Bird Song of the Day
Patient readers, this Water Cooler is a bit abbreviated, because I need to hustle along and post on Trump’s memecoin (! (and Melania’s (!!))). –lambert
Brown Thrasher, Rondeau PP–South Point Trail East, Chatham-Kent, Ontario, Canada. Sounds like a highway in the background, or a waterfall, but the bird is quite virtuousic. (This is the old-fashioned kind where the birder puts the metadata at the end of the tape, verbally.)
It occurred to me that dead birds falling from the sky would be one good leading indicator of bird flu, and then that such data could and should be crowd-sourced, so I went to look for it, and found dbird.com, fit for purpose, but oriented toward collisions (as with airplanes or glass buildings), not dead birds as such. There were 6480 reports in 2024.
In Case You Might Miss…
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
Democrat gavage means my timeline is stuffed with horrid, self-congratulatory material like this:
Vice President @KamalaHarris has had a historic four years.
🗳Set a new record for the most tie-breaking votes cast in Senate history as Vice President
🏛️Led the first-ever White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention
🏥First Vice President to visit a reproductive health… pic.twitter.com/4TTeJSYfa9— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) January 19, 2025
That’s Kamala’s #1 accomplishment? Sitting a new record for casting the most tie-breaking votes?
Meanwhile, a Democrat with some actual accomplishments, even if Biden never ran on them (in a populist year, yet):
While at @FTC, I’ve focused on enforcing the law without fear or favor & using all our tools to promote fair, honest, competitive markets.
Grateful to my senior team & the staff who delivered so many wins for Americans.
A summary of what we accomplished:https://t.co/5LqTlTbN3d pic.twitter.com/nNo3kl7KFg
— Lina Khan (@linakhanFTC) January 20, 2025
X Community Notes for the win:
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
It occurs to me to wonder if what was done with Google bombs could be done with Grok, given that Grok incorporates real time data algorithmically.
“Biden pardons Fauci, Milley and the Jan. 6 committee in effort to guard against ‘revenge’ by Trump” [Associated Press]. ” President Joe Biden on Monday pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci, retired Gen. Mark Milley and members of the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, in an extraordinary use of the powers of the presidency in his final hours to guard against potential “revenge” by the incoming Trump administration…. Biden, a Democrat, has used the power in the broadest and most untested way possible: to pardon those who have not even been investigated. His decision lays the groundwork for an even more expansive use of pardons by Trump, a Republican, and future presidents. While the Supreme Court last year ruled that presidents enjoy broad immunity from prosecution for what could be considered official acts, the president’s aides and allies enjoy no such shield. There is concern that future presidents could use the promise of a blanket pardon to encourage allies to take actions they might otherwise resist for fear of running afoul of the law.”
“The Key Questions Trump Must Answer Before His Inauguration” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “[T]he unofficial but potentially very powerful Department of Government Efficiency initiative Trump delegated to First Buddy Elon Musk and his tech-bro sidekick Vivek Ramaswamy could very quickly interfere with a smooth transition to Trump 2.0. Already DOGE is deploying staff to be ’embedded’ in every federal agency to root out inefficiency and massively cut costs, which will be an unwelcome distraction for the Trump appointees taking over these entities. The new president needs to make it clear immediately what if any official status these self-appointed commissars will enjoy and how (if at all) their recommendations will be meshed with the budgetary and policy work of the new administration. Otherwise, a truly nasty intra-MAGA civil war could break out across the entire landscape of the federal government.” • “Commissar” is the right word, implying as it does a party structure parallel to the government.
* * * “Gabbard deserves to be confirmed ASAP” [Douglas MacKinnon, The Hill]. From last week: “On Ukraine and other controversial issues, Gabbard is in lockstep with Trump and unafraid to take on the conventional wisdom of the entrenched elites or their insatiable desire to drain the Treasury — and American taxpayers — by continually putting America last as they seek to engage in armed conflict around the world. As for Gabbard’s ‘propaganda’ about Ukraine, let us also remember it is the same ‘propaganda’ being offered up by the likes of President-elect Trump, Vice President-elect JD Vance and HHS nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is a message ‘propaganda’ just because it seeks to end the bloodshed in Ukraine and bring peace to the region. [sic]” The period should be a question mark, a typo that indicates to me that MacKinnon was writing from a place of genuine belief. More: “A strategy which, as Trump has continually and rightfully pointed out, has led us to the edge of World War III. Gabbard is an exceptional nominee who does not deserve to be ‘slow-rolled’ by Democrats on the path to her confirmation. The people have spoken, and Trump deserves his nominees to be put in place as soon as possible.”
