s wages before it can deliver us an economic utopia — one that’ll definitely happen, and certainly not create a permanent underclass of have-nots…. ‘A world in which human wages crash from AI — logically, necessarily — is a world in which productivity growth goes through the roof, and prices for goods and services crash to near zero,’ Andreessen wrote. ‘Consumer cornucopia. Everything you need and want for pennies.’ So fret not, lowly laborer: you may be destined for financial ruin, but paradise is right around the corner. Pinky promise.” • “Near,” as in “near zero,” is doing rather a lot of work. If I’ve got zero, “near zero” might as well be on the moon. Or on Mars.
Oof. Dad.
I had to google the provinces to get this.
You … outdid yourself. This is indeed a terrible map. pic.twitter.com/FczhRQ0A1G
— Lefteris Karapetsas | Hiring for @rotkiapp (@LefterisJP) January 28, 2025
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