“For fear of finding something worse: Trump and the end of the global rules-based order” [The Hill]. “If these [Rules-Based Order] institutions are simply cast aside, the U.S. will, for now, retain its hegemonic position. It is the world’s largest economy — bigger than China, Japan and Germany, its closest competitors, put together — and spends more on defense than the next four countries combined. Where might is right, the U.S. is mightiest of all. That may not always be so. If the American economy falters, or its military power is matched or eclipsed, Trump may have placed the country for which he espouses such love in a world where there are no longer rules or safeguards for anyone. The president-elect is not a known fan of writer and politician Hilaire Belloc, but he should remember the fate of the eponymous boy in the poem, ‘Jim’ — he ran away from his nurse’s care, and was eaten by a lion. Jim’s father warned the other children to ‘attend / To James’s miserable end / And always keep a-hold of Nurse / For fear of finding something worse.’” • Indeed.
* * * “My Decade with Donald Trump” [Salena Zito, The Free Press]. This is well worth a read for the detail. This caught my eye: “[T[here was a train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, which led to a devastating leak of toxic waste. I raced to the scene to talk to the people who lived there. And guess who else was there? Donald J. Trump. He had arrived with two 18-wheelers filled with water bottles, and bought everybody around him McDonald’s. He wandered through the town in galoshes, stepping in puddles. You could see the slime and scum in the water. His appearance that day sent a message that was, essentially, I see you. I’m here for you. I’m not leaving you…. I remember scribbling in my notebook that this might be a turning point.”
* * * “WATCH: Village People performs ‘YMCA’ at Trump rally on eve of Inauguration Day” (video) [PBS Newshour, YouTube]. • Personally, I regard this as a very healthy sign.
DOGE
2024 Post Mortem
“‘Lady McBiden’: Alexandra Pelosi Blasts the First Lady” [Politico]. “Since breaking her hip in Europe last month, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been deluged with messages, flowers and calls of concern from heads of state, colleagues in both parties and even royalty, most notably Luxembourg’s Grand Duke Henri, who was hosting her when she fell and has been solicitous through her recovery. Yet it’s who she has not heard from that’s most remarkable, and that has infuriated Pelosi’s friends and family: Joe and Jill Biden…. ‘If I was Lady McBiden, I’d put on my big girl pants, play the long game and think about my husband’s legacy,’ Alexandra Pelosi, the former speaker’s daughter, told me Saturday. ;There aren’t that many people left in America who have something nice to say about Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi is one of them.’ The younger Pelosi made clear she was speaking only for herself. The deafening silence from the White House in response to a request for comment marks the culmination of the bitter feud between the president and onetime speaker, two of the age’s most prominent Democrats and the bookends of the party’s Obama-era high and Trump restoration low.”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
“Coffee as a dietary strategy to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection” [Cell & Bioscience]. “Here, we identified that coffee can inhibit multiple variants of the SARS-CoV-2 infection by restraining the binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), and reducing transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) and cathepsin L (CTSL) activity…. in a human trial of 64 subjects, we identified that coffee consumption (approximately 1–2 cups/day) is sufficient to inhibit infection of multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 entry, suggesting coffee could be a dietary strategy to prevent SARS-CoV2 infection…. Based on the results, we also suggest a coffee-drinking plan for people to prevent infection in the post-COVID-19 era.” • Big if true. Perhaps a reader more expert in evaluating science — junk science? — can take a look. That said, it won’t take a “plan” to get me to drink more coffee.
Elite Maleficence
Mission accomplished:
Heads-up: new CDC data baseline change alters C19 wastewater reporting to artificially reduce community transmission levels. Going forward, wastewater will look like the US has “no C19” per its official (CDC) data. pic.twitter.com/gnI4GHVRPF
— Violet Blue® (@violetblue) January 19, 2025
Out of mind, out of sight. So far as I can tell, there’s no justification for this at all; a new variant could still emerge, destroying the assumption of so-called “endemicity.”
Lambert here: I don’t like a lot of this week’s charts. In wastewater, too many red dots concentrated in the Midwest and the Atlantic coast, so I started circling areas in red, again. New York’s weirdly persistent higher hospitalization rate continues. Traveler positivity is up, and worse, the dominant traveler variants are JN* and KP*, which, while present in the national variants, are very low. And in the two death charts, the projected deaths seem to have leveled out, when in the past they decreased. Nothing earth-shattering, but it does make me queasy, and it’s well after the holiday bump.
| Wastewater | ||
| This week[1] CDC January 10 | Last week[2] CDC (until next week): | |
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| Variants [3] CDC January 18 |  |
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC January 11 |
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| Hospitalization | ||
| New York[5] New York State, data January 16: | National [6] CDC Janurary 16: | |
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| Positivity | ||
| National[7] Walgreens January 13: | Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic January 4: | |
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| Travelers Data | ||
| Positivity[9] CDC December 30: | Variants[10] CDC December 30 | |
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| Deaths | ||
| Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC January 11: | Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC January 11: | |
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LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.
[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.
[4] (ED) A little uptick.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.
[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.
[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.
[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.
[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “Boeing Under Pressure: Activists And Warren Buffett Circle” [Forbes]. “Recent events have complicated the story; activist investors show a strong interest in the business, and reports of Warren Buffett may be looking at a position. With major ramifications for Boeing’s own future as well as for its shareholders and the larger aerospace sector, this confluence of high-profile attention will demand a turning point for the company. The rumor is that activist investors and the great Warren Buffet are circling the company.” And: “Warren Buffett is well known for stressing buying stocks of businesses at prices less than their inherent value, and Boeing is one of those names. Buffett emphasizes businesses with reasonable business concepts, good long-term prospects, consistent earnings power, and capable management. Often driving Buffett to invest in businesses whose stocks are momentarily undervalued by the market, this rigorous approach stresses long-term growth and stability over short-term rewards, but should this be adjusted in the current environment? Buffett’s passion for reputable industrial businesses with a strong competitive advantage, that is, what he describes as ‘moat,’ is well known. Major names in sectors including insurance, energy, and consumer goods abound in his portfolio, where steady returns are usual. Given this backdrop, Boeing might fit Buffett’s investing standards.”
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 38 Fear (previous close: 28 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 26 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 17 at 1:37:47 PM ET.
Photo Book
“‘Abandoned Theatres’ Spotlights the Remains of Small-Town Midwestern Cinemas” [This is Colossal]. • Ruin porn, but none the worse for that:
“Marc Andreessen Seems to Think Hillary Clinton Was Actually President” [Gizmodo].
[P]eople who read the Times transcript saw this when reading the investor’s words:
Andreessen: So you’re in this sandwich from all of your constituents, and then you’ve got the press coming at you. You’ve got the activists coming at you, and then you’ve got the [federal] government coming at you.
Douthat: But wait, the federal government is run by Donald Trump in this period, right?
Andreessen: Not really.
But if you actually listened to the audio, this is what you heard:
Andreessen: So you’re in this sandwich from all of your constituents, and then you’ve got the press coming at you. You’ve got the activists coming at you. And then you’ve got the government coming at you. And of course, and then even, sorry… the federal government… we’ll talk about that more.
Douthat: But wait, the federal government is run by Donald Trump…
Andreessen: Not really.
Douthat: …in this period, right? So this is, I mean, this is the peculiar thing about the narrative, right?
It’s completely normal to clean up a transcript to delete repeated words or “um” and “ah” just to make things easier to read. But deleting an entire line that claims “the federal government radicalized hard under Hillary,” is just ridiculous.
“Fighting for our web” [Molly White, [citation needed]. White runs “Web3 is Going Just Great” (Web3 was the scam the tech bros were running after they started running crypto but before AI. Anyhow: “We can build the web that we want to see, and we can return to that place where the web is a place of wonder, where all of us feel that same burning feeling of excitement as we push the web back towards the wonderful, beautiful, joyful place it ought to be.” • I agree! Worth reading in full.
“Enshittification isn’t caused by venture capital” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “It’s lazy and easy to think that our friends who are stuck on legacy platforms run by Zuckerberg and Musk lack the self-discipline to wean themselves off of these services, or lack the perspective to understand why it’s so urgent to get away from them, or that their ‘hacked dopamine loops’ have addicted them to the zuckermusk algorithms. But if you actually listen to the people who’ve stayed behind, you’ll learn that the main reason our friends stay on legacy platforms is that they care about the other people there more than they hate Zuck or Musk. They rely on them because they’re in a rare-disease support group; or they all coordinate their kids’ little league carpools there; or that’s where they stay in touch with family and friends they left behind when they emigrated; or they’re customers or the audience for creative labor. All those people might want to leave, too, but it’s really hard to agree on where to go, when to go, and how to re-establish your groups when you get somewhere else. Economists call this the ‘collective action problem.’ This problem creates ‘switching costs’ – a lot of stuff you’ll have to live without if you switch from legacy platforms to new ones. The collective action problem is hard to solve and the switching costs are very high.” • Hence the need for data interchange, which challengers like Mastodon allow with ActivityPub, and front-runners like X and Facebook mightily resist,
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From dogwood:
Dogwood writes: “A Puffball Mushroom in our back yard.” Looks like an alien sphere.
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